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Roger J Kerr

Roger J Kerr says business confidence is falling because of the fear of re-imposed lockdowns as Omicron approaches. But he sees the NZD & AUD rising on USD weakness. Still, a tougher 2022 is on the cards, he says
17th Jan 22, 8:31am
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Roger J Kerr says business confidence is falling because of the fear of re-imposed lockdowns as Omicron approaches. But he sees the NZD & AUD rising on USD weakness. Still, a tougher 2022 is on the cards, he says
In his first column for 2022, Roger J Kerr assesses the three major forces driving the relative value of the NZD, and how they are likely to play out in the new year
10th Jan 22, 8:52am
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In his first column for 2022, Roger J Kerr assesses the three major forces driving the relative value of the NZD, and how they are likely to play out in the new year
In his final column for 2021, Roger J Kerr summarises the forces that are expected to propel the Aussie dollar higher in 2022 and the Kiwi dollar with it
20th Dec 21, 8:40am
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In his final column for 2021, Roger J Kerr summarises the forces that are expected to propel the Aussie dollar higher in 2022 and the Kiwi dollar with it
Roger J Kerr says If the RBNZ were doing their job properly they would be putting considerable resources into lobbying, challenging and threatening the Govt of the day on the policies that are at the source of the consistently high non-tradable inflation
13th Dec 21, 8:25am
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Roger J Kerr says If the RBNZ were doing their job properly they would be putting considerable resources into lobbying, challenging and threatening the Govt of the day on the policies that are at the source of the consistently high non-tradable inflation
Roger J Kerr says the latest bout of selling has more to do with the Kiwi dollar closely following the Aussie dollar in the currency markets - and the AUD has been slammed down
6th Dec 21, 8:12am
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Roger J Kerr says the latest bout of selling has more to do with the Kiwi dollar closely following the Aussie dollar in the currency markets - and the AUD has been slammed down
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ stance and rhetoric in its Monetary Policy Statement last week was sufficiently circumspect to force the currency market punters to sell out of their long-NZD positions
29th Nov 21, 8:21am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ stance and rhetoric in its Monetary Policy Statement last week was sufficiently circumspect to force the currency market punters to sell out of their long-NZD positions
Roger J Kerr examines who the likely buyers of New Zealand currency will be over coming months and says there are sufficient positive forces to suggest the Kiwi dollar will appreciate in coming years
22nd Nov 21, 8:12am
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Roger J Kerr examines who the likely buyers of New Zealand currency will be over coming months and says there are sufficient positive forces to suggest the Kiwi dollar will appreciate in coming years
Roger J Kerr says RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr should now 'fess up, grow some gonads and tell the Government and the interest rate markets where to go!'
15th Nov 21, 7:54am
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Roger J Kerr says RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr should now 'fess up, grow some gonads and tell the Government and the interest rate markets where to go!'
Roger J Kerr says the probability of the 'doomsday' scenario for the New Zealand economy in 2022 has arguably gone up a notch
8th Nov 21, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says the probability of the 'doomsday' scenario for the New Zealand economy in 2022 has arguably gone up a notch
Roger J Kerr: 'The implications for the economy and personal wellbeing are becoming increasingly apparent. We are still up sh*t creek without a paddle!'
1st Nov 21, 8:03am
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Roger J Kerr: 'The implications for the economy and personal wellbeing are becoming increasingly apparent. We are still up sh*t creek without a paddle!'
Roger J Kerr sees the future direction of the NZ dollar value as governed by varying doses of good luck and good management
25th Oct 21, 9:23am
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Roger J Kerr sees the future direction of the NZ dollar value as governed by varying doses of good luck and good management
Roger J Kerr says the Government’s previous “smug complacency” has found us out with our pants down
18th Oct 21, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the Government’s previous “smug complacency” has found us out with our pants down
Roger J Kerr says the currency markets are signalling that the performance of the NZ economy over the next 12 months is likely to be inferior to peers and competitors
11th Oct 21, 7:56am
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Roger J Kerr says the currency markets are signalling that the performance of the NZ economy over the next 12 months is likely to be inferior to peers and competitors
Roger J Kerr sees a day of reckoning and crunch-time ahead for the Kiwi dollar
4th Oct 21, 7:55am
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Roger J Kerr sees a day of reckoning and crunch-time ahead for the Kiwi dollar
Roger J Kerr says the important thing from the RBNZ's October 6 rates review will be how the RBNZ sees the NZ economy extracting itself from the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus it has been supported by over the last 18 months
27th Sep 21, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr says the important thing from the RBNZ's October 6 rates review will be how the RBNZ sees the NZ economy extracting itself from the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus it has been supported by over the last 18 months
Roger J Kerr says the foreign exchange markets seem to be taking the view that the historical GDP growth numbers are questionable and the risks ahead for the NZ economy outweigh any positive past performance
20th Sep 21, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the foreign exchange markets seem to be taking the view that the historical GDP growth numbers are questionable and the risks ahead for the NZ economy outweigh any positive past performance
Roger J Kerr tackles the nitty gritty on our current handling of the Covid pandemic, the direction of the economy and what it all means for the future value of the NZ dollar
13th Sep 21, 8:19am
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Roger J Kerr tackles the nitty gritty on our current handling of the Covid pandemic, the direction of the economy and what it all means for the future value of the NZ dollar
Roger J Kerr says our currency seems to have 'zoomed' up too far and too fast, so, a fall seems likely in coming days
6th Sep 21, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says our currency seems to have 'zoomed' up too far and too fast, so, a fall seems likely in coming days
Roger J Kerr suggests John Key and Bill English would have done a better job of managing the current Covid crisis
30th Aug 21, 9:25am
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Roger J Kerr suggests John Key and Bill English would have done a better job of managing the current Covid crisis
Roger J Kerr sees a likely 'sideways shuffle' in the value of the Kiwi dollar and then rising back above US70c in the medium to longer term
23rd Aug 21, 7:59am
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Roger J Kerr sees a likely 'sideways shuffle' in the value of the Kiwi dollar and then rising back above US70c in the medium to longer term
Roger J Kerr says the 'reconnecting to the world' plan announced last week had no targets, no milestones and no objectives that business folk could plan around themselves
16th Aug 21, 8:16am
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Roger J Kerr says the 'reconnecting to the world' plan announced last week had no targets, no milestones and no objectives that business folk could plan around themselves
Roger J Kerr says the stronger US dollar he has consistently expected is now back on track
9th Aug 21, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the stronger US dollar he has consistently expected is now back on track
Roger J Kerr says 'there is no question' global FX markets are differentiating between economies that are highly Covid-vaccinated and those that are not
2nd Aug 21, 8:40am
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Roger J Kerr says 'there is no question' global FX markets are differentiating between economies that are highly Covid-vaccinated and those that are not
Roger J Kerr says the rapid spread of the delta strain has suddenly overshadowed any expectations that the RBNZ will act to tighten monetary policy and increase the OCR at their upcoming meeting on 18 August
26th Jul 21, 8:53am
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Roger J Kerr says the rapid spread of the delta strain has suddenly overshadowed any expectations that the RBNZ will act to tighten monetary policy and increase the OCR at their upcoming meeting on 18 August
Roger J Kerr doesn't see an August OCR hike, seeing stresses building in our regional economies with no overheating, and speculators ready to bet that the NZD is too high especially against the AUD
19th Jul 21, 8:11am
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Roger J Kerr doesn't see an August OCR hike, seeing stresses building in our regional economies with no overheating, and speculators ready to bet that the NZD is too high especially against the AUD