Bonds
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; services PMI expanding, some big corporate stumbles, Fonterra consolidates, Rio Tinto on back foot, swaps gold, NZD firm, & more
19th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; services PMI expanding, some big corporate stumbles, Fonterra consolidates, Rio Tinto on back foot, swaps gold, NZD firm, & more
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
19th Feb 24, 7:53am
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; Resimac ups rates, PMI 'less weak', IAG NZ profits jump, Orr solely inflation-focussed, population soars, swaps little-changed, NZD on hold, & more
16th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; Resimac ups rates, PMI 'less weak', IAG NZ profits jump, Orr solely inflation-focussed, population soars, swaps little-changed, NZD on hold, & more
Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
16th Feb 24, 7:47am
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Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
[updated]
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; no retail rate changes, Crown accounts reveal rising tax take, weak inbound tourism, high demand for NZGBs, swaps ease, NZD firms, & more
15th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; no retail rate changes, Crown accounts reveal rising tax take, weak inbound tourism, high demand for NZGBs, swaps ease, NZD firms, & more
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
15th Feb 24, 7:45am
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; REINZ data soft, FBU dives, ASB profits lower, Tower positive, inflation eases, border arrivals high, swaps up, NZD lower, & more
14th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; REINZ data soft, FBU dives, ASB profits lower, Tower positive, inflation eases, border arrivals high, swaps up, NZD lower, & more
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
14th Feb 24, 7:29am
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Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; QV HPI data out, less concrete poured, inflation expectations retreat, Nikkei 225 surges, swaps hold, NZD dips, & more
13th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; QV HPI data out, less concrete poured, inflation expectations retreat, Nikkei 225 surges, swaps hold, NZD dips, & more
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
13th Feb 24, 7:48am
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; TD rates ease up, house completion fall, Fonterra raises dairy payout indicator, some ugly NZX ugliness, swaps hold, NZD holds, & more
12th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; TD rates ease up, house completion fall, Fonterra raises dairy payout indicator, some ugly NZX ugliness, swaps hold, NZD holds, & more
The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
12th Feb 24, 7:33am
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The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; Westpac trims rates, fewer big renos, Zollner goes full hawk, space center opens, swaps up, NZD firm, & more
9th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; Westpac trims rates, fewer big renos, Zollner goes full hawk, space center opens, swaps up, NZD firm, & more
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
9th Feb 24, 7:41am
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Heartland makes surprise mortgage rate cuts, more houses sell at a loss, Auckland regional fuel tax killed, swaps up, NZD firm, & more
8th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Heartland makes surprise mortgage rate cuts, more houses sell at a loss, Auckland regional fuel tax killed, swaps up, NZD firm, & more
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
8th Feb 24, 7:49am
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; dairy prices rise, meat exports fall, jobless rate little-changed, analyst sees an OCR rise, NAB gets new CEO, swaps up, NZD firm
7th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; dairy prices rise, meat exports fall, jobless rate little-changed, analyst sees an OCR rise, NAB gets new CEO, swaps up, NZD firm
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
7th Feb 24, 7:53am
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes, listings surge, FBU hit, commodity prices hold up, record bank funding levels, swaps up, NZD holds, & more
5th Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes, listings surge, FBU hit, commodity prices hold up, record bank funding levels, swaps up, NZD holds, & more
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
5th Feb 24, 7:46am
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; Barfoots weak in January, building consents weak, car sales soft, consumer confidence low, retail weak, swaps stable, NZD firm, & more
2nd Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; Barfoots weak in January, building consents weak, car sales soft, consumer confidence low, retail weak, swaps stable, NZD firm, & more
US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
2nd Feb 24, 7:50am
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US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; a hot 2yr home loan rate, household living costs higher than CPI, non-performing loans up swaps stable, NZD firm, & more
1st Feb 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; a hot 2yr home loan rate, household living costs higher than CPI, non-performing loans up swaps stable, NZD firm, & more
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar
1st Feb 24, 7:49am
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no retail rate changes, business confidence up, TDs very popular, dairy prices rise, house lending up, swaps unchanged, NZD firm, & more
31st Jan 24, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no retail rate changes, business confidence up, TDs very popular, dairy prices rise, house lending up, swaps unchanged, NZD firm, & more