Westpac's chief economist abruptly changes tack and now forecasts a house price rally early next year, with prices to climb 1.5% in the first quarter; RBNZ was the 'game changer'

Westpac's Chief Economist Dominick Stephens has abruptly changed tack and is now forecasting a "vigorous" first quarter of 2019, with house prices climbing 1.5%.

In Westpac's latest Home Truths newsletter Stephens - who has been gloomy on the house market, picking a drop in prices in the second half of this year and a "modest" rise next year - says the reversal in forecast is due to the RBNZ's announcements last week, and the fact that the central bank is now nearer the trigger point of reducing official interest rates.

"The game has now changed," Stephens says.

"We are now forecasting essentially flat prices over the remainder of 2018, followed by a sharp, but short-lived, rise in prices for early 2019."

Stephens says financial markets reacted to last week’s Reserve Bank announcements by slashing wholesale fixed interest rates.

"That could cause a drop in two-year fixed mortgage rates of around a fifth of a percentage point over the coming few months.

"A drop in mortgage rates of that magnitude, if it comes to pass, will have a powerful effect on the housing market."

Stephens says that "adding fuel to the fire", the RBNZ had also made it clear that it is considering loosening its LVR mortgage lending restrictions in light of the cooler housing market and more subdued lending by banks.

"We continue to expect an LVR loosening will be announced in November and implemented in January, boosting the market early next year."

Stephens said the market outlook is now a battle between two powerful opposing forces – Government policies that will cool the market versus Reserve Bank policy that will boost it.

"That makes the outlook particularly uncertain.

"We can be confident that a drop in mortgage rates will have a positive effect, because we have seen that many times in the past. But we simply do not know how much of a negative impact the foreign buyer ban will have. Similarly, although it is straightforward to estimate the eventual impact of tax changes on house prices, it is impossible to tell just how much the anticipation of future tax change is impacting the market right now."

Therefore Stephens says the Westpac economists'  "best forecast" at this point is that nationwide average house prices will remain fairly subdued over the remainder of 2018.

"Within that average we would expect Auckland prices to fall while prices in most other regions rise slowly. That is because the foreign buyer ban will affect Auckland more.

"But for early 2019, we are now pencilling in a vigorous first quarter with a 1.5% house price increase nationwide. By that time we would expect lower mortgage rates, looser LVR limits and an improving economy to be providing a positive counterweight to the foreign buyer ban and tax changes."

Stephens ends on a rather more cautionary note, however.

"Lest our readers get too excited, remember that Home Truths retains an unrelenting negative outlook on house prices over the longer term. The Reserve Bank won’t be able to hold interest rates down forever – causing rates to drop now will set us up for a larger increase down the track.

"We expect mortgage rates will rise in the 2020s, and when that happens house prices will take a hit. We are forecasting a house price decline of almost 3% for 2020."

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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75 Comments

I can't see much of any OCR cut getting passed on to the homeowner. I shouldn't think an OCR cut would do much to boost the housing market, in the current environment.

It would definitely give a boost relative to its trajectory without it.

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Last ditch attempt by foreign buyer lobby to stall the OIA which seems inevitable now. Since PM Jacinda is back to work, the Bill has kicked up pace.

The real estate lobby too is gasping even at straws to prop the market. Not surprised if parties switch bugles abruptly to lend support.

Hi Jaz

Looks like a failed last ditch attempt to stop the Bill. So 'little ole NZ' politicians have had the strength of character to pass a bill that every other Western government should have done, but lacked the Kahunas to do...

The boss has only been back at work a week, god bless her... she's got bigger balls and more firepower than the cumulative offerings of the last administration..

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The economists did not factor in the impact on housing from a fall in employment / income security from a cooling economy whatsoever. The PMI and PSI both suggest a fall in employment intentions across the board. But bankers and economists will try to talk up a falling market. What about the impact from a slowing Chinese economy, boiling emerging market financial crisis and an overdue housing correction in Australia?

This just sounds like a bunch of bankers and economists trying to keep their money mills running by talking up a tanking market.

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...Westpac just forecasting more adrenaline to make the dead cat bounce. Findings on the FMA investigations into NZ Banks lending standards are yet to be known. It might mean cheaper money, but its likely to be even harder to get. Just look at how much lending standards have tightened across the ditch and the effect that's had on house prices.

Curbs on reckless bank borrowing which partially at least fuelled runaway house prices, banks greater due diligence on debt serviceabiltity may well see many borrowers ineligibe.Or even where loan approval is forthcoming,it may be for far lesser amount.

Would not this be a bigger influence on house prices rather than a trifling percentage cut in OCR?

Go figure out on your own, you are the best judge.

Soothsayers,tarot card readers,palmists,astrologers,crystal-ball gazers all have one thing in common.They cannot predict when a sucker will come along to pay for their next meal.

Should I include economists in that group?

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Dominick has correctly called 10 of the last 4 recessions and 5 of the last 9 booms.
Westpac have a lot of money tied up in the housing market, and any drop in prices would put pressure on Westpac's loan book with bad results all round.
Banks are all the same. They give you umbrellas when the sun is shining, and take them back when it rains.

I approve this message.

Also, I have bridge to sell this economist.

BigDaddy, nicely put!

TM2, I suggest you read the last line of BigDaddys post and take heed..

Agree. He's all over the place. The downward pressures exceed the upwards pressures. There will be no dead cat bounce.

Big Daddy - you’re showing a naive lack of knowledge of how bank economists operate - populist admittedly, but very uninformed. In my obviously much closer experience with them, integrity is very important to them but sure they all get calls wrong ocassionally. But from what I can tell of Stephen’s forecast’s hes been the most bearish on NZ growth in the past 2yrs (and correct) and the bank with the longest delay in its forecasts for the first rate hike (correct and now possibly even too conservative). The difference with this forum’s opinions is that no one documents and reviews them - it would be an interesting exercise.

Is this the same Westpac who in May had a Chairman who suggested that 20-30 years of flat prices would be a more preferable outcome to a major collapse?

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/93884/westpac-nz-ceo-david-mclean-co...

He is citing LVR and interest rates for his 'new' prediction. So he is talking about (more) credit-driven upswing in the market. The assumption could be that reserve bank would ease the capital requirements of banks as well to lend more money ??

Aah well... I'm losing the faith in the whole system ...

Hi Greg

Despair not..

Dominic is merely using the only tool he / or the reserve bank have left, to talk it up and see if they can spook a few more kids into the market to prop it all up. Notice how quiet 'Stuff' is today... They don't want to scare the kids out of buying.. Can you imagine if someone posted the news about a 9% drop in the median price of a Wellignton home in just one month (55K).... And that is in a market where there is a genuine supply shortage, what happens when all the Spring stock comes to the market, given how weak demand is?

They have to keep everything 'very hush hush,' because even the dumb would get scared if they heard about even a slice of the 'new' reality. Banks will want to lend more money but it'll be interesting to see how tight the criteria becomes.

This is happening everywhere and has gathered pace since the start of the year. The table on page three of this report from Knight Frank shows the impact to end of March 2018... Note that where prices have grown year on year the rate of growth stalled in most places slowed markedly in the first three months of 2018. Where prices were already falling, the pace of decline magnified in the first three months. The credit taps are slowly being turned off.

http://content.knightfrank.com/research/323/documents/en/prime-global-ci...

Nic, We will agree on the numbers as we can think logically and analytically. But I guess this is not science , where we believe energy can not be created, only converted from one form to another and the numbers have to match in the end. For these guys, they create wealth out of nothing. What happened to the bankers/paid economist who were running the show prior to GFC? They are still top consultants and experts ,right ?

Greg

It would appear that when the regulators ended the game in the Northern Hemisphere they all flocked South and with a little help from China (to mask the folly) just carried on playing the fiddle. Exactly the same game, high debt to income multiples, massive amounts of interest only leverage and loose credit controls.. And while they played the fiddle the government and regulators got fat on good lunches out and expensive wine.

And now we have the fallout which is our 'Falling Star' economy!

(edit typo 18.15)

Nic :

Exactly the same game, high debt to income multiples, massive amounts of interest only leverage and loose credit controls.

Is NZ mortgages are being sold as CDOs like in US ?

I doubt it, but nor were Northern Rock or RBS's loan books. Their issues were the quantity of of high loan to value and high multiples of income lending which were quickly exposed in the downturn and many of which have never recovered...

I doubt it, but nor were Northern Rock or RBS's loan books

So even if there is are some defaults, it may not have global economic effect.
And the US house price crash was a bit contained by Fed/US govt via TARP or something ,right ? It was the CDO/CDS was the root-cause of global financial crisis , i thought ?

CDO/CDS were effectively leverage on top of leverage. The underlying problem was still NINJA loans and mad speculation. If you want to kill a couple of hours "The Big Short" is on google/youtube movies for $5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCTtbLhnRUU

How old are you Greg? Did you miss the that last one? The next one will be bigger, would you like a coffee to discuss it?

Nic,I'm in 30-35 age band. I wasn't really following finance/economics.. Watched big-short an year ago; but couldn't understand much :)
Will skip coffee.. I'm saving hard by sacrificing coffee and avocadoes :-P

The RBNZ may succeed at bringing more FHBs into the housing market with looser LVR restrictions but I seriously doubt LVR tweaks will do much to reinstate investment confidence in overvalued properties amid factors pointing towards an economy poised for a post-cycle slowdown.

If the GFC taught us anything it is that speculation on capital gains popped the housing bubble in 2008, not families buying their first homes.

The RBNZ may succeed at bringing more FHBs into the housing market with looser LVR restrictions

Why would RBNZ would want to do that, without really having a strong economy ? to help bankers to do more loans, there by increasing the damage of any possible crash - so that the authorities/govt will take every possible step to avoid the crisis ?

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Being in manufacturing business i can see and feel the slow down. It is not only me but basically everyone else i speak to - both customers and suppliers. If this will continue very quickly it will be reflected in other economy sectors. Tenants will look for alternative (cheaper) rentals, people will start to sell rentals, there will be some issues with the mortgage repayments ... i do not want to be negative but 'I have bad feelings about this' ...

Yeah, and monkeys will fly out of his arse.

Trying to gee up the livestock down on the debt farm? If only I had a nicer barn, all my problems would disappear?

The words "vigorous" and "housing market" suggest a tumescent DGZ standing outside the Barfoots Shortland St office late at night, dressed in a full-length raincoat. If Dominick made that call, I think we'd have more general agreement from our commentators here.

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Oxymoron when a banking economist warns of price rally in 2019.

Hurry folks get out and buy properties now before the rally, don't wait too long !! Oh....and by the way please ignore all other warnings from world leading economists including the IMF who continue to chime warnings on NZ housing market as still one of the most over valued markets in the world next to HONG KONG!! 2nd to Honk Kong in fact.........Interesting assumption Westpac, but like most economists much to much theory , far too many graphs and charts and very little practicality. Get out from behind the desk and engage the public....

Bank economists are basically puppets for banks' communications strategies. Sure, he's probably on good coin, but it's no different than selling your soul for a crust. One unexpected event and you're pretty much put away never to be heard of again.

I still cant get my head around those that are still stacking housing on interest only loans, and the banks that are approving that lending. When the crap hits the fan the people offering professional wealth advise to stack debt in this way should face the same scrutiny as the directors of the finance companies (....jail).

Overseas buyer stop coming done, time to focus on launching DTi. Debt addicts need to be saved from them selves (and the rest of us from the chaos they cause) just like those that cant save needed kiwi saver.

I still cant get my head around those that are still stacking housing on interest only loans, and the banks that are approving that lending

Quite simple. Just like any business, the banks have sales targets and IO lending has been an easy one to get across the line. These targets affect everyone in the banks' livelihood and value as an employee.

That 21 year old with 11 properties @ $3 mill + with $1mill equity (in 3 years) has come out again today to defend himself against all the haters.

At least he did the right thing on 30 July 2018 and register his property investment business with the companies office. Wouldn’t want people to think you’re doing things below board.

hahahahahahah ... I am really amused by this article and Dominick Stephens's Flip flopping !.... and we thought for a moment that economists are better than gosibists or tea leave readers .. but he is like a fortune teller waking up to what RBNZ saw and measured while he was sleeping at the wheel and reading to other customers.

So some of you reckon that he is now on the money while he wasn't in May ? and others think that he is just toeing the line and don't like to be left with egg on his face or "things have changed", lol.

This fresh prediction has also left out the effects of wage improvement ,WFF, continuation of supply shortage and immigration ... He just stated the obvious when he felt that the bottom of the market in July was not low enough to make a dent and knows well that prices will start rising from here and peak in the summer - as they always do - - he knows that there will be NO KB by then when hopefuls realise that it was a bad JOKE, and more organic growth in population pushing demand up.

My take is that he did not want to be the village idiot among all other economists sounding out the opposite of his May predictions and finally got inline.

Many of us here almost know for certain that 1-3% ( adjusted to inflation) rise is on order as long as we have the CoL around and nothing is really made to address the housing issue. the rest is just cause and effect ...

Enjoy the ride, it will be a smooth one .

Oh, BTW.... Rents will not come down for so many reasons and that ( for now) has nothing to do with house prices ... so let's separate the issues ... do not be surprised if Landlords ask for another 2 - 3% rent rise next year....

In your expert opinion, would demand for houses come down if the economy and job growth lose steam or does the housing market function in isolation from the rest of the economy? Is our housing market intertwined with the falling Aussie market or are the two unrelated despite having the same major financial institutions and credit cycles? Would migrants still be pouring in when low business confidence eventually leads to lackluster investment in growth and expansion?

Why do we tend to apply extreme measures everytime this matter is discussed?

the Housing market does not work in isolation with the rest of the economy - only a fool would believe that, but just like anything else, you need to build up enough pressure and force to bend a market or crush it. And that is not allowed to happen - that is when the noobs will be pushing their luck !!

In my view, we have nothing to do with Aus, Canada, or any other markets... I repeat, housing is not shares and bitcoin investment it is a need and shelter which you don't change according to fashion and trends elsewhere...we do not get paid in AUD or aus salaries, we are taxed differently, cycles affect us in different ways and magnitudes, we do not share the same market fundamentals, some here chose to pick up what suits them to prove a biased view, but reality is different. So who cares if Sydney dropped by 10%? and why should we follow suit and run for the exits?

Migrants apparently became a necessity, even this CoL proved that they are and it is undesirable to close this tap ( they will tell you that they are listening to business re skilled migrants .. dadada!) but the tap is still open and promises are broken... ! Migrants are pouring because they want a clean,civilised, free, and modern country not everyone is here to invest and make money, most chinese bring in money and spend ( buy) their residency and kids education and lifestyle... that part has very little to do with business confidence. In fact most of chinese small business investments are loss leader and they are happy to do that as it is the path ( and small price) for residency.

business confidence will improve as soon as the noobs limit the damage and stop messing around with the economy or as soon as they leave the helm in 2020, whichever comes first. Foreign investors follow what this CoL is doing, they have no ideological skin in our game - they are here to make money.

This CoL will lose because of their wrong doings, they are doing the best they can to look pretty with their voters - the mission is to close the gap and rob Peter to pay Paul and get them both to pay more taxes in the future to cover the cost of the festive party they are running now. sooner or later they will be caught when all their promises fail to eventuate.

Oh, BTW.... Rents will not come down for so many reasons and that ( for now) has nothing to do with house prices ... so let's separate the issues ... do not be surprised if Landlords ask for another 2 - 3% rent rise next year....

Don't agree. Rent rises are fixed by the ability of the tenants to pay. If rents increase, less money is spent into the consumer economy and businesses start firing people or hiring people on lower incomes. This starts a negative feedback loop, which impacts rental and house prices.

Disagree, I am not surprised by the ability of renters paying rent after WFF and wage improvements even in the private sector -

when you deal with tenants every day ( like myself) you will be surprised too - but I am talking Auckland and Hamilton -- two booming cities - not sure about stagnant regions

You can disagree all you like. It's nothing more than an opinion. And a naive one at that.

The fact is that rents are heavily anchored to income/productivity. There is no arguing with that.

@ecobird

you deal with tenants every day ( like myself) you will be surprised too - but I am talking Auckland and Hamilton -- two booming cities - not sure about stagnant regions

But you -the lords - have to be little bit considerate too. I know in Hamilton and Auckland, many families renting and having other flat mates to share the rent. Please do not force them not to have extra flatmates.

Ofcourse the standard of living could be affected ; but thats the reality we are heading into. :-)

Hi Greg,

never meant to say that I, we are forcing them to have extra flatmates, rent increases of 2-3% at the most to cover running costs is not excessive nor ill considerate ... but Lords do not run charities and everyone needs to pay his fair share in life. Rents are miles away from where they should be and most Landlords are usually patient.

Sorry if my comment sounded like I am one of those stone hearted people, which I am not .... but seems that "considerate trend" is very sensitive and dominant here.

Rents are miles away from where they should be

On the basis of what?
If it's true, doesn't that in fact imply that landlords actually have very little pricing power in the market?

You should think through your tweets a bit better...

He fantasising about when everybody gets $600/week accomodation supplements so he can raise his rents even further.. but doesn't realise that sooner or later a govt is going to look at what is being paid out in accomodation supplements and recoup those costs from landlords or property owners in some form. No point taxing those that are renting, they'll just need more of it back to pay the rent.

Well, I do not rent to people on the benefit or WFF supplement ... I rent to people who are willing to meet my rents and my rental conditions ... I am not waiting for the Gov to adjust or change AS, So all of you are wrong if you think that all tenants are beneficiaries !!

That said, rent has a very long way to catch up with the costs involved in providing a house to rent ... whether that is doable or recoupable for some is another story but does not negate that fact.

hope you all feel better now !!

So none of your tenants earn below ~$99k combined with a couple of kids? Because if you have two kids you get WFF if you earn less than $99k. I think you don't have a freaking clue honestly.

And no, I don't think all renters are beneficiaries, We're not, nor are many of the renters I know. But you do seem like you would slot straight into the slumlord mold.

But good to see you admit you fail at basic business acumen, since "rent has a very long way to catch up with the costs involved in providing a house to rent " .. Certainly implies you are running at a massive loss.. or you don't actually have a clue of the costs of running your "business"

You must feel better now that you had these words out of your system ...

Whether I have clues or not in running my business is my own business, not yours and wasn't waiting for your stupid evaluation and assessment !!

Rent has a very long way to Go ... why are you renting ? why not buy a house and rent it to yourself to understand what I'm talking about ?... why don't you ask a friend, relative who bought a house and ask him what it costs him to rent it or is it feasible if he rents it out at market prices today and how much extra would that cost ??

All my tenants are on 100k+ combined income and No, they don't have Kids ... and they are not flatmates ... My properties are not suitable for people on the DOL, or relying on the state to live or families with children and pets !! that is what HNZ and state house are for and others landlords who chose to spend endlessly on their rentals repair.

Some smart people like yourself have no clue as to who is out there renting & why .... they could not see further from the tip of their noses. ... you think that anyone who could pay more than a 1/3 of his income should buy a house rather than rent ... well, wake up and open your eyes and ears ...you might be disappointed !

Slumlord mold ?? lol,

In my early days I used to rent to all and sundry, and had my share of endless repairs and cleaning up after idiots, reckless and **** people ... No more!

I decided to buy new and refurbish the old ones to very high standards to only accommodate people who can appreciate it .

All my properties are modern, healthy, and super clean , a delight to live in and entertain ... My handpicked tenants usually only leave because they bought a house or moving out of town ... hence I dictate above average market rents and attract top tenants who appreciate these kinds of properties ... that filters out all others who don't ..... I never had a vacancy of more than 1 week in the last 4 years ... usually, new tenants move in the same weekend the old ones are leaving .... so you are wrong again buddy !!

The world is much wider than your horizon it seems, so open your eyes before you open your trap, it is possible that you could be wrong - if you care that is !!

Yep, looks like I found a raw nerve. Lol

It doesn't matter if the renter is a WFF/AS beneficiary, at all. Market rent is influenced by those that do receive it. Take it away and market rent will decrease - That's a certainty.

Surely someone of your expertise understands this?

It become more apparent by the day that many of the property spruikers on this site are more x-spurt than expert.

With the way the economic cycle is going and the changes to the property market, I think many of them are going to come to the realisation that luck and expertise are two very different things.

If he is implying that rents should rise to house price levels, than he is further from truth than the other twitter-warriors out there. So many things wrong with that statement.
1) People are willing to buy multiple houses beyond their reach due to its allure of asset ownership and income-generating properties thus shooting up demand; does not apply to renting which is a merely lease contract
2) Buyers are more flexible to higher house prices when credit is cheaply available; people don't borrow to pay rent unless in extreme situations
New Zealand is already the worst performer in the OECD on housing costs to disposable income: http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/new-zealand/

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With all due respect, your statement that rents are “miles away from where they should be” is just nonsense. Rents reflect both the level of incomes and the relative scarcity of accomodation. A bank won’t lend you money to pay rent. Rents are effectively capped by income levels. The problem of hopelessly inadequate rental yields is not that rents are too low, but that prices are too high as those prices have been pumped up by loose mortgage credit. The suggestion that rents are “low” because landlords are generally engaging in acts of charity is laughable, they just can’t charge any more as the tenants can’t or won’t pay. To return to historic yields in Auckland would require rents to double or prices to be slashed. I think I know which is more likely. Rents have for years shown steady but unspectacular growth in Auckland (say 2.5% over inflation), that’s not going to change any time soon,

Ditto :)

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It would appear Eco Bird has resorted to trolling with fictional multi paragraph outbursts. Don't believe a word he says. Tenants have their limits and am sure he's discovered that on several occasions.

Yeah , sorry Boys .. we are on a totally different wavelength

it is normal to call it trolling when you don't understand what you read.

Please believe RP, he is the Guru of all ... follow him and ignore me ..i am not here to spoon feed you at all ... remember me when you start weeping !!

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Eco Bird, honestly, I think you're making half this stuff up just to get a reaction. If your lifestyle has sprung a leak it's understandable to lash out. If it hasn't then, why are you so upset dude? On the day you signed all those mortgage documents, you were grinning from ear to ear. What's changed?

Without all those willing NZ based depositors youde likely be paying much higher rates. You might want to treat us TD losers with a little more respect ;-)

Hahaha ...I am still laughing all the way to the bank every day mate -- I didn't realise that your TD is supporting my mortgages !! bummer ..lol

BTW, I do respect everyone including idiots but as much as they deserve RP, TD investors or otherwise. you seem to take everything said here very personally ....don't get upset mate, we just give free word to the wise.

I am not upset at all - in fact I am thinking of heading away on holiday for a week to relax and dry my bones out ... where do you suggest RP? Melbourne or Japan? maybe Thailand? ... I know, let me go and check out Sydney's prices and see what they are up to ... maybe the market there has become tempting enough to buy a pad there , who knows !

If you are such a well off and successful landlord why do you waste so much of your time whingeing on this website? Surely you'd have better things to do with your time and vast wealth.
Which makes me think you are just a troll

Sorry to disturb you guys, I didn't realise that this was a forum for whingers - so please excuse my interruption!. indeed i have better things to do than replying to some 'smart' chaps here.

I remember that this site was a place where people exchanged views and opinion about markets, investments and the like to learn and discuss...

but, since last year, it has turned into a bazaar harbouring some losers, speculators who sold property early, and clueless Trollers and attention seekers ...

As you were gents.

we are forcing them to have extra flatmates

Yeah ; thanks . The apartment block (6 units) near my place, had 7 cars 2 years ago. Now its full of cars :-) and some cars parked on the grass verges outside - I think there are no fines yet for that :-P

So the problem is that
1. Standard of living goes down
2. Rule of law goes down
3. International index(s) down
4. Passport rank goes down
5. Quality of migrant goes down
6. Rich /poor divide goes UP

Interesting times


Disagree, I am not surprised by the ability of renters paying rent after WFF and wage improvements even in the private sector

If you disagree, you don't understand the basics of how the economy works and should probably steer clear of property investment as this is fundamental stuff, particularly when signs are already there that manufacturers and FMCG brands are already stretched. Furthermore, income growth is benign.

I think his overlords have told him to put out something a bit more "positive" before the unemployment rate goes up by 1

Listen to these economist clowns at own peril. These f ers know jack sh*t. If they knew what they were doing they'll be super rich.

Welcome back Chessmaster.

What are your thoughts about the foreign buyer ban?

I think these guys are more or less right. Credit acceleration already looked like it was going to become positive later this year, and that was before the monetary easing statement from the RBNZ! I cant see Auckland's 1.5M+ suburbs gaining much ground. My crystal ball shows a mean reversion of the historical provinces/Auckland house price ratio over the next year or two. I think the top Auckland suburbs like Remuera and Herne Bay will take a pounding. That's probably a good thing, unless you're Mike Hosking.

Hope so, always thought Herne bay was overrated. I have lived in Remuera before and it's changed a lot for the better. More diverse now. There is not much for sale there though and I can't see those suburbs getting under mortgage pressure.

They will now!

it may have gone positive, or it may have flattened out at zero..

It'll be about as vigorous as an obese 90 year-old-with two hip replacements and two knee replacements now that the foreign buyer ban has been passed.

Deleted

Seems odd to me making such a Pacific call 1.5% ? An upswing in my opinion is the other side of a dip or possible short recession. To many uncertainties for the market to recover so soon. The possible drop in rates will help support the market in my view.

'Seems odd to me making such a Pacific call 1.5% ?'

You should stop posting here Shoreman, or move over (double quick) to 'Stuff'.... A 'Pacific' call of a 'specific' call? One's an Ocean the other may be a fair point.... You however are very lost, possibly in a big 'Ocean' of people who are a lot smarter than you.