Days to the General Election: 24
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Rodney Dickens

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Rodney is the MD of Strategic Risk Analysis, which prepares and sells reports on housing, construction, monetary policy and exchange rates.
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Member for
10 years 7 months

Articles by Rodney Dickens

18th Dec 19, 2:07pm
39
Economist Rodney Dickens wonders if bank lending criteria are the reason the housing market remains sluggish despite interest rate cuts
Economist Rodney Dickens wonders if bank lending criteria are the reason the housing market remains sluggish despite interest rate cuts
18th Dec 19, 2:07pm
11th Oct 19, 10:02am
12
Rodney Dickens identifies the structural shift the RBNZ made during the GFC that means the effective OCR is much higher than the actual OCR, explaining why our retail interest rates are at current levels
Rodney Dickens identifies the structural shift the RBNZ made during the GFC that means the effective OCR is much higher than the actual OCR, explaining why our retail interest rates are at current levels
11th Oct 19, 10:02am
3rd Sep 19, 10:00am
2
Rodney Dickens crunches the numbers around the sharp drop in our factory PMI to see if it is signaling an imminent fall off in economic growth
Rodney Dickens crunches the numbers around the sharp drop in our factory PMI to see if it is signaling an imminent fall off in economic growth
3rd Sep 19, 10:00am
11th Aug 19, 3:41pm
12
Rodney Dickens says the Reserve Bank used dubious assertions to justify its aggressive rate cut. He says this is a misguided pro-growth experiment, much like the same one a decade ago
Rodney Dickens says the Reserve Bank used dubious assertions to justify its aggressive rate cut. He says this is a misguided pro-growth experiment, much like the same one a decade ago
11th Aug 19, 3:41pm
17th Jul 19, 9:17am
6
Rodney Dickens says understanding how our local long term interest rates are influenced has huge implications for how much they will move in response to RBNZ and Government pro-growth and pro-inflation policies
Rodney Dickens says understanding how our local long term interest rates are influenced has huge implications for how much they will move in response to RBNZ and Government pro-growth and pro-inflation policies
17th Jul 19, 9:17am
10th Jul 19, 2:04pm
12
Rodney Dickens says current official forecasts are tainted by wishful thinking and take no account of policies that will boost wage inflation. OCR cuts and fiscal stimulus will boost growth so that the labour market will be tighter next year than now
Rodney Dickens says current official forecasts are tainted by wishful thinking and take no account of policies that will boost wage inflation. OCR cuts and fiscal stimulus will boost growth so that the labour market will be tighter next year than now
10th Jul 19, 2:04pm
28th Apr 19, 6:31am
21
Rodney Dickens notes it has been many years since the warnings of how jobs are under threat from machines first surfaced. He looks at the evidence of what has happened so far
Rodney Dickens notes it has been many years since the warnings of how jobs are under threat from machines first surfaced. He looks at the evidence of what has happened so far
28th Apr 19, 6:31am
3rd Apr 19, 1:31pm
9
Rodney Dickens argues the ANZ business survey is a political toy for some respondents & ANZ uses misleading charts to try and make the survey look relevant
Rodney Dickens argues the ANZ business survey is a political toy for some respondents & ANZ uses misleading charts to try and make the survey look relevant
3rd Apr 19, 1:31pm
24th Mar 19, 12:20pm
9
Rodney Dickens explores why our productivity growth is falling, with a special look at migration flows and the new bank capital requirements
Rodney Dickens explores why our productivity growth is falling, with a special look at migration flows and the new bank capital requirements
24th Mar 19, 12:20pm
27th Feb 19, 5:00am
34
Rodney Dickens says the stirring of wage inflation worldwide signals official interest rates will need to be higher than many expect, which in turn will cause extreme turmoil in financial markets
Rodney Dickens says the stirring of wage inflation worldwide signals official interest rates will need to be higher than many expect, which in turn will cause extreme turmoil in financial markets
27th Feb 19, 5:00am
16th Feb 19, 10:02am
7
Rodney Dickens says there are still issues with new migration numbers even after some major revisions
Rodney Dickens says there are still issues with new migration numbers even after some major revisions
16th Feb 19, 10:02am
26th Jan 19, 10:46am
15
Rodney Dickens thinks Statistics NZ has botched the new migration numbers. He doubts huge numbers of people gave inaccurate data in the old system, but that is what the new system implies. Prepare for large revisions
Rodney Dickens thinks Statistics NZ has botched the new migration numbers. He doubts huge numbers of people gave inaccurate data in the old system, but that is what the new system implies. Prepare for large revisions
26th Jan 19, 10:46am
15th Dec 18, 10:09am
11
Rodney Dickens thinks he spots a bust about to unfold in the manuka honey market after a strong boom - caused but the usual suspect, fast rising new supply
Rodney Dickens thinks he spots a bust about to unfold in the manuka honey market after a strong boom - caused but the usual suspect, fast rising new supply
15th Dec 18, 10:09am
13th Dec 18, 3:35pm
55
Rodney Dickens challenges Barfoot's optimistic judgment saying the Auckland market is weaker than average, and that the demand-supply balance doesn't justify much if any upside in prices
Rodney Dickens challenges Barfoot's optimistic judgment saying the Auckland market is weaker than average, and that the demand-supply balance doesn't justify much if any upside in prices
13th Dec 18, 3:35pm
2nd Dec 18, 12:42pm
48
Rodney Dickens finds the council-controlled subdivision process, the RMA and increasing infrastructure costs directly contribute to high section prices, and these processes give cover for gouging by developers
Rodney Dickens finds the council-controlled subdivision process, the RMA and increasing infrastructure costs directly contribute to high section prices, and these processes give cover for gouging by developers
2nd Dec 18, 12:42pm
17th Nov 18, 2:43pm
65
Rodney Dickens says the real problem inhibiting affordable housing is the cost of sections, and that is the one key thing the Government can do to solve the affordability problem
Rodney Dickens says the real problem inhibiting affordable housing is the cost of sections, and that is the one key thing the Government can do to solve the affordability problem
17th Nov 18, 2:43pm
17th Oct 18, 10:25am
3
Rodney Dickens says warning bells are starting to ring over the level of new tourism and hotel building. The risk is for a substantial overshoot
Rodney Dickens says warning bells are starting to ring over the level of new tourism and hotel building. The risk is for a substantial overshoot
17th Oct 18, 10:25am
28th Sep 18, 8:25am
15
Rodney Dickens doesn't like the RBNZ policy settings, arguing they will lead to disaster. But he does see an opportunity for borrowers
Rodney Dickens doesn't like the RBNZ policy settings, arguing they will lead to disaster. But he does see an opportunity for borrowers
28th Sep 18, 8:25am
28th Aug 18, 7:16am
19
Rodney Dickens criticises Auckland Council's economists, claiming their desire for higher density housing near rapid transport routes taints their analysis
Rodney Dickens criticises Auckland Council's economists, claiming their desire for higher density housing near rapid transport routes taints their analysis
28th Aug 18, 7:16am
5th Aug 18, 7:33am
16
Rodney Dickens says be wary of MBIE's National Construction Pipeline reports, especially their estimates of future residential construction
Rodney Dickens says be wary of MBIE's National Construction Pipeline reports, especially their estimates of future residential construction
5th Aug 18, 7:33am
5th Jul 18, 5:00am
9
Rodney Dickens checks how reliable economic forecasters' employment growth predictions are and how useful the leading indicators of employment are
Rodney Dickens checks how reliable economic forecasters' employment growth predictions are and how useful the leading indicators of employment are
5th Jul 18, 5:00am
3rd Jun 18, 9:40am
41
Rodney Dickens says higher construction demand will soon attract building capacity, so KiwiBuild's demands will be responded to by industry without starving other sectors for long
Rodney Dickens says higher construction demand will soon attract building capacity, so KiwiBuild's demands will be responded to by industry without starving other sectors for long
3rd Jun 18, 9:40am
4th May 18, 12:25pm
42
Rodney Dickens doubts landlords' costs drive rents, suggesting it's more likely income growth does. But he finds there is confusion in the data with the biggest threat from inflation
Rodney Dickens doubts landlords' costs drive rents, suggesting it's more likely income growth does. But he finds there is confusion in the data with the biggest threat from inflation
4th May 18, 12:25pm
11th Mar 18, 5:02am
152
Rodney Dickens says section prices are the key to solving the housing affordability problem, not higher density around transport hubs. He warns against force-feeding in areas that won't deliver the intended outcome
Rodney Dickens says section prices are the key to solving the housing affordability problem, not higher density around transport hubs. He warns against force-feeding in areas that won't deliver the intended outcome
11th Mar 18, 5:02am
17th Jan 18, 2:49pm
33
Rodney Dickens says the business confidence surveys have major political bias, and he checks how accurately these surveys signal growth trends
Rodney Dickens says the business confidence surveys have major political bias, and he checks how accurately these surveys signal growth trends
17th Jan 18, 2:49pm
31st Oct 17, 5:02am
27
Rodney Dickens sees a risk that a cut to permanent migration will weigh on the tourism sector as visitors shy away from New Zealand - for reasons that are by no means clear
Rodney Dickens sees a risk that a cut to permanent migration will weigh on the tourism sector as visitors shy away from New Zealand - for reasons that are by no means clear
31st Oct 17, 5:02am
3rd Oct 17, 10:50am
20
Rodney Dickens looks at what drives global inflation, what drives New Zealand inflation, and is sceptical about how these forces will in turn influence our OCR
Rodney Dickens looks at what drives global inflation, what drives New Zealand inflation, and is sceptical about how these forces will in turn influence our OCR
3rd Oct 17, 10:50am
31st Aug 17, 10:40am
42
Rodney Dickens says there won't be a major catch-up phase for residential building unless something significant is done to improve new housing affordability
Rodney Dickens says there won't be a major catch-up phase for residential building unless something significant is done to improve new housing affordability
31st Aug 17, 10:40am
3rd Aug 17, 2:01pm
32
Rodney Dickens says the effective OCR is well over double the 1.75% actual rate, and SMEs are paying that price for their working capital financing
Rodney Dickens says the effective OCR is well over double the 1.75% actual rate, and SMEs are paying that price for their working capital financing
3rd Aug 17, 2:01pm
12th Jul 17, 11:44am
12
Rodney Dickens questions the threat technology poses to employment, noting that the new jobs that inevitably come are harder to see now than the ones that will be lost
Rodney Dickens questions the threat technology poses to employment, noting that the new jobs that inevitably come are harder to see now than the ones that will be lost
12th Jul 17, 11:44am
Days to the General Election: 24
See Party Policies here. Party Lists here.