Mary Jo Vergara
There weren't too many surprises in the new inflation figures out of Statistics NZ, but there’s enough in the data to keep the RBNZ nervous
17th Apr 24, 4:01pm
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There weren't too many surprises in the new inflation figures out of Statistics NZ, but there’s enough in the data to keep the RBNZ nervous
Ahead of April 17’s much anticipated release of the March quarter CPI, Westpac, ANZ and Kiwibank cast their predictions with all three banks expecting annual inflation to be higher than the RBNZ has forecast
14th Apr 24, 8:07am
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Ahead of April 17’s much anticipated release of the March quarter CPI, Westpac, ANZ and Kiwibank cast their predictions with all three banks expecting annual inflation to be higher than the RBNZ has forecast
Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
4th Mar 24, 11:41am
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Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
[updated]
There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
12th Feb 24, 12:22pm
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There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
With new figures this week likely to show our inflation rate falling meaningfully, economists are nevertheless concerned about the potential for for further inflationary disruptions
22nd Jan 24, 3:05pm
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With new figures this week likely to show our inflation rate falling meaningfully, economists are nevertheless concerned about the potential for for further inflationary disruptions
Westpac economists say we should expect the Reserve Bank to be unforgiving of any shocks that boost the growth and inflation outlook over the next year. Also, the RBNZ will likely be less willing to pre-emptively ease, as markets seem to currently expect
4th Dec 23, 12:15pm
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Westpac economists say we should expect the Reserve Bank to be unforgiving of any shocks that boost the growth and inflation outlook over the next year. Also, the RBNZ will likely be less willing to pre-emptively ease, as markets seem to currently expect
New Kiwibank spending data shows the volume of card spend declined 0.7% over the September quarter, while compared with a year earlier, the number of transactions grew by just 0.5%
10th Oct 23, 10:33am
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New Kiwibank spending data shows the volume of card spend declined 0.7% over the September quarter, while compared with a year earlier, the number of transactions grew by just 0.5%
Economists are cheered by signs the Reserve Bank's monetary tightening is getting traction but caution that inflationary pressures are still strong
3rd Oct 23, 2:01pm
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Economists are cheered by signs the Reserve Bank's monetary tightening is getting traction but caution that inflationary pressures are still strong
'We see quarterly economic activity flitting between small positives and negatives over the remainder of 2023. In per capita terms the economic downturn will be much more pronounced' - ASB economists
29th Aug 23, 11:37am
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'We see quarterly economic activity flitting between small positives and negatives over the remainder of 2023. In per capita terms the economic downturn will be much more pronounced' - ASB economists
If the economy develops as expected, with very weak economic activity and falling inflation, then 'we should start talking more about rate cuts as we head into next year', Kiwibank economists say
22nd Aug 23, 11:34am
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If the economy develops as expected, with very weak economic activity and falling inflation, then 'we should start talking more about rate cuts as we head into next year', Kiwibank economists say
Core inflation has barely budged in the past nine months and may stick around until unemployment begins to rise, economists suggest
19th Jul 23, 4:48pm
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Core inflation has barely budged in the past nine months and may stick around until unemployment begins to rise, economists suggest
New Kiwibank spending data shows that despite the cost of living squeeze we are still spending as we need to - but discretion is being applied
11th Jul 23, 11:22am
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New Kiwibank spending data shows that despite the cost of living squeeze we are still spending as we need to - but discretion is being applied
Kiwibank economists think there should be a fall in New Zealand's wholesale interest rates after this week's Official Cash Rate announcement
10th Jul 23, 3:51pm
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Kiwibank economists think there should be a fall in New Zealand's wholesale interest rates after this week's Official Cash Rate announcement
Kiwibank economists say all three key drivers of the housing market point to a stronger market and house price gains; Westpac economists say housing market one of the key things they will be watching
19th Jun 23, 1:53pm
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Kiwibank economists say all three key drivers of the housing market point to a stronger market and house price gains; Westpac economists say housing market one of the key things they will be watching
Economists at the country's biggest banks are neatly divided as to whether the economy has or has not gone into recession, but there's great consensus that things are slowing and that our current account deficit's very big
12th Jun 23, 3:22pm
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Economists at the country's biggest banks are neatly divided as to whether the economy has or has not gone into recession, but there's great consensus that things are slowing and that our current account deficit's very big
ASB economists rue the whiplash derived from last week's big 'dovish' shift by the Reserve Bank, while Westpac economists still see a further Official Cash Rate hike in August and ANZ economists expect one in November
29th May 23, 1:55pm
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ASB economists rue the whiplash derived from last week's big 'dovish' shift by the Reserve Bank, while Westpac economists still see a further Official Cash Rate hike in August and ANZ economists expect one in November
The Reserve Bank is almost being 'out-hawked' by economists as they bid up the odds of higher interest rates ahead of this week's latest Official Cash Rate decision
22nd May 23, 2:23pm
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The Reserve Bank is almost being 'out-hawked' by economists as they bid up the odds of higher interest rates ahead of this week's latest Official Cash Rate decision
Economists disagree on whether the latest Consumers Price Index data is good news or not
21st Apr 23, 7:27am
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Economists disagree on whether the latest Consumers Price Index data is good news or not
Kiwibank economists are hoping the Reserve Bank can be deterred from its signalled 75 basis point Official Cash Rate hike and 'meet in the middle' with a 50 point rise
23rd Jan 23, 11:00am
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Kiwibank economists are hoping the Reserve Bank can be deterred from its signalled 75 basis point Official Cash Rate hike and 'meet in the middle' with a 50 point rise
[updated]
REINZ says December's sales plummeted nationally to the lowest in years at 4,336; national median price slipped over 12% for the year. In Auckland the fall was 18%. In Wellington 20%. House prices now down around 15% from November 2021 peak
18th Jan 23, 9:00am
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REINZ says December's sales plummeted nationally to the lowest in years at 4,336; national median price slipped over 12% for the year. In Auckland the fall was 18%. In Wellington 20%. House prices now down around 15% from November 2021 peak
[updated]
National's finance spokesperson scalds Government after long-running NZIER business survey records the weakest result in its history; ASB economists say economy has 'run into a brick wall'; BNZ economists see 'stagflation on steroids'
17th Jan 23, 10:23am
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National's finance spokesperson scalds Government after long-running NZIER business survey records the weakest result in its history; ASB economists say economy has 'run into a brick wall'; BNZ economists see 'stagflation on steroids'
Kiwibank economists say the RBNZ is 'doggedly determined to deliver' OCR hikes and it is 'likely to be too much'; see bigger house price falls now, of 21%, taking prices back to 2020 levels
7th Dec 22, 8:08am
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Kiwibank economists say the RBNZ is 'doggedly determined to deliver' OCR hikes and it is 'likely to be too much'; see bigger house price falls now, of 21%, taking prices back to 2020 levels
Kiwibank economists believe the interest rate hikes that have already been delivered will have a huge impact on households and discretionary income will evaporate for many mortgagees
28th Nov 22, 1:57pm
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Kiwibank economists believe the interest rate hikes that have already been delivered will have a huge impact on households and discretionary income will evaporate for many mortgagees
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the volume of cash withdrawals is 70% higher than a year ago
10th Oct 22, 11:50am
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Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the volume of cash withdrawals is 70% higher than a year ago
BNZ economists say a very wide range of forecasts for the outcome of GDP figures this week likely reflects the 'noise' in the component parts
12th Sep 22, 3:10pm
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BNZ economists say a very wide range of forecasts for the outcome of GDP figures this week likely reflects the 'noise' in the component parts