Currencies
Market focused on implications of renewed geopolitical risk. Muted reaction so far. Fed speakers say they are mindful of the recent tightening in financial conditions
10th Oct 23, 7:40am
Market focused on implications of renewed geopolitical risk. Muted reaction so far. Fed speakers say they are mindful of the recent tightening in financial conditions
Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
9th Oct 23, 8:21am
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Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
US nonfarm payrolls easily beat expectations resulting in significant moves across asset markets. They rose double the consensus estimate, with sizable upward revisions to previous months. US treasuries sold off aggressively following the data
9th Oct 23, 7:35am
US nonfarm payrolls easily beat expectations resulting in significant moves across asset markets. They rose double the consensus estimate, with sizable upward revisions to previous months. US treasuries sold off aggressively following the data
Despite hot nonfarm payrolls, US treasury yields and dollar head south. Softer-than-expected jobless rate & avg. hourly earnings trumps jobs growth. Hamas unleashes devastating attack on Israel, risk-off to start the week
9th Oct 23, 7:29am
Despite hot nonfarm payrolls, US treasury yields and dollar head south. Softer-than-expected jobless rate & avg. hourly earnings trumps jobs growth. Hamas unleashes devastating attack on Israel, risk-off to start the week
Markets stable ahead of US labour data. Oil down -14% from September highs. US initial jobless claims steady. Global bond markets take pause from the aggressive recent sell-off
6th Oct 23, 7:31am
Markets stable ahead of US labour data. Oil down -14% from September highs. US initial jobless claims steady. Global bond markets take pause from the aggressive recent sell-off
Bond market rout paused following soft ADP & in-line ISM Services PMI. RBNZ delivers widely expected on-hold decision, dovish leaning statement
5th Oct 23, 8:02am
Bond market rout paused following soft ADP & in-line ISM Services PMI. RBNZ delivers widely expected on-hold decision, dovish leaning statement
Global bond yields pulled back from multi-year highs. The ADP estimate of US private non-farm payrolls lower than consensus estimates. Oil prices fell to the lowest level since early September
5th Oct 23, 7:50am
Global bond yields pulled back from multi-year highs. The ADP estimate of US private non-farm payrolls lower than consensus estimates. Oil prices fell to the lowest level since early September
Stronger than expected US JOLTS report sends US 10-year rate up to fresh highs and pushes USD DXY index up to fresh YTD high; yen jittery
4th Oct 23, 7:54am
Stronger than expected US JOLTS report sends US 10-year rate up to fresh highs and pushes USD DXY index up to fresh YTD high; yen jittery
Surprise weekend resolution to avoid US government shutdown and stronger than expected US ISM manufacturing survey add to upside pressure on rates. Fresh highs in yields and steeper curves; US 10-year rate cracks 4.7% before market finds support
3rd Oct 23, 7:48am
Surprise weekend resolution to avoid US government shutdown and stronger than expected US ISM manufacturing survey add to upside pressure on rates. Fresh highs in yields and steeper curves; US 10-year rate cracks 4.7% before market finds support
Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
2nd Oct 23, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
Global markets were generally subdued into month-end after large losses for bonds and equities during September. Further signs of easing price pressures in the US and Eurozone
2nd Oct 23, 7:43am
Global markets were generally subdued into month-end after large losses for bonds and equities during September. Further signs of easing price pressures in the US and Eurozone
US bond yields lag UK and EU yields, rampant USD rally halted ... for now. US equity market selling paused amid month & quarter end rebalancing
29th Sep 23, 8:36am
US bond yields lag UK and EU yields, rampant USD rally halted ... for now. US equity market selling paused amid month & quarter end rebalancing
UK gilts sell-off leads another bout of higher rates around the world and fresh cycle highs; US 10-year rate up to 4.69% before reversing course. Progress in UAW and carmaker wage negotiations, and improving US/China talks support risk appetite
29th Sep 23, 7:53am
UK gilts sell-off leads another bout of higher rates around the world and fresh cycle highs; US 10-year rate up to 4.69% before reversing course. Progress in UAW and carmaker wage negotiations, and improving US/China talks support risk appetite
Global long-term rates up to fresh cycle highs; US 10-year reaches 4.63%, curve steepens further; US equities continue to fall. Oil prices up 3% to fresh highs for the year as US crude inventories running low
28th Sep 23, 8:00am
Global long-term rates up to fresh cycle highs; US 10-year reaches 4.63%, curve steepens further; US equities continue to fall. Oil prices up 3% to fresh highs for the year as US crude inventories running low
After selling close to $4 billion of NZ dollars in July, last month the RBNZ had its largest net gain of Kiwi dollars since 2015
27th Sep 23, 3:42pm
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After selling close to $4 billion of NZ dollars in July, last month the RBNZ had its largest net gain of Kiwi dollars since 2015
US Treasury yields trade near cycle highs with little net movement overnight; Global forces send NZ rates up to fresh highs yesterday. USD broadly stronger, but only small moves overall
27th Sep 23, 7:53am
US Treasury yields trade near cycle highs with little net movement overnight; Global forces send NZ rates up to fresh highs yesterday. USD broadly stronger, but only small moves overall
US 10-yr yield higher in five of past six days, climbs through 4.56%. Higher bond yields and higher crude oil: soft landing doubts creep in
27th Sep 23, 7:48am
US 10-yr yield higher in five of past six days, climbs through 4.56%. Higher bond yields and higher crude oil: soft landing doubts creep in
Global bond market sell-off returns - US and German 10-year rates up to fresh highs; steeper curves evident, with US2s10s at four-month high. China's Evergrande woes return. China property stocks lower, yuan softer; global metal prices weaker
26th Sep 23, 7:45am
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Global bond market sell-off returns - US and German 10-year rates up to fresh highs; steeper curves evident, with US2s10s at four-month high. China's Evergrande woes return. China property stocks lower, yuan softer; global metal prices weaker
Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
25th Sep 23, 9:05am
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Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
US equities fall for four consecutive days, third consecutive week. UST yields reverse course. BoJ maintains ultra-easy policy with Governor Ueda dovish; yen weakens back to near 10-month low
25th Sep 23, 8:34am
US equities fall for four consecutive days, third consecutive week. UST yields reverse course. BoJ maintains ultra-easy policy with Governor Ueda dovish; yen weakens back to near 10-month low
US equities continue to struggle, worst week for S&P500 since March. UK & eurozone PMIs again report economic contraction, EUR & GBP lag. Fed's Bowman comments: additional rate increases required (note plural)
25th Sep 23, 8:28am
US equities continue to struggle, worst week for S&P500 since March. UK & eurozone PMIs again report economic contraction, EUR & GBP lag. Fed's Bowman comments: additional rate increases required (note plural)
Market plays catch-up to a hawkish Fed, acknowledges higher for longer. US equities forcefully sold for a second day, US 10-yr yield near 4.50%. Domestic economy rebounds: 2Q GDP at 0.9% QoQ, beats consensus
22nd Sep 23, 8:57am
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Market plays catch-up to a hawkish Fed, acknowledges higher for longer. US equities forcefully sold for a second day, US 10-yr yield near 4.50%. Domestic economy rebounds: 2Q GDP at 0.9% QoQ, beats consensus
Global curves steeper in the wake of the Fed's hawkish-hold; BoE and Swiss National Bank opt to keep rates on hold. Fresh highs for 10-year rates across the US, Germany, Japan NZ and others. US 10-year rate just shy of 4.5%
22nd Sep 23, 7:49am
Global curves steeper in the wake of the Fed's hawkish-hold; BoE and Swiss National Bank opt to keep rates on hold. Fresh highs for 10-year rates across the US, Germany, Japan NZ and others. US 10-year rate just shy of 4.5%
The US Federal Reserve upwardly revised growth forecasts, the updated quarterly projections signalled one further 25bp hike this year and notably reduced the amount of easing for 2024
21st Sep 23, 7:54am
The US Federal Reserve upwardly revised growth forecasts, the updated quarterly projections signalled one further 25bp hike this year and notably reduced the amount of easing for 2024
Markets trade cautiously ahead of a bonanza of central bank decisions. RBA minutes suggest bar is now set higher for additional tightening. Equities down, yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar mixed
20th Sep 23, 7:56am
Markets trade cautiously ahead of a bonanza of central bank decisions. RBA minutes suggest bar is now set higher for additional tightening. Equities down, yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar mixed
