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In its latest Monetary Policy Statement the Reserve Bank is forecasting a house price inflation peak of 22.4% in June this year before falling to 10.2% by the end of the year

In its latest Monetary Policy Statement the Reserve Bank is forecasting a house price inflation peak of 22.4% in June this year before falling to 10.2% by the end of the year

The Reserve Bank is forecasting that house price inflation will rise above 22% by the middle of this year before easing.

The forecast is contained in the release of supporting material for the RBNZ's latest Monetary Policy Statement.

The forecasts, prepared by RBNZ and CoreLogic have changed markedly in the latest MPS compared with the last one in November, reflecting how fast actual prices have risen (between January last year and January this year they rose just over 19%, according to the Real Estate Institute).

In the November forecasts the RBNZ/CoreLogic were forecasting house price inflation of just 7.9% for the year to June. Now the forecast is 22.4%.

However, prices are forecast to fall from that level later in the year. 

House price inflation is forecast to fall to 18.4% by September and then 10.2% by the end of this year. And then by March 2022 the RBNZ reckons annual house price inflation will be running at just 3.9%.

House price gains of between 2.6% and 5.6% are then forecast for the remainder of the projection period up to March 2024.

In the MPS document, the RBNZ says a more resilient labour market and the arrival of more permanent migrants prior to the border closure "have contributed to house price inflation being higher than assumed".

"High house price growth can also be attributed to constrained housing supply, declines in interest rates, rebalancing of investment portfolios, and the temporary removal of restrictions on high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending in April 2020," the RBNZ said.

"High house price growth has encouraged increased activity in the construction sector – a sector that has tended to perform poorly during economic downturns."

The RBNZ says that some of the factors contributing to high house price inflation in 2020 "are assumed to wane during 2021".

"Strong construction activity is assumed to alleviate some supply pressure.

"The effect of high migration prior to the border closure is expected to decline as migration has been low since March 2020.

"The reintroduction of restrictions on high-LVR lending for owner-occupiers and investors (and tightening for the latter) is also assumed to dampen further house price increases from the June 2021 quarter."

The RBNZ says although the economy has rebounded strongly, this has not been the case for all sectors.

"Much of the recent strength in activity has been seen in the construction and retail sectors.

"Robust housing market activity has encouraged an increase in building consent issuance and residential investment, and bolstered household wealth. Retail spending growth has been strong, reflecting the factors already discussed: a resilient labour market; robust household balance sheets; higher asset prices; and the redirection of spending from international travel to domestic goods and services."

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122 Comments

31
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Insane.

I also watched the press conference, Would be interesting tod know the opinions of body language experts on how RBNZ representatives were reporting . It was very “interesting“ to listen how mr Orr was talking about risks with property investment in nz :)

I love how on the ball they are. They predict 22.4%...not 22%. Well done!

"However, prices are forecast to fall from that level later in the year."

Another useless prediction from the rbnz... they must be basing this on 40 percent investor deposits. Around one fifth of investors are cashed up and do not require a mortgage. Plenty more investors only need a small one

"The Reserve Bank is forecasting that house price inflation will rise above 22%... bolstered household wealth"
Ah, well there's your first mistake.
House Price rises aren't Inflation. They are New Wealth; the magic ingredient that we need to add stability to the New Zealand Financial System.

I wonder if Adrian's annual remuneration review is indexed to the CPI or the House Price Index? Because if it's the former, he'll understand what a load of rubbish he's been putting out the next time he wants to move residence. Of course. We all know the real answer is, and his package will be 'inflated' by 22% somewhere along the line.

trollolol

In absence of meaningful control measure from the govt, then Mr.Orr & team doing precisely right, sadly he can be pressured by OZ banks. So not quite steady ahead, he already conceded so far in two fronts: LVR & that negative OCR preparation, now he knew he blew it by magnitude of around 108billion excessive QE/LSAP+FLP - The RBNZ is nowhere near as sharp compare to OZ calc.

It's not even new wealth though is it. It's just increased debt at the entry point, increased debt load on the new entrants into the ponzi.

How many investment properties does he own? That's a significant increase in wealth he'd stand to gain from the 22% increase in wealth transfers.

" Watch this space"

10
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RBNZ was talking about house price down by 7%.

they really can foresee nothing.

15
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Just as well house price inflation cannot be attributed to their actions over their higher mission of employment and price stability. Of course, this is a complete con, but it is the accepted dogma that cannot be questioned.

Up 50% down 20% up 30% down 10% up and down and up ...
The way it is, nothing will change.

11
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I'm still waiting for the punchline............. they are joking, right?

19
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The punchline is Grant Robertson is still waiting to see if in fact reducing the OCR increases house prices, and widens inequality.

drumroll....... It was National!

16
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In two years time they'll still be talking about the 'nine long years'. A government bereft of any idea except to blame the previous government.

Natbour.

Ha ha. It's become golden farce. Python-esque in it's lunacy.

13
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Mr Orr, I have slightly altered your statement to more accurately reflect reality:

"High house price growth can also be attributed to constrained housing supply and rebalancing of investment portfolios but MAINLY due to the declines in interest rates and the temporary removal of restrictions on high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending in April 2020,"

21
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Got no idea what these guys (RBNZ & Govt) are trying to do to NZ. The lack of action to prevent the rapid rise in house prices is bewildering. No doubt we'll get a pitiful follow up conference from Robertson in March.

No Government in NZ has any genuine intention of controlling house prices.
They are all controlled by wealthy investors with vested interests.
Stopping tax deductions on interest for residential properties will stop house price rises, but they will never do anything like that!

13
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I think Labour and Orr may be deliberately trying to cause a collapse here so that we can usher in a 'great reset' in NZ where you'll 'own nothing and be happy'. The amount of increases in benefits, supplements, and subsidies in the May Budget will make a taxpayers eyes water. The taxpayer is underwriting the housing ponzi + is on the hook for the costs involved in trying to bridge the inequality chasm.

But what's in it for Beetroot and Badjelly? They must have been promised an exulted place in heaven?

That's a hard question to answer, and should be constantly asked.

One might suggest that `selling the ground from unborn feet, forever` might have consequences. Possibly promised a mansion or two in the Davos heaven?

I've been running the `never attribute malice to what might be explained by ignorance` - starting to struggle. Even the naïve wrong of keynesian economics can't factor into this, surely, it has gone too far.

Good thing the RBNZ is looking at expanding its workforce by 30%, according to their 11/2/21 FEC must watch video (fecless in the most part), that will fix thing. Lest we replace the whole thing with one Economist from the Austrian School and get workable outcomes.

Cheers I will look at video. Certainly it all fits into reset that Grants never heard of

aint_nobody,

So the Keynesian approach is 'naive' and we should go back to the hard-nosed, free market solves everything approach of the Austrian School. You want Friedman and Hayek back? You have clearly learned nothing from history.

Fully agreed. The binge will no longer can be controlled, the best way is to let it go, pumped more - after all, we can only learn to bike after fall off experience right?

Likewise we're bewildered here and I'm considering every possible reason behind Labour and RBNZs machinations. Body snatched, blackmailed, bribed? I can't reasonably contemplate that they're all just too thick or ineffecutal or 'deer in headlights'. The bottom line is they're in power and they just don't give a toss about kiwis and that's a fact

Labour understand the fragility of our "economic growth" and that its built on a debt fueled growth in asset prices - they are so worried of the economic carnage that falling house prices would cause, they will happily prop it up, hoping to get through to the next election unscathed by a recession.

They don't seem to care that they are ensuring the inevitable reckoning will be far worse by pumping the bubble up further. They are gutless, dishonest and incredibly dangerous.

True, likely the story of National and Labour... "hot potato, hot potato".

Or more of musical chairs, each happy to keep the music going and hope that it stops on the other's watch. (Or that they can cash in before it does stop.)

Incredibly dangerous

Can someone explain this to me? Do they mean house prices will go up 22% and then drop by 10%? Or do they mean house prices will go up 22%, and then go up another 10%?
Thanks.

11
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The latter, I believe. Up 22% and then up 10% the next year. What a world, were a 10% increase is seen as an improvement.

I can't believe this

17
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They are saying if you are saving for a deposit on a house, you'll need to save $45,000 over the year to be just as far away from buying one as you are now.

Actually they are saying you need more than that. Rates will increase and affordability tests will be updated accordingly.

11
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I think it is a bit more complicated than that.

June 2020 to June 2021 up by 22.4%
September 2020 to September 2021 up by 18.4%
January 2021 to January 2022 up by 10.2%
March 2021 to March 2022 up by 3.9%

This looks like a fairly rapid fall in price increases. Could be wrong. Why they feel confident enough to predict to a decimal place is intriguing.

So if you buy at the right price now you should see a 3.9% gain in one year's time. So the bulk of the increases has already passed. Expect only a 2% increase if you buy now and sell in June. They probably should have just said that in order to not panic people. If I am correct in my interpretation that is.

Thanks, I think you're right? But it's a little hard to understand in the format it's been stated.
RBNZ feeding the mania yet again.

11
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Yep, I read it like that as well. Either an attempt to smooth feathers or pull the wool over our eyes. Either way, they don't have a clue really.

Orr "More FOMO, now!"

Also quite likely to be an annualised rate, so cut all of those in 4 for actual gross inflation..
5.6%, 4.6%, 2.55%, 0.95% = 15%ish once compounded. Either way, unless we get some serious wage inflation to go with it is going to kill the FHBs.

RBNZ MPS have two separate forecasts, one using Corelogic data, which this article refers to, the other REINZ data. Although they use the data in different ways, percentage increases appear fairly similar. The important thing to note is that Corelogic data is delayed, both for the purposes of the M10 data provided to the RBNZ on a quarterly basis and that corelogic data ( hat tip Printer8) refers to only completed sales which may lag considerably, whereas REINZ data is more timely. Like Zachary says , much of the forecast (sales )data is already in . If 22 percent is the peak for the forecasts as of the June quarter ,RBNZ forecast a 2.6 percent rise for the following year, June to June , which all needs to be backdated to about now. Having said that a 2.6 percent annual rise in your home is about ten times the return on a term deposit.

"not to panic people" - boy they sure know how to pander to speculators because no owner occupier is going to panic and sell up. "Are you being served?" they remind me of Basil Fawlty. Next Grant Robertson and Orr personally send thank you notes and wine to the most prolific investors to let them know they're appreciated

They are saying up 22% over one year to June/July 2021 (so maybe 5% above current levels), then effectively static for the remainder of the year so that the December-December gain is 10%.

Might have to upgrade the boat.

one with a motor perhaps ?

14
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RBNZ following global best practice....inflate peoples debt away.
In their view. If you have no assets or debt, you don't count, go find another planet...maybe Mars?

12
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I heard it's nice but lacks atmosphere

In fact it's cold as hell.

They say they want inflation but reduce the cost of money, nuts. They fail to realise the CPI is a price index Not a volume index. Cheaper money will only inflate prices of scarce assets eg property etc but has no impact on items that are readily available In a global market. They know this and are abusing us, as they have created a housing problem which could threaten bank stability should there be a market correction.

Yes that makes sense otherwise we'd be seeing this 'inflating away' in things other than shares and property

It's New Zealand's biggest welfare scheme, property. And it's for the already wealthy, funded by intergenerational wealth theft. It is first and foremost a problem of morals.

Bugger - that generalisation being made public, to instigate the feel 'ouh that's normal'. The devil is in details - Check those global OECD countries 'best practice' of .. stimulus amount vs country size of every parameters - you'll be shock to find where NZ is compare to the rest. Clue, apex of rocket.. and now still going attempt to surpass the earth gravity.

Need wage inflation to inflate the debt away surely? Good news everyone! ...

Stagnation more likely

It's always a good decision to tell every one to calm the farm down.

So even once things are normalised, they are still expecting house prices to rise in real terms.

15
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JA: because that's what Kiwis expect

11
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Aroha.

'KiwiPonzi', brought to you by the Labour Party.

Brought to you by Natbour.

Ardern has become Key; Labour have become National. Young Kiwis have neither as a viable option for the future. Probably only the likes of TOP or Greens to choose from.

Madness. And they do nought.
Should be ashamed to pick up their salaries.

"However, prices are forecast to fall from that level later in the year." He means house price inflation, right?

What they're saying is sell before June 2021 - buy a caravan and tour NZ without all the int'l tourists for a year - and buy back better in June 2022.

Short the housing market.

'The Big Short' redux.

If you believe what you're saying put your money where your mouth is.

I know of several people who tried this strategy only to now find themselves old and renting as the market and credit policy turned on them quicker than they could ever buy back in.

Sell House -> Housing Market Crashes -> Banks struggle -> OBR event initiated -> ???

Yeah, only likely to work if you don't need credit as it is that 'turn' that will cause the cooling.

Given its very poor track record I don't believe RBNZ should be relying on its forecasts.

Given Zachary Smith's explanation, which looks right, it's about a 10% increase for this calendar year, which is entirely plausible.
Of course as others have said, they have been wrong, sometimes very wrong many times before....

Friggin mental. And tragic.

The Reserve Bank are probably quite pleased with these figures. Interest.co have been a bit naughty highlighting the 22% increase to June 2021 whereas 20% of that increase is already a fait accompli as of writing.

They have managed to bring house inflation under control without crashing the market while maintaining a strong economy and full employment. The small price to pay was 20% house price inflation but that is all in the past now. Time to move on...

Time to move on, say that to the many who can no longer afford to purchase a house to live in...

Collateral damage, casualties of the war against COVID, I guess.

Only a ‘have’ would say something as entitled as that.

Certainly makes it a little harder to feel moral outrage at people who steal because they don't have enough. Given the intergenerational wealth theft that is being perpetuated in favour of those who have more than enough. Just one wealth transfer vs. another.

Certainly aligns with first hand accounts of the effects of inflation on morals in Europe a century ago.

You can see the future aye Nostrodamus?

Well the Reserve Bank seem to think they can. I was just trying to see things from their PoV. Like a commander reviewing the outcome of a battle.

What would you know about being a commander or the service that entails?

It's not under control not by a long shot until LVR headwind slows speculators down and that's anyones guess. Then repressed FHB. That's assuming there is no more "because covid" mega-stimulous between now and then

Note the comments on immigration. Just like Karl, I and others said there was a surge before March 2020, and that contributed to the house price increases last year.
As they say, that has slowed a lot since March and we will see the lag effect of slower house price increases.

In our main business we see large numbers of new build contracts. We are intrigued to note the strongly increasing dominance of non caucasian ethnicities in the lower/middle cost build segment. We estimate in one area that around 70% of new contracts are thus weighted.

Middleman I assume you are talking about the owner occupiers of the homes, or are you talking about the builders/developers?
In the development we live in, I have met a couple of Indian (have immigrated to NZ in the last 5-7 years) owners. Both of them live in 3 bedroom townhouses, and both of them have 3-4 flatmates.
I don't know of many caucasian kiwis that do this, perhaps it's a cultural thing (more used to living in tighter quarters and with extended family).
This is anecdotal but it *might* be quite significant. It would obviously make mortgage repayments a lot smaller for the owners.

Young white kiwis might not do that here, but they *do* squash into flats when overseas in places like London.

We can't tell what the end use of these new group build subdivision properties will be but it would be a reasonable assumption that the extreme weighting towards this population segment indicates many will not be owner occupied. White boomers are fingered by the identity politics crowd as driving the property speculation frenzy afflicting NZ but the picture is far more nuanced than that. A friend is a senior mortgage application vettor for a bank and says properties with the multi occupancy potential you describe and also sufficient land on which to plonk 'outbuildings' are very popular with newer NZ citizens who use the multi room rental potential to support their high leverage mortgage applications.

Where's Andreas? He was bleating about how Karl and I were wrong, there was no immigration last year.
The RBNZ have reaffirmed that there was quite a lot of immigration in the first 3 months of 2020 and that stimulated demand throughout the year.
Andrea's had a go at us, saying we were talking nonsense and asking 'where was the evidence?'
Well the RBNZ has just stated it.
Don't agree with anywhere near everything of what they say, but they are right on this.
Where are ya Andreas?

Not sure why you were so enthusiastically looking for me but this “ The effect of high migration prior to the border closure is expected to decline as migration has been low since March 2020.” suggests exactly what I was saying in the other thread -immigration was low since Covid happened. The only thing I would add to that statement is “... however at the same period, since March 2020 , we’ve added bunch of zillion dollars into the system so we are now happy with 22% house prices growth” , so I made the conclusion that the monetary policy and not immigration is the actual driver of this mess.

No, again! Stop making things up.

You said house price increases were high last year even though immigration was very low. Therefore immigration has zero or very little effect on house prices.

The reserve Bank is saying part of the reason for high house prices last year was the surge in immigrants before March. I have already told you that the net gain in migrants was 79k for the year to June 2020.

Last time you were whingeing that neither Karl or I provided evidence. I have provided the evidence, including the statement from the reserve bank. Or does that not count as expert or objective evidence?

Anyway, I have no further interest in debating this issue, the correct answer is clear. Good night!

Think about it. Lots of immigrants coming in to NZ is late 2

Mate , I am referring to last 12 months to clarify March 20 - March 21 , and yes almost no immigration, massive QE and flying house prices. It is interesting that prior to March 2020 the prices were stagnant for a good couple of years whereas immigration was steady high .Which proves my point that immigration is not primary reason for price rise, unless you want to argue all those who came prior suddenly bought the house this year , what a coincidence with massive QE

Again, I NEVER said immigration is the primary reason.
I said it is one of a handful of key reasons.

I don't know how anyone could with integrity argue that immigration is not a factor in price rises.

How do you add another 500,000 population and expect no impact on house prices when supply is constrained?

Immigrants are a protected group. It would be wrong to single them out.

“ The reserve Bank is saying part of the reason for high house prices last year was the surge in immigrants before March.” you know, may be part of the reason was the fact I am late to work sometimes, but let’s avoid saying how big and significant that part is

Put another way the NZ dollar will be 22% more worthless by any measure except the CPI.

20% in 2020 and 23% in 2021.....Jacinda Arden has lost........But now has power so can do what she wants atleast till next election before she comes back with crocodile tears for FHB....

10
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Never forget to be kind and that whatever happens - come hell or high water - "It's all Nationals fault".

Never forget to be kind and that whatever happens - come hell or high water - "It's all Nationals fault".

Our ancestors used to burn witches at the stake.

Perhaps they were smarter than us.

Badjelly deserves to melt

I wouldn't bet against her winning the next election. A lot of 'Middle New Zealand' will be very happy.
If the Nats get a credible leader then she might be gone burger.

Mate, I’m a long time far right leaning voter. You know, white privilege and all that. And even I am disillusioned by the current line up. The only remedy is insulation. Regardless of who is in power, regardless of policy or change in social structure you can weather it out. Things are only going to get worse.....crime....racial friction....taxes increased to pay for social welfare burden. Bring on gated communities, private medical insurance and nominal superannuation.

Mate, I’m a long time far right leaning voter. You know, white privilege and all that. And even I am disillusioned by the current line up. The only remedy is insulation. Regardless of who is in power, regardless of policy or change in social structure you can weather it out. Things are only going to get worse.....crime....racial friction....taxes increased to pay for social welfare burden. Bring on gated communities, private medical insurance and nominal superannuation.

I think you right, there is no "fixing" this with "normal" measures such as economic austerity - we have been told for too long that is is unnecessary and we can just print more money. This is of course fundamentally wrong, but we can just keep trying anyway. The government has some Ideas but none of them any good...Progressive Home Ownership....not so great... but not their worst effort!

....a scheme, available to anyone who moved off a benefit, offering up to $200 a week for accommodation costs and a $1,000 incentive payment for workers, who completed jobs of six weeks or longer....54 unemployed people took it up...

https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/rural-opinion/hound/unemploy...

Muh, I think voters are pretty disillusioned with nation also. I think votes that leave labour will head green party.

I can see many of the centrist people who flocked to Labour flocking back to National if they get a compelling leader before the next election. I think it will also depend on how our economy and house prices perform...
And some drift among left leaning Labour voters to Greens.

Not bad, around 30% for two years. But hey, it's still a forecast right? - hidden message? it will go stratospheric.

That's not what they're saying. Most of the 22% rise has already occurred. The 10% is not cumulative and indicates a slowing, effectively no or minimal rises for the second half of this year.

Of course it’s going to slow you can’t have 22% rises year after year.

If you’re a homeowner it doesn’t matter but if you’re a FHB it’s an atrocious situation to be in.

Labour allowing and promoting the biggest inequality driver in society. What a legacy for the tooth fairy and the fat controller.

And they're worried about untaxed profits.

Price growth due to:

1. Stoking demand by RBNZ by cutting rates and LVR, esp for investors
2. Safe haven demand, in terms of space from CV19 and somewhere to stash cash in an economic crisis.

Funny how the meme of "oh its the immigration" has died a death

. . . . and also likewise blaming foreign buyers.

Surely there cannot be a mix of multiple factors, indeed!

High house price growth can also be attributed to.... declines in interest rates... removal of high LVR lending.
Hmm... and who pushed this for whose benefit? And whose head will roll? Oh, no heads will roll, they'll likely be knighted instead as apparently it's fantastic to have high home price increases.

Robust household balance sheets... ha only if high home prices can continue otherwise right and truly f#*ked.

Such a shame, I'm gutted that my kids will probably never have the opportunity to own a peice of property in the country they were born in without bring a slave to the financial system for most of their lives. Sigh.

So basically get in quick and borrow as much as you can for as long as you can, then borrow some more and buy and investment property using the equity in house one then do it again and again. Keep the new debt flowing as interest rates will NEVER go up ( Just don’t look at the earlier article where US mortgage rates have increased just a little bit and bought the housing market to a sudden stop). Debt debt lots of lovely debt, you know that poorly built house on 300m2 is totally worth it. People say Bitcoin is tulip mania but realestate is the real tulip.

Just went to an Auction today for a 3 bedroom house in Auckland:

One roof low estimate: $1,280,000
One roof estimate: $1,405,000
one roof High Estimate: $1,580,000

Sold for $1,651,000!!

I'm still trying to figure out why anyone would actually want to live in Ayuckland let alone pay those prices. More power to ya.

I'm wondering where they pulled those figures from..