Currencies

Roger J Kerr looks for the drivers of the recent US bond market rout, and notes the US dollar is sliding on their weaker economic data. He also sees our string local bounce-back of business confidence defying global uncertainty

Roger J Kerr looks for the drivers of the recent US bond market rout, and notes the US dollar is sliding on their weaker economic data. He also sees our string local bounce-back of business confidence defying global uncertainty

US equities ended July on a firmer note, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%. The yen gained after rate checks by the NY Fed, & coordination between US and Japanese authorities. US Treasury yields extended their recent rise, led by the long end of the curve

US equities ended July on a firmer note, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%. The yen gained after rate checks by the NY Fed, & coordination between US and Japanese authorities. US Treasury yields extended their recent rise, led by the long end of the curve

Oil prices contained despite Mid-East bombing campaign continuing. US Q2 GDP up "only" +1.5% in Q2. Further curve steepening as fallout from Warsh's press conference continues. Japan intervenes yo support the yen

Oil prices contained despite Mid-East bombing campaign continuing. US Q2 GDP up "only" +1.5% in Q2. Further curve steepening as fallout from Warsh's press conference continues. Japan intervenes yo support the yen

US Federal Reserve leaves rates on hold, although three Committee members dissented in favour of an increase. Oil prices rebounded sharply amid further tensions in the Middle East

US Federal Reserve leaves rates on hold, although three Committee members dissented in favour of an increase. Oil prices rebounded sharply amid further tensions in the Middle East

The next evolution of digital money: stablecoins, tokenised assets, and the future of treasury. A Westpac review

The next evolution of digital money: stablecoins, tokenised assets, and the future of treasury. A Westpac review

Oil prices down significantly for a third consecutive day. Lower oil prices support global bond markets. US treasury yields show further modest fall. Semiconductor stocks continue to weigh on global equities

Oil prices down significantly for a third consecutive day. Lower oil prices support global bond markets. US treasury yields show further modest fall. Semiconductor stocks continue to weigh on global equities

Oil prices fell sharply after the US paused plans to escalate strikes against Iran, supporting a move lower in global bond yields. But an initial rally in US equities faded

Oil prices fell sharply after the US paused plans to escalate strikes against Iran, supporting a move lower in global bond yields. But an initial rally in US equities faded

Roger J Kerr sees weaker US jobs growth undermining the market pricing for an inflation-fighting Fed hike, and the USD will fall too. At the same time he finds strength in recent NZ and Australian economic data

Roger J Kerr sees weaker US jobs growth undermining the market pricing for an inflation-fighting Fed hike, and the USD will fall too. At the same time he finds strength in recent NZ and Australian economic data

Positive weekend developments with US and Iran military action paused. NZD recovers some lost ground and is modestly higher on the key crosses. Higher Australian rates drive up NZ rates, with 2-year swap closing at a fresh cycle high

Positive weekend developments with US and Iran military action paused. NZD recovers some lost ground and is modestly higher on the key crosses. Higher Australian rates drive up NZ rates, with 2-year swap closing at a fresh cycle high

Middle East tension increase. Brent crude steadily rises up through USD101/bbl. This drives up global rates to levels not seen since early 2025. US equities much lower, accentuated by falls in the Mag7 on capex concerns

Middle East tension increase. Brent crude steadily rises up through USD101/bbl. This drives up global rates to levels not seen since early 2025. US equities much lower, accentuated by falls in the Mag7 on capex concerns

Oil prices up again as the US and Iran exchange missiles and threats. Higher oil prices driving US rates up. Currency moves modest; NZD weakens as recent strength fades; JPY still weak despite threat to intervene

Oil prices up again as the US and Iran exchange missiles and threats. Higher oil prices driving US rates up. Currency moves modest; NZD weakens as recent strength fades; JPY still weak despite threat to intervene

Oil prices higher overnight with Brent crude peaking just below USD92 on new Trump threats. Treasury yields push higher, but US equity market unperturbed as investors return. NZD and rates higher after strong NZ CPI report, but the move faded

Oil prices higher overnight with Brent crude peaking just below USD92 on new Trump threats. Treasury yields push higher, but US equity market unperturbed as investors return. NZD and rates higher after strong NZ CPI report, but the move faded

Mixed news on Middle East tensions; ideas from mediators conveyed to Iran; Houthis propose maritime blockade for the Red Sea route used by Saudi Arabia; Brent crude currently just under US$90/bbl. US Treasury yields higher

Mixed news on Middle East tensions; ideas from mediators conveyed to Iran; Houthis propose maritime blockade for the Red Sea route used by Saudi Arabia; Brent crude currently just under US$90/bbl. US Treasury yields higher

Roger J Kerr says NZ, Aussie and US interest rates are set to converge to the same level, while US markets underestimate the disinflationary impulse underway

Roger J Kerr says NZ, Aussie and US interest rates are set to converge to the same level, while US markets underestimate the disinflationary impulse underway

US and Iran tit-for-tat military attacks increased. Crude rises through Friday night session, up 4½%; expect to see another lurch higher on the Asian open today, Rates and currencies well contained despite the lift in oil prices

US and Iran tit-for-tat military attacks increased. Crude rises through Friday night session, up 4½%; expect to see another lurch higher on the Asian open today, Rates and currencies well contained despite the lift in oil prices