sign uplog in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

David Hargreaves settles in for a fascinating few months ahead as we wait to see how the housing market reacts to the bold housing package unveiled by the Government this week

David Hargreaves settles in for a fascinating few months ahead as we wait to see how the housing market reacts to the bold housing package unveiled by the Government this week

David Hargreaves

So, all we can do now is watch and wait. And see what happens.

We wait to see how exactly the housing market reacts to the package the Government thew at it this week.

I'm not going to make any rash predictions. That way lies madness.

The housing market does have fairly recent form in terms of defying predictions.

Notably of course there was the widespread expectation that house prices would fall precipitously in the latter part of last year as a result of the Covid crisis.

I always doubted that one, particularly after the Reserve Bank had opted to remove restrictions on high loan to value ratio (LVR) lending.

For investors who didn't have to worry about job security and who were seeing bank deposit yields disappearing, the idea of a housing market with no LVR limits was always going to be like catnip.

Expect the unexpected

So, I couldn't ever see prices falling far. But, no, I didn't see the massive rises coming.

And likewise, and in the other direction, I have to say I didn't expect it to 'work' when the RBNZ first put stringent (40%) deposit rules on investors in 2016.

At the time it seemed to me the momentum in the market was unstoppable. That didn't prove to be the case.

In that regard it is interesting to note that there were early signs that the rush of investors into the market is abating, based on the latest mortgage figures, for February, out this week.

After the massive buying binge the investors went on in the last few months of 2020 some pausing for breath might be expected.

But still, I suspect that, in an ideal world, it might have been better to wait for a few months to see what impact the reintroduction of LVRs would have, given that they were only formally reintroduced as of the start of this month.

Yes, there have been plenty of people in the marketplace suggesting that the 40% deposit rule for investors would not be effective this time - but I thought that last time and was wrong.

We probably haven't allowed enough time to see how effective or otherwise the LVRs were going to be. Having said that, I do appreciate that nobody wants to be seen as taking a 'wait and see' approach when we have house price inflation galloping along at above 20%.

The game changer

Anyway, regardless of how effective the LVR reintroduction may or may not be, the housing market has now had a whole lot more thrown at it by the government.

Clearly, the removal of the tax deductibility on interest payments for investors was the game changer and (if retained as a policy) it does, I would suggest have the potential to colour how future generations view housing investment in this country.

For Kiwis it has always been the no-brainer that the word 'investment' is linked inextricably with the words 'buy a property'.

We are about to find out how central in that thinking the tax deductibility on interest payments has been.

Of course, the conundrum is, for anybody that might be put off property by the removal of that tax deductibility, what's the alternative? 

And in that regard, if there was a disappointing aspect to this week's policy announcement from the Government it was that there were not some clear incentives offered for alternative investments.

Sure, the planned exemption for new builds on the tax policy is kind of an incentive, but in some ways just looks like a way around a disincentive. 

Certainly the build up to the announcement suggested there might be some incentives offered to invest in alternative assets. And personally I think it would be a great idea to look at something like more favourable tax treatment for retirement savings. Maybe this is something the Government might still be considering. I hope so.

As I've said before, one thing we don't tend to do well, if at all, is use the tax system as a positive incentive. Too often tax is treated as the blunt instrument to crack you over the back of the head with.

Offering tax breaks for investment behaviour that the government of the day regards as virtuous is not something we do nearly enough of.

Keeping watch

What I hope we do see in the aftermath of this announcement from the Government is active scrutiny of just exactly how the market responds.

If there are unintended consequences then we need to know quickly - and react to that. And hey, there's virtually ALWAYS some unintended consequences of policy changes, particularly if (as seems to be the case with these) they were not subjected to the closest of scrutiny ahead of time.

Last year it was obvious as early as August that the housing market was exploding. And yet, any proper reaction to that was a long time - too long - in coming. With the result that the Government's ended up pulling out the blunderbuss. 

If, for example, there was to be a sharp slide in property prices there may need to be some reaction to this. Because of course the most affected people would likely be those who have just recently bought a house (and therefore have low equity). And yes, I'm thinking particularly of first home buyers.

We wouldn't want policies that are designed to help to actually precipitate financial stability issues.

Likewise - if it appears the policies are not having as much impact as the Government might expect, how does it react to that and how quickly?

As I say, now we watch this space.

The next few months should be very interesting.

*This article was first published in our email for paying subscribers. See here for more details and how to subscribe.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

252 Comments

22
up

You’d be brave to buy now.

11
up

Fortune favours the bold.

10
up

For NZ? the bold means just that, those that being protected species by the ruling elite which also got vested interest (RBNZ & any Govt). The label doesn't suit these type of protected species... Really, dare to venture into BTC? - being bold turn all those protected Ponzi, to the real one. See how bold you are.

Like Custer at Little Big Horn and Lord Cardigan at the Battle of Balaclava?
How did it work out for them?

Classic examples of exceptions that prove the rule.

Stalingrad?

'Prove' in that phrase means 'test'. They test it, but don't break it.

Not if you are using the expression in the way that Fowler describes as "jocular nonsense".

Puddings...

Another soft-landing awaits the housing market.

TTP

Be greedy when others are fearful.

Much more greed than fear at the moment

That's why Warren Buffet is flush with cash - he's fearful

Yet Dalio said cash is trash...
https://youtu.be/-wPKUoLjKLo

CWBW..and be fearful when others are greedy

10
up

... why ? .... we still have a massive supply shortage of houses ... a pitiful response from a woefully underbrained government ... tinkering around the edges ... the drivers of this property bubble are very firmly still in place ... as per , lotsa waffle from Ardern & Robbo , sweet bugger all real action ...

17
up

"We must raise interest rates, but we can't raise interest rates, but we must raise interest rates, but we can't raise interest rates, but we must raise interest rates.....etc"

Talk about being on the horns of a dilemma.

Just raise mortgage interest rates on existing rented properties or new property investor loans. Known as buy to let mortgages in the UK. Don't just get rid of interest only loans...hike them up so it hurts. Before people comment that they will just increase their rent.....if a cap is introduced they cant.

Has as been mentioned by many in comments and now me too truly believes that as cannot raise interest rate, can stop interest only loan which is used by most speculator.

Without IO loan many speculators, if not all, will not be able to play in housing casino.

I wonder what their plan is if they end up with a few hundred thousand negatively geared home owners who can't pay their mortgages in a few years?

23
up

They can sell their properties and take any loss on the chin. Buying houses that cost more than they can be rented for is pretty f*cking stupid if you think about it.

I agree, but wondering what the government's big plan is if their hoped price falls occur. Hypothetically, there's going to be plenty of legit first-home buyers who get screwed if there is a fall in values and interest rates go up. Especially if Westpac leaves and our mortgage sector becomes less competitive.

"Ah yes, sir your home is now valued $150,000 less than what you purchased it for and you've only paid $20,000."

17
up

I've been through that twice, ie house values/prices dropping substantially, and I survived. It was tough, but if you don"t sell, you don't take a loss - just had to tighten my belt to pay the mortgage.

Nothing wrong with a dip. If you're a 1st time buyer. Your property will probably live longer than you will.

Nothing wrong with a dip. If you're a 1st time buyer. Your property will probably live longer than you will.

12
up

You wrote negative gearing when you meant negative equity.

Yes, property speculators like to use first home buyers as human shields / hostages. It would be a real shame if prices happened to drop.

But at the end of the day, they paid these insane prices while the rest of us with critical thinking skills didn't. They will still have their house.

12
up

Its rarely the investor that gets caught in these circumstances - its more often the FHB or the owner occupier who paid too much for the property. FHB suddenly gets a job in another city or need to move to be closer to family or heaven forbid gets divorced -negative equity can mean they would owe the bank if they sell and they have to start the home buying process from scratch.

I don't know about that. Investors that have leveraged off unrealised capital gains to buy more and more negative or low yielding properties are very vulnerable with the interest deductibility changes. It would only take a couple of tenants to go feral to bring the whole house of cards down.

That's not investment. That's speculation. Investing is safe and boring.

They may have critically thought “where do i raise my family” or “how do i stop the pain of getting kicked out of IPs every year”

23
up

I'm a potential FHB. I would love prices to drop. But here property investors are trying to convince people that somehow it would be bad for me if I only needed a $500,000 mortgage instead of an $800,000 one. It's embarrassing.

You can try and pick the bottom but all you’ll get is a smelly finger

You could always move towns, it's what I did.

brisket
For a family being kicked out of a rental, (with the cost of moving, the disruption to life and children possibly moving school and establishing new friends) as was posted last week is "bad" for you and the family.
Nobody knows for certain what the market is going to do. Some - including the RBNZ and especially posters on this site - this time last year were calling a decline.
A decline in the short term may or may not happen but owning property is long term and short term fluctuations positive or negative are irrelevant. While houses have increased by 30% in some regions, it really made no difference as it is still the same house and the bank balance is still the same, and although there is no certainty as to what will happen, the certainty is that it will be the same house if prices do fall in short term.
The key thing is confidence in being able to service the mortgage, forget about what the market is doing, and get on with living life in a home in which has social and intrinsic value far greater than renting.

I am already that family being kicked out of a rental. Three houses in five years- despite being a model tenant- but thanks for your concern.

Sorry to hear this. Wishing you and your family all the best. We are also pre approved FHB, it’s a shit show out there, huh. Soul destroying would be fairly apt.

Who knows what the future holds though? No one. Do whatever, whenever and wherever is best for you and your family, that’s all you can do.

brisket
Really sorry to hear.
FHB have unfortunately been a significant casualty of recent Government and RBNZ actions trying to address wider economic issues.
I hope that this week's actions is the start of addressing the issues for FHB, and for you that you get to soon achieve the social and finance security of homeownership for your family.

'Some' were calling a decline? Almost all were.

I’d say people are saying its bad for you because it would be terrible for the economy and therefore maybe your job. It sucks because prices shouldnt have got this way in the first place but now we revolve around it. Would the FHB builder be happy about loosing that big reno job because prices dropped and the customer couldnt get a top up to pay for it anymore?

FHBs hard earned deposit wiped (those who purchased recently) if price drops say 10-20%

Those who’ve purchased recently, yes, whatever % they make of the market. Vs potential buyers looking to get in — who vastly outnumber them. That’s the problem, someone has to lose out, and it’s easier to kick the can than to disappoint someone who thought they were on to a sure winner.

Buying a car with 4 seats could be stupid too, since you'll be buying a car more than you can drive.

Amazing thinking- I like that!

18
up

I'd be very impressed if you could even count to four.

The correct analogy would be like buying a car on finance and renting it out for less than your monthly payments.

The difference is I can hold without rent and still make a pile when I sell.

You will be lucky if Cash for Cars offer you more than $500 for your old banger.

You'll find that your used car will sell for much less. You'll be stuck riding the short bus for the rest of your life.

So what if they did nothing now and let the rampant market continue, then let some other factor cause the market to go down, then you have even more of the above. They are taking action now to prevent more of this. We can't guarantee to every FHB that house prices will always rise, we will never let them go into negative equity. Buying a house carries risk, borrowing 3/4's of a million dollars has risks. That is why my first house was a tiny, cheap little thing with a modest mortgage so I would survive unforeseen changes. The current way the housing market has been going cannot end without some pain of some sort.

Waffle waffle..running around in circles..more waffle

14
up

Houses are being built at a rate I haven't seen since the 70s, I believe we may be at peak production where that goes. It is immigration that is outstripping the ability to provide houses.
I believe, however, that when the coast is clear from covid there will be a mass exodus of many of those who bolted back here, the residencies and citizenships being very convenient for the time being.
I also think once people farming becomes less lucrative we will attract fewer new immigrants, many of whom imho, came here to exploit our ridiculously loose regulations on it. We have been taken for suckers for decades, walking it back overnight is not possible

17
up

This is why making any predictions right now is (in my view) foolish.

Net migration figures (both immigration and emigration) is very much up in the air, depending on covid. We know we are building far more properties than our natural birthrate, so it will be eating into the shortage of supply. How long does it go on for?

It does feel like there is a growing storm of factors that could easily come together, resulting in a sharp correction in the market. We could also find the government/RBNZ get cold feet the second prices start to fall, and throw everything to prop up the housing market.

What a fucking mess

14
up

In many respects this country has been managed appallingly over the past 20 years. Housing, infrastructure, immigration- all total debacles.

.... yes ... and theres nothing to make me think that the next 20 years will be any different ....

Dare we blame MMP ?

Yes, I've thought this for a while, First past the post, got you what was voted in, things happened - good or bad.

MMP, and our naivety with it, is like the worst compromise, no one gets what they want. And for policies like housing it is either right or wrong, there is no middle ground.

He who seeks perfection will always be disappointed.

Bugger
"You’d be brave to buy now".
You just copying and pasting a comment from this time last year? :)

Is this comment part of an investment strategy not looking so good anymore? ;)

11
up

It’s suits him to say it because he can’t buy anyway

I’d rather buy now than be sitting in a rental wondering if it’s going to be sold or when the rent rise is coming

14
up

No you don't need to be brave you just need to get on and do it. There are people on here that have been "Watching this space" for years and now they are stuffed because they didn't buy. You almost know whats going to happen, by the time the changes kick into effect, even if there are any the boarders will reopen and "Covid free heaven" NZ will start accepting immigrants again. The longer you wait just gets you free entry into the waiting for 50% price drops club.

14
up

Daily dose of real estate lobby one-sided-comment. How about those that might leave the country once they have better future outlook overseas? Thanks for sharing.

20
up

Kiwis leaving for Aussie and being replaced by low-skilled migrants. And we wonder why we have infrastructure issues in NZ.

Sam
One of the few things I actually liked about Muldoon was his comment “NZ migrants to Australia raises the IQ of both countries”. :)
Actually you might want to read about NZ immigration policy on entry criteria requirements regarding skilled migrants.

You're right.

If OECD's 2019 report on migration is still valid, Kiwis who choose to leave may indeed improve the IQ of all countries- it's only natural.

https://ibb.co/RT7HjBv

John Newbern's Law: People can be divided into three groups: those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who wonder what happened.

“Wonder is the beginning of wisdom.”
Socrates.

Carlos67...Currently I am in the second group. If investors end up in the third group (which seems more than possible) I will quickly move from the second group to the first. It always pays to be prepared to change as situations change.

10
up

How are the 'low skilled immigrants' going to afford the deposit and income to secure a $1 Million + house?
How will they manage to pay an eye-watering rent bill if they cannot buy?

My suggestion from the other day (which was mostly tongue in cheek): Build a house as a condition of your visa.

Not a stupid idea!!!!

The taxpayer through WINZ/MSD, according to one big brained landlord on Stuff. They'll pump up their rent to cover their new costs, and if tennants can't afford it then the taxpayer till cover the rest. Personally, I'm not sure they've thought this through.

Tom
Another one who has to read NZ immigration entry requirements - from memory business migrants need $3m to invest and I think all immigrants need $100k.

11
up

Wow, nothing but a river of millionaires coming to NZ. Why are these millionaires so intent on being Uber drivers when they get here?

Tom
Forget your prejudices, educate yourself by reading the immigration entry criteria.
Many do work second jobs - heard of that?

I wouldn't come here if I have to invest 3 million. There are better places like US and UK, Australia. No doubt I prefer my retirement here. It is best for retirement after 60.

Tom, I wouldn't come here if I have to invest 3 million. There are better places like US and UK, Australia. ( to make money) No doubt I prefer my retirement here. It is best for retirement after 60.

P8..."all immigrants need 100K". Where did you get that info from? Many of them arrive with pretty much the clothes on their back.

When I came the $200k gave me the final 2 points needed to get residency. I was stunned when I discovered I could keep the $200k - it wasn't being given to NZ taxpayers to compensate for extra infrastructure, health service, more police & teachers, etc.

Migrants are more likely to have multiple families or generations in a house. In my small cul de sac there is 1x Asian family with the Grandparents living there, and my Indian neighbour had his son and wife (late 30s) until recently. All lovely hard working people.

Cheetah...my Thai friends with one kid and no plans for more bought a SEVEN bedroom house in Whitford last year. I wonder why. (No I don't, I know why). They also told me there is not one NZ born family in their street. Was a bargain too. Only $1.4M. Prolly worth $2M now.

They're a lot more willing to have 10 people under one roof than most Kiwis.

Tom,,far too complicated Tom. We just have to look at "the evidence of the last 40 years". Nothing else matters. LOL

"Covid free heaven" sorry to burst your bubble, but that's not how NZ is perceived.

Secondarily the the roll out of internationally is far in advance of NZ's progression. We are now entering the end game of the pandemic and the world (developed at least) is beginning to reopen.

We can only vaccinated as fast as the stuff is delivered to us which is out of our control, other countries are in far more desperate need than we are. I for one do not mind that being the case.

“Just buy property dammit!!” - they want everyone in the same waka as them screaming for a bail-out when this whole thing inevitably tanks spectacularly.

In the current environment buying a property is still going to be easier and less risky for most people than starting a business, investing in the sharemarket or term deposits. There's a massive housing shortage and rental yields are still better than no profit at all.

12
up

Everybody buying here should be realistic and assume potential capital losses due to high volatility, ignoring that would be a mistake.

Volatility hasn't effected supply. Can you show me where it will effect demand? If the prediction is falling home values and that's going to be bad for investors, then why would a first home buyer get in the market now?

The main issue is that the government needs to bite the bullet in order to solve the housing crisis. They simply need to spend heaps of money building houses and sell them to first home buyers at a massive loss. Rent-to-own, whatever. Get creative. But it's going to cost a lot. That's the only real solution. At least it can be spread across taxpayers.

Without that, there will be a group in society that gets completely hammered. When interest rates go up we will start to see who that is, and it will most likely be renters and those with only one or two houses. And guess who will end up owning those houses in the event of a housing collapse? Property investors.

Unrelated to my comment. But since you ask, the prospect of losses affect differently FHB than it does investors, since the former do not make a loss unless they need to liquidate the asset (i.e. move homes) in which case they will buy in the same market with lower prices.

11
up

You would be. Funny thing is people also thought you were brave to buy for a varying list of reasons in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.
If you are a home buyer and want or need a home then when that need arises is the time to buy. Timing the market when you are taking on a 25-30 year debt is a fools game. You could count on a couple of fingers the number of years in the last 20 that it would have been financially "better" to wait year or two. Good luck getting that right as a FHB.
When prices were 50% below what they are now 2-4years ago in the regions of NZ there wasn't a flood of home buyers. HNZ couldn't give their homes away they were selling with free 10% deposits, but now the same houses sell in under a week with multi offers.. FOMO.
The thing I find interesting is that people think it would it be different now if prices went back to those levels. Why?
If price point was the only determinate in home ownership then towns with $100k houses a couple of years ago should have had 90+% home ownership. Guess what, they never did.

Not great timing but I need to buy. With a 9 month old my wife and I want the stability of knowing where we will be for 5 years. Ah well, I have my health.

12
up

Give this change a fortnight or so to settle in - by that time the trend might be apparent. For sure, that trend won't be higher prices - the real question is if they'll go down; how quickly and how far. We've always found that buying at auction is a good time to do so when there are few buyers around. Just don't bid when the auctioneer takes a bid on behalf of the vendor - that ought to be illegal to my mind.

I think you'll find house prices continue rising as long as people are able to be loaned money for higher prices.

Hence the problem. Banks have already said they will be willing to loan investors less. We already know the LVR restrictions are back in place.

The only question left is how will banks treat first home buyers/owner occupiers. Do they believe prices will continue rising, thus be willing to lend with low deposits. Or will they get squeamish as ask for 20-30% deposits as a minimum?

Tune in next month to find out!

Try to chill for awhile. Perhaps sellers will start pricing their homes closer to their true worth.

It is not pricing the worth of the building that is a worry - it is the perceived value of the land that is the trouble.

That's what they said during the GFC. I haven't bought since then.

That's what they said during the GFC. Haven't purchased since the GFC.

13
up

Speaking on The AM Show about the overheating property market, Orr said investors in particular were getting “pretty carried away”.

“We’re saying look, taihoa (wait) here folks, there is no free lunch, there is no one-way bet in any investment. And when prices are so far stretched beyond the earnings of the household, that is a sign you’ve gone too far.”

10
up

Government just keeps giving money though, so..

Yet the government still openly touts home ownership as 'the single biggest asset you can have'. Is it any wonder we're all so desperate to invest in housing?

You only need one, to live in.

But you cant leave because theres no rental properties? And as soon as you turn 18 you need to buy one.

Asset, but not investment. The house you live in is not an investment. If it was, then it should be taxed on the capital gain.

First homes are being treated as investment properties. Even if you live in it. Even if you just own one at a time. It's what the property ladder is all about. Why else would they call us "first home buyers"? Because it's the first of many.

How many homes do you have to go through before it becomes your "asset" and not "investment"?

The man who knows said it isn't.

Heard of something called Veblen goods?

What I hope we do see in the aftermath of this announcement from the Government is active scrutiny of just exactly how the market responds" agreed, that's what was missing when LVR limits lifted and OCR cut - asleep at the wheel

11
up

"Offering tax breaks for investment behaviour that the government of the day regards as virtuous is not something we do nearly enough of."

Ummm... Isn't that why we are in the pickle we are with property? You know, that Virtuous Investment that generously provides shelter to New Zealander's at discounted prices? (if you can believe the current screams of the Property Investor Lobby!)

"We wouldn't want policies that are designed to help to actually precipitate financial stability issues."
Which is exactly what we have produced with the lunatic policies re property for the last couple of decades! But we, and you, know that.
Let's hope that whatever happens, The Market sets the price of property transactions from now on. Not taxation incentives, not even more Government policy (after this lot of 'changes', and the more to come, work their way through the System), not Importing More Debt Assuming Bodies, but A Market of willing buyers and sellers using their own risk based capital and not uncapped debt.

Tax breaks for crypto investment coming soon? Crypto is a driving force in new innovation. Many people using crypto to grow wealth, save a deposit for a house as a result of ultra low interest rates.

And most importantly: crypto owners expect the price of their cryptocurrencies to go up. Thus govt must guarantee that.

45
up

"For Kiwis it has always been the no-brainer that the word 'investment' is linked inextricably with the words 'buy a property'."
Yes, 'no brains'. No interest in what is happening in the world economy, no curiosity about the machinations of central banks up to and after the GFC, no learnings of the lessons of history on the outcomes of credit fuelled booms & speculative manias. No contrary opinions, no lobbying on behalf of savers, no protest marches over our loss of monetary sovereignty and the impact of this dreadful era on the prospects of future generations. Where were the questions being asked when we apparently had a 'rockstar economy and yet interest rates were not going up?? Where was the critical thinking on the path we were heading down - zero wiggle room in the event that the next inevitable global crisis came along??
It is hard to feel any sympathy for a nation that allows bank economists and property 'experts' to do its critical thinking for it. A society obsessed with property, sport, and keeping up with the Jones's on the latest SUV, Jet-Ski, boat, or bigger house. A people happy to put their entire opulent lifestyle on the little credit card, or the big credit card (the mortgage). I despair of the intellectual ignorance and the shallowness that we collectively exhibit, unable to see the next crisis on its way because we are metally asleep and uncaring about big concepts and big consequences that should be obvious but somehow are not.

15
up

Agree. It doesn't help that we keep branding ourselves as such kind and considerate people, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary when it comes to the most basic of needs, shelter. This absurd delusion needs to be properly shattered.

12
up

Once again Tom Valen Spot On!

Great comment.

12
up

Exactly. I hang my head in despair. I just can't believe how uninformed most people are. The amount of times I've heard, "but property prices only go up", without any serious thinking. Its cringe worthy.

You must have made a tonne of money through your critical thinking.

Beautifully insightful comment. I agree 100%.

I doth my cap in your general direction. Well said sir, well said.

Incredibly well worded. Maybe one for the books.

A lot of thumbs up there but your stating the obvious. The problem with over analysis is that it leads to paralysis. If I listened to many of the posters here my life would have been a whole lot worse. Thankfully I got into the property market in 2005 before discovering interest.co.nz and there was no looking back. There is no point even worrying about the next global crisis unless you want to put your whole life on hold, shit happens its outside of your control.

10
up

... yes , Robbo's reforms were " bold " .... they were largely " stupid " too .... bold does not imply smart , or effective .... Labour still , in their 4'th year of government , still dont understand the housing market ... the infrastructure fund was OK , but far too small ...

Landlords are an easy target ... popular with the public to boot them up the bum .... yet , the vast majority are Mum & Dad owners , own a family home , rent a second one out ... they're not the greedy blood sucking leeches they're made out to be , regular Doris & Boris Morris in Blenheim , or Levin , Whanganui ....

22
up

But isn't the question, "Why did Doris & Boris Morris become landlords in the first place?"
That didn't happen in previous generations, by and large, Landlords were those who used the surplus profits from other businesses.
Doris & Boris Morris owned their own home, had some savings from a lifetime's work, and that was enough.
Yes, time change. But not all change ends up being good.

... regular Kiwis have been landlords of one property for a long time ... this isn't a modern phenomenon ...

Its installed in our DNA to own " bricks & mortar " ... sadly ...

16
up

I can only look at my wider family - both sides. They didn't have a 'renter' They had a home, a bach (that was used by the family at the weekends or friends got to use it gratis), a boat etc, but no ingrained "I must buy rental property to avoid the Demon of Inflation" (which is another lunatic policy we pursue, and in the name of the same debt based ideology) and they went through the 70s saving destruction era.
1985 or thereabout, looks to me about when it all changed. And what happened then? Financial Deregulation. Say no more.

I will say no more too ... clearly I'm swimming against the tide here ... I'm not a landlord ... but can see their frustration at Robbos " bold " plan ... 4 years on , Labour still arent addressing the real issues here : Supply ! .. .

11
up

Not supply. Demand. Demand from immigration (of which the settings remain as silly as ever) that we were not prepared for.

Ostrich mentality ^^. Supply is one of the issues. The other is the landed gentry who own 100+ homes. How many are on this site?

Not sure if the ownership of a house has anything to do with the lack of supply of houses.

The landed gentry (2) people I know with 100+ rentals have been selling hard for the last 18 months. Too painful an industry to be a so called professional in. Leave it to the mum and dad (1-2) house investors to deal with the headaches and move funds to commercial.

26
up

"regular Doris & Boris Morris in Blenheim , or Levin" have used their ability to pass off some of their financing costs to the taxpayer to snap up available houses up and down the country to the extent where their grandkids can't afford to buy. Mum and Dad investors, however, have been all too willing to tip scorn on those trying to buy ever-unaffordable first homes as 'not working hard enough' or 'spending too much on cafes and iphones'.

For just one fleeting moment, the game has been slightly tilted back in favour of someone else, and now it's apparently a breach of their human rights.

Doris and Boris can get f**ked. Doris and Boris are the problem.

12
up

I never liked Doris and Boris :)

12
up

GB...Doris and Boris Morris have been allowed to play on an uneven playing field for too long (claiming interest and depreciation, corporate welfare in the form of the AS, no ring fencing until recently) avoiding tax left right and centre. This is a good start and as long as the Govt understand rents need to be pegged to wages as an important part of the changes it is a good move for NZ and should be applauded.

.. pegging rent rises to wages ??? .... OMG ... that'll lead to awful unforeseen consequences , even I can see that ....

13
up

Why should inflation only apply to the poor?
We're headed towards a Brazil situation if we don't make drastic changes. A landed gentry who are bulletproof and hold all the political power, huddled in mansions while the 90% fight it out in slums outside the gates.

Very real possible scenario, in fact I would go so far as to say, the seeds of that are already sown

Gummy..however awful the consequences may be they could never be as bad as leaving our renters at the mercy of greedy property investors.

.. if it's such a great idea , let's go the whole hog & index annual increases in house prices with wage increases ....

Gummy..such as?

Noah Smith ( Bloomberg Opinions 18/1/18 ) sums it up nicely in his article " Yup , Rent Control Does More Harm Than Good " ... he quotes Swedish Nobel panelist Assar Lindbeck who said of rent controls that they are " the best way to destroy a city , other than bombing . " ...

Rental housing is unaffordable for more than 50% of our renting population. And this was research carried out in 2018;

https://www.hud.govt.nz/news-and-resources/statistics-and-research/housi...

I shudder to guess what that percentage would be now if updated to 2021.

Not really, I could name one that made so much loss in AKL due to GFC, then back again doing the same thing, increasing rents, keep on buying to 5-6 properties, small family.
Can't do it in India or China.. but Hey, can if you're in NZ. How's that make you feel? - when young couple study/worked their butt out in Medicine, just to be outdone every time by those that do not value other things in life apart from.. getting into the ladder. Now look GBH, the real faulty original design of this mess? is from the OZ Banks.
No matter what, any NZ govt & RBNZ... they're all have to suck up to them, the early 90's Neolib loss of bearing,.. now, you'll see soon in less than 15yrs. What is going to happen next? when the easy $ big Chinese banks get a foothold in NZ back in early 90's all still breathing still remembered how NZ wants to lure Japanese, now it's history. Bang! now, NZ facing the unexpected knock at the door.. advancing more and more from mid 20's - NZ is in the little box now as a country.

The Australian banks gone along with these crazy interest rate settings, which see them outlaying billions at low interest rates. It's hardly a focus on quality lending to minimise risk and maximise profits, is it! But as they've only got one string to their bow, they've gone along with the idiocy for fear that they will lose market share.

We should make it so your tax bill is based on how nice you are and on whether you are a Mum or Dad? I am a Dad and I'd like to think an all round good bloke, how come I can't claim my mortgage as an expense?

Fur parent here... does that count? To exclude fur parents wouldn't be kind now would it?

Especially for shelter adoptions. Many of us are deciding not to have kids for a myriad of reasons and becoming fur parents. Where's my WFF?

"Fur parents" get a grip. You're holding an animal hostage.

In a perfect world, we wouldn't be breeding these animals and holding them hostage to meet our needs for companionship and entertainment, I absolutely agree on that. But unless you want to just euthanize the many animals that through no fault of their own are very much alive, thinking, feeling sentient beings and unable to just be released into the wild, then I don't know what the alternative is to people taking them into their homes and caring for them. I'm very much aware that my dogs aren't just furry four legged humans that enjoy being caged inside my home all day subject to my whims. They have particular instincts and needs that need to be met every single day for them to have a decent life, regardless of my own needs/wants/mood etc. If you care about 'pets' being held hostage - I hope you have also had a hard look at what animals in agriculture, entertainment, research and other industries are subjected to. Completely free to watch, though it's hard to make it through to the end: https://www.watchdominion.com

If you are happy to take a very negative EV gamble I say have a punt.

12
up

Wait for the National coming into the office and reverse lots of stupid polices made the these stupid bunch Labour clowns.

14
up

... if the Gnats started making as much sense as ACT , I'd agree with you .... is David Seymour the only MP out of 122 in the Beehive who actually understands the problems we face , & the solutions to them ...

On that we agree.

14
up

Who is going to vote for 'Chucky' Collins and Soimon etc?
I'd agree with you on Seymour, but if he starts siding with the property lobby then he won't be getting my vote.

Same here - DS needs to understand that investors are the very vocal MINORITY.

You've got a bit of a wait there xing. It is expected that the next election will be held in late 2023.

12
up

Xing... no Govt would ever try to reverse it. Imagine having reversing this as your legacy. How could you sleep at night?

Disagree. This helps FHB at the expense of renters. A case could be made to reverse this to help renters. Likewise with building depreciation costs.

Helps FHB at the expense of investors, not renters... The market will determine how much of that pain can be shifted to renters. House prices down a bit (or at least lower than they otherwise would've been) and rents up a bit is my guess, until there is a new equilibrium is found where rental yields make sense based on a new (lower) expectation of capital gains and without the old tax advantage that investors had over owner-occupiers.

Refactornz,
They will have a very hard time convincing people that savings offered to landlord will be passed on to their renters. Historically this has not been the case.

Check the next poll bro Xing, and if they do get in the next election (which I doubt it, NZ historically change govt every 9yrs). Do you think they will abort any regulatory regime that silently they want to implement? - here's how it play in NZ...'when the new govt in? - leave mostly the last govt rule/regulation.. so it can be used against them in the bullshit castle/aka Beehive. Remember Xing time=$, in NZ kiwis love to delay things=cost $=to be harnessed by the unruly pest=to be channeled into govt guaranteed housing ponzi scheme.
The guarantee will always be in the name of 'economic stability' - to be paid it the F*** all future generations, life in NZ? it's about now, now, binge, binge.. hope you can exploit further those Kiwi mental fragility... give them $, then you're in, promise them a golden tulips? crypto?... anything, their societal fabric is already severely distorted.. time to harness it.

16
up

National's policies were reduce the bright line test and reintroduce foreign buyers, reversing Labours changes. This proved to me that they aren't the party for business, they are the party to support the entitled rich (of which a lot haven't done anything innovative to make their money, just leveraged property investment)

10
up

Hugely disappointing....just one plan: run a property Ponzi scheme.

11
up

With massive scale immigration as the fuel

As winston said - "two wongs don't make a right." National will do nothing other than extend their legacy of growing the economy through immigration while doing little to improve and expand core infrastructure to keep up. Perhaps you're a case study in the failure of such a policy Xing? National are not the party of solutions, they're not even prepared to reverse policy their party might consider bad. Key's government relied on the housing ponzi for economic growth, as has Ardern's up until this point.

Love how you start your argument with a racist quote.

Winnie was deputy for the last 2 Labour governments and all he achieved is to lose Kiwi their rights and privileges in Australia and have Dutton sending our country's finest back ashore every Thursdays- even in the middle of a pandemic!

I guess 2 Winnies don't make you a winner.

Will be interesting to see what policy they come up with. I doubt they could get 50% of the vote by returning tax breaks to PIs. Maybe let Act promise that and get the PI votes while National go in another direction?

And I see ASB has estimated the tax change will bring in up to $1 billion a year. So National would also need to cut $1 billion of govt spending a year to reverse the tax changes. I doubt it will be popular.

There is a greater chance of this happening, as the knock on effects of these new taxation policies will be felt by everyone come election time. Labour have already proven themselves to be masters of unintended consequences. And now they have created a chaotic situation for all New Zealanders. Best to hang tight and see it through. Sadly homelessness and unemployment will be the bigger social issues by then.

Just like interest free student loan got reversed. This will only be temporary.

"So, all we can do now is watch and wait. And see what happens".
Agreed and so will RBNZ.
As the consequences may not be fully known for some months, RBNZ May Monetary Policy Statement may included minimal action such as related to interest only mortgages and DTIs. They will not be wanting to add to any significant correction and undo their actions to date in housing stimulating the wider economy.

23
up

I have been investing in shares and crypto for years, and those are only two pieces of the investment pie. This country has an embarrassingly, and damagingly myopic view of what 'investment' is.

It would have been nice to see some changes around overseas investment taxation...

I agree that the "investment=housing" mindset is a problem. But is the problem in taxation or practical access? The later at least has been changing.

Agreed. In the UK, a few years ago they introduced tax breaks for interest and dividend payments, up to a few grand. Could potentially encourage other investments (although our imputation credit system already does a bit of this). Reducing taxation of Kiwisaver, or increasing government contributions, would be a good move too.

In the same way some property investors think investing in shares and Cryptocurrency is myopic with the latter being fool's gold.

Most people who had worked in their lives would had Kiwisaver and that is already investing in shares.

Your typical property investor is more diversely invested than your dear self.

I trust when you say "property investors" you mean people invested in commercial real estate, because if they are landlords, a better wording to use is "people farmer". At some point you may grasp the reality of the situation

Leechlords exist to suck money from those doing productive work for the country. A lot of them could be viewed as financial parasites.

Being an accommodation provider to many, is more socially responsible that being in crypto and shares.

Yeah, nothing says 'contributing to society' more than outbidding some FHBs and helping permanently lock them out of the market.

People still continue to occupy that property. Are their needs less valid?

Without the share market we would all be far poorer. Where do you think the money for modern medical developments came from, for example? Capital raises and IPOs are very common, and even if buying existing shares you contribute to a strong capital market which allows cap raises and IPOs to exist.

Funny I don't see you offering homes to those on the social housing waitlist in emergency or even no accommodation for affordable rates that they could afford (often zero if you are disabled and the govt denies many disabled under 65 any income support) and then maintaining those homes to a livable standard. Perhaps I missed the part where you said you donate property to charity as I am doing.

Kiwisaver got raided for a house deposit remember..

A typical kiwi property investor has one, maybe two, properties. Both in the same country, same asset class, probably same city, maybe even same suburb. This is roughly as diversified as me ploughing most of my net worth into Tesla stock, maybe with some Apple stock to add diversity. In fact - to be truly equivalent I'd have to borrow heavily and invest 2-3 times my net worth into that single stock.

Meanwhile, with cheap brokers like Sharesies and InvestNow available, anyone with a few hundred dollars to invest can scatter their money around the entire world, and a multitude of industries. Even some residential, commercial and industrial property with a few REITS.

Not even comparable.

Correction - "This is roughly as diversified as me ploughing most of my net worth into Tesla stock, maybe with some Apple stock to add diversity and get someone else to pay for most of it."

There. Fixed it for you

"If, for example, there was to be a sharp slide in property prices there may need to be some reaction to this. Because of course the most affected people would likely be those who have just recently bought a house (and therefore have low equity). And yes, I'm thinking particularly of first home buyers."

Hi David, Agree that most affected will be FHB but as FHB are in for long period, with any fall though may feel bad with notional loss if any but will know that over long term, will be a winner and are in their Home BUT speculators who buy to flip will be stuck and lose most (though even speculators who have been flipping since long and have done number of time will be fine, if make loss in the last flip, having made heaps in earlier flip but after making loss will stop, which is exactly that govt wants).

The biggest gain from any fall will be on FOMO as without realising FOMO is killing FHB, who under FOMO are buying in extreme, so overall affect to fall as in any economy also will be good.

More than tax change ( though good) , government should have banned interest only as is the biggest contributor supporting speculator though not much has been discussed or highlighted on interest only loan.

If a speculator can afford $600 per week to pay with principal and interest ( Like FHB) , may be could afford to buy $600000 or $700000 or maximum $800000 house BUT with INTEREST ONLY could easily buy 1.2 or even 1.4 million dollar house depending upon his deposit - does it not clearly amplify and good enough reason to act and act soon.

Why wait as last year when had fear of price fall, did not wait for measures to impliment, one at a time but tried all so why not now.

Mentioning again importance of controlling interest only loan as you too have totally skipped the importance that it could achieve.

People who renovate and sell houses for a business have always paid tax. 15% GST plus income tax. I do it and pay about 44% on each property.

Good Point Stuart, Interest only loan is a tool that has been used extensively by speculators as it allow them to buy at premium over FHB and though Jacinda Arden did gave a passing one line statement in her Big announcement on IO loan and DTI her intention lacks conviction and sincerity.

Investors will go into a zero spend mode for the next 6 months.
Bad luck if you are a business that depends on people spending (ie, a business). No domestic money, no international money, no plan from Government beyond an announcement that they will make an announcement in April about a limited watered down travel bubble. No plan but let's keep moving anyway.

Still plenty of domestic consumer money I reckon.

We're about to find out.

Indeed ! My money is with you nktokyo.

20
up

Let's Keep Moving away from basing our economy on a property Ponzi scheme which relies on absurdly cheap money, government subsidies, and the importation of large quantities of people. For the sake of our collective future, Let's Do This!

Meth dealers spend a lot of money into the economy!
Let's tell those nasty cops to leave them alone, or all the motorbike dealerships will suffer. How could we tolerate that?

Maybe, if the price of houses decrease, there will be more available money to spend for the new generation, for new FHB's and the productive part of NZ.
Maybe, if people do not have to serve a lifetime of mortgage servitude because they were forced buy at inflated prices into the NZ property Ponzi, they will have more money to spend and invest in the real economy.
Maybe the money not spent by specuvestors will be equally spent by new FHB's to improve and renovate their own property.
Maybe if not all money is wasted on ever-inflating housing Ponzi, such money may be spent on the real economy to improve productivity, invest and grow real businesses, and have a much deeper capital market than the pitifully small market we have now.

Zero spending mode and inflation target will fail again...interest rate stays low..

20
up

The first thing that could happen is that the words "housing" and "market" never appear in the same sentence again, to be replaced with simply "homes" so maybe we can again understand the purpose of them.
It is time, well past in truth for the end of this whole never losing casino that "people farming" has become. It has nearly destroyed this country.

12
up

It's not even a market anyway....in a true market prices are allowed to rise and fall. Just look at the way the Reserve Bank dropped their n*ts at the thought of a 10% fall.

They don't have nuts. It's an empty useless wrinkly sack

Wo!

10
up

Property ladder is another term I would like to see outlawed. Even the bloody pollies are using this.

The most significant determinant of the housing market remains the continued fall in the OCR, the 150bps fall in the OCR since May 2019 and the similar fall in mortgage rates which will continue to flow thru the housing market for another 12-18 months.

12
up

The affect of falling interest rate could have been contained by stopping interest only loan to investors but...who cares....Even now are thinking and waiting.......ask them why no action, if actually wants to see result.

11
up

Reserves been set in auction are high and still houses that are been sold are getting sold much above the reserves indicates that market is hot and will remain :

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/the-mood-in-the-auction-rooms-they-are-pu...

More than governments policy it is reintroduction of LVR that may have some affect but not as much as last time, as many investors equity has multiplied much higher which can still be used to get loan approved and Interest Only can be used to service that loan.

RBNZ should act on interest only loan, if it really wants to contain speculation without increasing the interest rate.

Interest Only loan together with low interest rate is a deadly combination and perfect recipe to support housing ponzi, How come not acted upon till now.

The market has already shifted - in January and February compared to Nov and Dec.
In Nov and Dec combined Auckland sales were 35% up on prev year
In NSC it was same
In Rodney it was up 39%

Now look at Jan and Feb: Auckland down 5.3%
NSC still up 14%
Rodney down 17%

price mania was also focused in Nov-Dec from REINZ data.

Listings, auction data and sales data all show slowing and normalisation.
Rising inflation, bond prices, LVR reinstatement and gov cuts to subsidising tax relief for investors all back up the trend. The turn is in. Slowing from here.
Also, look at world situation , where stimulus is being withdrawn or tightened re mortgage forebearance

Yes prices will continue to rise in Auckland and elsewhere, but the tide is going out now on mania.

Data suggested that in just one month - february house price increased by $100000 so price wise it shifted higher ..much higher.

"Yes prices will continue to rise in Auckland and elsewhere, but the tide is going out now on mania."

That's the issue though, ain't it? Who cares about auction sales rates & listing amounts, if what does sell is at record highs?

What would happen to the money supply if nobody took at a mortgage for 6 months?

There were too many vulnerable property owners when Labour came to power in 2017. Both investors and owner occupiers. The required reforms would see prices fall and owners upside down. We had a housing bubble and prices way out of alignment with incomes. But the market first needed a few more kicks to improve existing owners equity positions. 0.5% OCR cut in 2019 wasn't enough. Then Covid gave the incentive to go full bore and put the plan into action. Drop the OCR to 0.25% and remove LVR's in the blink of an eye. Pump 10 billion of liquidity into New Zealand business in a week. They knew that New Zealand's comfortably off slave owners would not be able to resist. Now they have succeeded in getting prices up to the required level the reforms can start. Prices will drop back to Q1 2020 levels through a combination of reforms and the economic reality of the situation New Zealand is actually in right now. But no one really lost anything unless the purchased in the last 6 months. If they were investors I don't care. I just feel sorry for the FHB's who are the cannon fodder. The RBNZ,Government and trading banks all know the easiest way to get away with something is to pretend to be stupid. Looking back it is hard not to think they all knew exactly what they were doing.

Yes they have engineered a tax grab. How about reducing income taxes to compensate?

I'd love a tax cut on my Kiwisaver. A tax switch, given the BLT will increase tax. That would stave off some of National's attacks. After all, Key and English used a tax switch to sell their GST increase.

David appears to be arguing both that the Gov't was too slow to act, and also that this was too hasty.
*Any* action would be 'too hasty'. We have a generation who regard risk-free capital growth as a human right, and who don't give a damn whether they can only extract it by indebting others. We need to change this idea that it's normal to get wealthier and wealthier every year, even after retirement - that kind of perpetual increase can only be maintained with ever-growing debt that 'someone else' will ultimately pay for.

You may be on to something here.

The poor and lazy extract from the government, the government extracts from the working, the working extract from the wealthy and the wealthy extracts from the poor and lazy.

It comes a full circle- no one is short changed, unless you want more than your share in your specialty.

Ah yes. Just oversimplify and rearrange the order of things to suit your preferred narrative. Genius.

the rent increases have already started - ive been watching the rentals in the hutt valley- there was a place that listed on the 8th March for $650 a week- rent now advertised as of today - $700 a week.

'advertised', no guarantee they'll get it...

But is an indicator of things to come

No guarantee they won't either.

Why don't they just save everybody time and put it up to $2000 / week now?

Thank you so much for confirming why this whole nasty business of "people farming" needs kicking to the kerb.

Thats a huge sample. Not.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300261797/investors-might-pay-30-per-ce...

ASB economist suggest that investors will now pay 30% less that means for 1.3 million dollar house investor will be pay $910000 and assuming that FHB under FOMO ( will take time to die) will pay more than investor now so if ASB economist who is implying that 1.3 million house will fall to near around million - if that does not happen may be consider taking a jump from harbour bridge.

Little money and vested biased interest prompt human being from lying and manipulating and we call them economist, experts and politicians.

and it has never crossed your mind that FHB's are bidding against each other too? In your mind it's only 1 FHB vs 1 Investor, investor can afford 30% less therefore FHB can buy for 30% less. A bit simplistic

It's a good time for investors to re-balance their portfolios.

There are gems to found when non-pliable investors exit the market.

Don't waste a crisis- be quick.

Yep. Catch that falling knife

If by this announcement will be a crisis, than it is the begining of the crisis and as such should wait for it affects to be felt all across the market but I feel that is more sound for effect.

The best time to buy is when no one else is. Can't see that happening any time soon.

Little gems like the shipping container sized 1 bedroom box going in Wellington for $795,000.

It's like selling a boiled tulip bulb for mega-guilders during that similar notorius speculative mania.

Those kind of absurd prices are really indicative of a bubble

Opportunities abound for the savvy and astute investor!!!!

Good Article in newshub....

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/03/opinion-non-homeowners-a...

Awareness is the first step ....now time to act. RBNZ instigated it by reducing interest rate by economy compulsion, if can say so - Now RBNZ can rectify as have support and mandate to remove interest only loan and DTI.

"Because of course the most affected people would likely be those who have just recently bought a house (and therefore have low equity). And yes, I'm thinking particularly of first home buyers." Finally someone is acknowledging the position of recent FHB who have done all they can to get a house by getting a good job, prob also paying off a student loan, saving a deposit, bidding and losing at auctions, bidding and losing at tenders (hideous process) and now have a house. Hopefully, soon there will be even more FHB. Big ups to these young people who have pulled this off.

And they've probably raided their Kiwisaver as well. And roped the Bank of Mum & Dad into buying their first home.
What a despicable 'market' we've allowed to develop over the last, at least 15 years.
The tragedy is, though, that to fix it, someone(s) were always going to be the last buyers (FHBers, probably) at the end of the party when the music stops, left chairless.

Also lying naked, below high tide with a bloody knife in their hand.

Well, asset inflation tends to happen when you print $100 billion and debase a currency

With the likelihood that landlords will look to increase rents to pass this tax bill onto renters the dip may only be temporary, this could just be another tax take to offset the massive covid costs

The problem with all of these policies is that governments are only in for 4 years (or 8 if their lucky) and cannot impart long lasting changes... so it is likely that if Labour upset enough people this term. They will be ousted and whoever replaces them have a direct trigger to buy the investor votes... i.e. unwind the policy...

4 year terms? 8 maximum? We are not the USA. It doesn't work the same everywhere.

https://www.govt.nz/browse/engaging-with-government/government-in-new-ze...

Let's hope if there are widespread rental increases, the Government lets loose with the next round of 'incentives' to challenge that action.
The sooner the property lobby accepts 'the party is over' and learns to live with a new set of rules, the easier it will be on them and tenants.

I honestly hope they try. Then there would be no excuse for Labour not to step in and finally regulate increases. It's so long overdue.

I see stuff muddying the waters about FHBs needing to be 'exempt' from the Brightline test, when they actually mean "FHBs who buy a house, live in it and then rent it out like any other investment property".

This. Is. The. Problem. FHBS who buy a house and only ever live in it as a family home, are exempt.

The only decisions that are going to stick are the ones that make sure the Champagne socialists get another feed at the trough.

Housing instead of being a government protected ponzi, is now just an everyday ponzi.

Who actually wants house prices to come down? What FHB wants to buy a house as they are coming down? And what bank will lend to a FHB while prices are going down? the equity they put in will start to erode as soon as they take ownership. In reality what everyone wants is a better paying job.

Every person that doesn't own a home and is upset at house price increases will immediately flip their view as soon as they own a home. If you are buying a house just to live in not as an investment, why would you? Surely it would be cheaper to just rent.

"Who actually wants house prices to come down?" People who don't own a house of course

22
up

I do. And I own a property.
I know you don't see it, but the country would be far better off.
And guess what? I won't be on my own with that view.
A 50% fall and I'd be well and truly behind on what I paid for my current home. I'd like to see a 75% fall.
Maybe you'll suggest "it's easy for you to say that because that's not going to happen".
It can and it has before. All that we don't know is if it will, and then when.

(NB: The reason? We HAVE to release trapped debt from the residential property market and apply it to productive enterprise. Yes, a lot will get lost in the transition - Negative Equity etc - but until we learn that there are no free lunches; that we have to make stuff and sell it and pay wages to do so, and not just speculate on the desperation of other citizens to put a roof over their heads, then little will happen. "Experience is the best teacher" and all of that. We need to get back to working to create wealth; personally and nationally.)

Have you considered the impacts for the wider economy if your wish came true? 75% drop could result in 75% unemployed believe it or not.

His wish will be in about 30yrs, when you study Japanese case of massive QE bail out, but hey.. I bet you still see Corolla made in Japan 30 years ago roaming around NZ - I'm not sure what NZ can show the world in the future.. what they famous for? - being kind? let's do this? let's keep on moving? Now, let's take that one to one emotional ratio of 75% drop becoming 75% unemployed.. to some property investors may be.. for teacher, doctor/nurses, rubbish collector, supermarket worker, dentist, pharmacist etc. - they'll still have productive work, unlike the recent example of RE industries.. grabbing the wage subsidy.

14
up

I own my home and would like prices to come down. The country will be better for it. Plus, if I ever want to upgrade it will be more achievable (I don't see any need for this in the next decade or so though)

Who actually benefits from house prices going up? People with more than one house, or those wanting to downsize, of course.

100%

Hey Judith!

I own a house. Currently at 72% LVR after nearly 4 years ownership (up from 23%). I wouldn't mind if house prices crashed, if it meant my peers and some relatives could afford to buy.

People who don’t own a house, yes. Which is an actual (ever-growing) majority of adults.
I would be perfectly happy to buy a property with 0% chance of capital gains if it were at a historically reasonable multiple of my income , say 4x. Some of us are not grasping sociopaths- we just want a stable place to live.

It's almost like having a stable and secure place to live is a good foundation for stuff like having a family or something. Or is it? I don't know, I'll ask my friends who got turfed out of a rental a year for a decade when landlords decided they wanted to pocket a ta-free gain whether they think not having it is a good thing.

I rented as family with kids for 15 years before buying. It wasn't bad. Only once turfed out which was actually good as we found a place even closer to school. We got to live in nice central areas and didn't have to worry about maintenance or anything. Not all renters have a bad experience. I guess it depends a bit on which decile you're renting.

And it used to be that every time you got 'turfed out' (and it happened A LOT to many a renter), you also had to pay the next agent a full week's rent for giving you the "opportunity" to rent the next place. Thank goodness Labour got rid of that (it was called a 'letting fee').

I'd like to see some research on just what the value of letting fees were over say, the 10-year period prior to Labour outlawing them.
Theft, from the vulnerable pure and simple.

There won't be a soft landing for the housing cost let alone fall. The govt already stated the intention of price increase of 4%. Despite that NZ is second only to Luxembourg for expensive housing on the planet and local wages not even increasing that much, the fall of 55% of housing to achieve balance with income? dream on. Now, surely all laugh with suggestion to have local wages improving by 120%. So, how it can be balanced in medium-longer term? - Answer: Let young local knew that current distortion to be paid by future generations, and at the same time (sooner), open the easy $ through border..'investment' - $ in to 'buffer any market distortion' but yea, people must come with it. Remember, capital movement to any point must be accompanied by it's people movement. - It's just that..no teacher, no police, no doctor/nurses, no farmer, no dentist, no physiotherapist, no pharmacist,.. no one want to live in NZ - except, the welcoming grinning smile of RE priest - I welcome you to Jurassic park, I welcome you to Jones town,.. I welcome you to Aotearoa NZ.

Cannot wait, sounds like heaven

Some air definitely had to be taken out of that bubble, nothing more dangerous for an economy that has a properly bubble, good work NZ government, 4 years in and have done much more than the last lot did in 9 years.

Join KiwiSaver ....stop all our Politicians and Public Servants wasting Taxpayers Money. Or is there no bleedin Interest...except Houses.

Easier to Save money, than waste it.........

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/auckland-ratepayers-cough-up-38k...