RBNZ figures show that housing investors had their smallest share of the mortgage money advanced last month since the data began being collected in 2014

Well if you are a speculator, where is the opportunity?  It's not in capital growth. If there is one it will be to keep your cash ready to buy at the bottom.

Plus deliberate Govt. policy of pushing renters into corporate type BTRs for true long-term landlords, and better returns money in the bank.

If you can't lose they should all be piling in as houses are on sale at 20% off

Probably because they can't keep leveraging against the fake value in their existing properties when the market is falling

As far as I can see, the numbers aren't stacking up, rental yields at current pricing is terribad, and there's a wide range of legislation that making landlording fairly unappealing, particularly if the house is pre 1990 or so.

It'll be good in that the standard of rentals will be better overall in the medium term, downside is presumably these older uncompliant rentals will end up in the hands of FHBs and the cost of bringing some of them up to scratch is fairly significant.

I'm guessing many investors will migrate to intensive units being built in the major cities.

Time to give labour some credit perhaps?

Will certainly reverse if National got back in.

Well done that man!

Noice

Good summary.

National will remedy that demographic change make no mistake about it. The very reason I remain conflicted as I prefer right wing politics. 

Same happening in the labour market, which is exacerbating the labour shortages.

BB's in their early sixties retiring left and right at my work.

it's never really that simple, if it is then shoot the boomers and you would get problem solved, but would you?

investors, be that speculator or long term property investors, are all profit driven, and certainly won't go shopping when no profit out there. all of this is due the the financial market changes, and the general economic environment condition changes. with interest rate increases,  interest deductability removed, and no prospect of capital gain, there isn't money in there anymore.

It's too early to comment on the government's policy toughing up on landlords.  Rentals are always in demand, and there'll always be people renting, if you beat up the ma-n-pa landlords, the big corps will take over, and they will have a price setting power to rents. some examples are, some 40% rentals are controlled by a few corporates in some US states, which drive people out of affordable rentals into pricier ones. 

there will be another issue on the rise, that's the over supply of townhouses and units in big cities. it won't end too well in my opinion, as many developers, investors will get burnt. however, it'll make houses with some land with it more valuable, for long term investors, there will be money to be made.

and last point, every one will get to a point to retire, boomers may seem to be rich, but reality is it's not enough, for most of them.  You may be in that position too.

That's the denial phase. The same people were fully convinced that paper gains are real wealth on the way up.

Oh yeah, and the other one is that if property loses value it only matters if it's the banks money.  If there is no mortgage, then your money, apparently, is a free good.

If you are forced to sell you loose a lot more.

Are you disagreeing with the statement of increase and decrease of activity by investors?

Or do you somehow feel this implies judgement of housing investors?

And presumably if you object to "assault", you object to "retreat"?

A landlord who cares about the impact on young people?

I don't believe it.

I. Don't. Believe. It.     

Just sounds like crocodile tears.   "Boo hoo hoo, I have 300 tenants and need to raise rents so high that it causes them hardship.    Poor, noble, overtaxed me."

I always found comments like one from your friend a bit illogical.. If the investor landlord sells:

• Another investor landlord buys.  Aggregate rental supply does not change, hence no impact on rents.  Perhaps the new investor might even be able to enter at lower cost base, allowing their rental offer to be competitive and put downward pressure on rents.
• An occupier/FHB buys.  Aggregate supply decreases, but so does aggregate demand.  Perhaps a slight imbalance towards less supply due to smaller household size.  But the new owner occupier can always get a flatmate for a few years, in which case the overall demand for housing is unchanged.

So where is the supply shortage coming from?? Immigration? Houses that magically disappear when a speculator sells?

The only thing I can think of is a temporary squeeze in supply when the house sits empty during the selling/settlement process.

Fellow slum lord!!!

sounds like just your type

Yvil, this is interesting. There was a video posted here on this website about the Irish property crash 2007-2014, a few weeks ago. The price crash was severe - then, ironically, there was another shortage of rentals. I did not quite understand why, the video did not explain this. But what your UK friend is saying could be the reason.

In other words, ironically, at the end of the current property crash we could perhaps see another shortage of rentals. I wonder if it would simply be best to hang on now, instead of selling? 

So what happens to the homes that they are selling up?

In a fair world TA would be off to the guillotine.

No one talks about the DTI ratio being implemented... thats got the potential to keep things down longer once it settles.

Well said.  We bought our first home in 2017, sold it late 2021 to a FHB for nearly triple what we paid.  It gave us a sizeable deposit which put us into our dream home with a very healthy equity buffer. 

Looking back on it all, I really do feel remorse for holding a gun to their head.  

I wonder about them sometimes also, but not from the 'greedy' perspective. There are more OO with larger debt-to-income ratios than either FHBs or investors, so I wonder how they got there: a large deposit from the sale of their previous house sans existing mortgage.

These people also are losing large amounts of equity as the value of their houses drop, and it would take a significant (but not unforeseeable) drop in house values to put them in negative equity.

But those interest increases on massive DTIs are gonna hurt.

Naivety is not restricted to just FHBs and specuvestors.

No it’s the capitulation of capital gains.