David Hargreaves

BNZ economists think the Reserve Bank will start to raise interest rates in the third quarter of this year but won't want to signpost that yet in its first Official Cash Rate review for the year next week

BNZ economists think the Reserve Bank will start to raise interest rates in the third quarter of this year but won't want to signpost that yet in its first Official Cash Rate review for the year next week

ASB economists stress the importance of studying 'high frequency' economic data at a time when our official GDP figures are both lagged and containing less reliable data than they did

ASB economists stress the importance of studying 'high frequency' economic data at a time when our official GDP figures are both lagged and containing less reliable data than they did

Record surge in amount of mortgage money moving to fixed rates in December as homeowners digested Reserve Bank's November OCR announcement and then acted - decisively

Record surge in amount of mortgage money moving to fixed rates in December as homeowners digested Reserve Bank's November OCR announcement and then acted - decisively

Dairy company Synlait is 'very disappointed' with its latest six-month result and the impact it has had on the pace of the company's financial turnaround

Dairy company Synlait is 'very disappointed' with its latest six-month result and the impact it has had on the pace of the company's financial turnaround

The struggling retailer says its current cost base 'is not sustainable for a value retailer'

The struggling retailer says its current cost base 'is not sustainable for a value retailer'

Residential property investors increased their mortgage pile by over $7 bln in 2025 and are taking up mortgage money at a proportionately faster rate than owner-occupiers

Residential property investors increased their mortgage pile by over $7 bln in 2025 and are taking up mortgage money at a proportionately faster rate than owner-occupiers

Credit bureau Centrix says there were nearly 3000 company liquidations last year - the most since 2010 in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Credit bureau Centrix says there were nearly 3000 company liquidations last year - the most since 2010 in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis

BNZ's Mike Jones says the cash flow release from mortgage repricing will remain a support for the economic recovery this year, albeit a dissipating one

BNZ's Mike Jones says the cash flow release from mortgage repricing will remain a support for the economic recovery this year, albeit a dissipating one

Stats NZ says falling interest rates helped push household living costs down below the official rate of inflation as measured by the Consumers Price Index in the past year

Stats NZ says falling interest rates helped push household living costs down below the official rate of inflation as measured by the Consumers Price Index in the past year

Labour market figures to be released in the coming week will likely show an improving picture overall for employment, but that might not yet be enough to see the unemployment rate drop from the nearly nine-year high it hit in September

Labour market figures to be released in the coming week will likely show an improving picture overall for employment, but that might not yet be enough to see the unemployment rate drop from the nearly nine-year high it hit in September

Latest Reserve Bank figures show a massive spike in change of loan provider in December, with record amounts being moved and a record share of the total new monthly mortgage market

Latest Reserve Bank figures show a massive spike in change of loan provider in December, with record amounts being moved and a record share of the total new monthly mortgage market

'We are forecasting the first OCR hike to come in December this year, but if these pricing intentions manifest in hard data, it’ll come earlier than that'

'We are forecasting the first OCR hike to come in December this year, but if these pricing intentions manifest in hard data, it’ll come earlier than that'

New Zealand's exports reached more that $80 billion for the first time last year, but we did still import slightly more than we exported

New Zealand's exports reached more that $80 billion for the first time last year, but we did still import slightly more than we exported

There was a slight drop in filled jobs in December - but a very sharp upward revision to November figures

There was a slight drop in filled jobs in December - but a very sharp upward revision to November figures

Retail NZ says the Black Friday-led surge in sales in November did not continue into December and believes retailers will 'be bracing for a possible rocky few months ahead of them'

Retail NZ says the Black Friday-led surge in sales in November did not continue into December and believes retailers will 'be bracing for a possible rocky few months ahead of them'

Latest Reserve Bank figures show just under half of mortgage money uplifted in November - nearly $4 billion - was on floating rates. If the intention was to take advantage of future fixed mortgage rate falls, this plan appears to have been frustrated

Latest Reserve Bank figures show just under half of mortgage money uplifted in November - nearly $4 billion - was on floating rates. If the intention was to take advantage of future fixed mortgage rate falls, this plan appears to have been frustrated

The latest BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Services Sector Index showed that the services industries, which make up about two thirds of our GDP, have moved into expansion for the first time since February 2024

The latest BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Services Sector Index showed that the services industries, which make up about two thirds of our GDP, have moved into expansion for the first time since February 2024

Fletcher Building selling its problematic construction division to a large French company for over $300 million

Fletcher Building selling its problematic construction division to a large French company for over $300 million

December quarter Consumers Price Index figures may show our inflation rate once again above the 1% to 3% target range. How new RBNZ Governor Anna Breman will respond to our stubborn high prices in her first OCR review next month will be keenly watched

December quarter Consumers Price Index figures may show our inflation rate once again above the 1% to 3% target range. How new RBNZ Governor Anna Breman will respond to our stubborn high prices in her first OCR review next month will be keenly watched

In his state of the nation address, Christopher Luxon has focused on the Government's reform of KiwiSaver, NCEA and the RMA and says there's 'no room for extravagant election promises'

In his state of the nation address, Christopher Luxon has focused on the Government's reform of KiwiSaver, NCEA and the RMA and says there's 'no room for extravagant election promises'

Stats NZ says the 1.1% rise in economic activity in the September 2025 quarter was broad-based, with increases in 14 out of 16 industries

Stats NZ says the 1.1% rise in economic activity in the September 2025 quarter was broad-based, with increases in 14 out of 16 industries

Fonterra's forecast milk price for farmers in the current season has now been chopped by 10% from the co-operative's opening forecast level; latest reduction sees price trimmed to $9 from $9.50

Fonterra's forecast milk price for farmers in the current season has now been chopped by 10% from the co-operative's opening forecast level; latest reduction sees price trimmed to $9 from $9.50

Following another difficult global dairy auction this week, prices are now at their lowest level in two years, having dropped 25% from the recent peak in May and putting downward pressure on Fonterra's already reduced milk price forecast

Following another difficult global dairy auction this week, prices are now at their lowest level in two years, having dropped 25% from the recent peak in May and putting downward pressure on Fonterra's already reduced milk price forecast

The deficit between what we earn overseas and what we spend has continued to narrow, now to 3.5% of GDP, compared with a level of 9% three years ago; global credit rating agencies should be happy

The deficit between what we earn overseas and what we spend has continued to narrow, now to 3.5% of GDP, compared with a level of 9% three years ago; global credit rating agencies should be happy

Governor Anna Breman says the Reserve Bank 'really has to consider' moving to eight OCR meetings per year - something the bank switched away from 10 years ago

Governor Anna Breman says the Reserve Bank 'really has to consider' moving to eight OCR meetings per year - something the bank switched away from 10 years ago