David Hargreaves

The latest quarterly Household Expectations Survey for the Reserve Bank finds that households reckon the inflation rate will be 4.9% in a year and they don't see it being within the 1% to 3% target range over the next five years

The latest quarterly Household Expectations Survey for the Reserve Bank finds that households reckon the inflation rate will be 4.9% in a year and they don't see it being within the 1% to 3% target range over the next five years

Members of the 'Shadow Board' the NZIER assembles to state views on the Official Cash Rate strongly agree the OCR will be cut 50 basis points this week - but there's a diversity of views on what should come next

Members of the 'Shadow Board' the NZIER assembles to state views on the Official Cash Rate strongly agree the OCR will be cut 50 basis points this week - but there's a diversity of views on what should come next

The services sector expanded slightly in January, as did the manufacturing sector - results that point toward an economic recovery later in the year

The services sector expanded slightly in January, as did the manufacturing sector - results that point toward an economic recovery later in the year

A 50-point cut to the Official Cash Rate is a near certainty in the coming week, so attention will quickly turn to whatever signals the Reserve Bank may give about further cuts

A 50-point cut to the Official Cash Rate is a near certainty in the coming week, so attention will quickly turn to whatever signals the Reserve Bank may give about further cuts

Influential RBNZ survey has shown drops in the expectations of the future levels of inflation in a move that will give the central bank comfort ahead of its first Official Cash Rate decision of the year next week

Influential RBNZ survey has shown drops in the expectations of the future levels of inflation in a move that will give the central bank comfort ahead of its first Official Cash Rate decision of the year next week

Stats NZ says retail card spending dropped 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January after growing strongly in December

Stats NZ says retail card spending dropped 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January after growing strongly in December

Latest monthly RBNZ figures show sharp drops in what customers were paying on new mortgage rates in the second half of last year - but the bank yields on existing mortgages are falling only very slightly

Latest monthly RBNZ figures show sharp drops in what customers were paying on new mortgage rates in the second half of last year - but the bank yields on existing mortgages are falling only very slightly

Westpac economists believe the record returns likely coming to dairy farmers this milking season can be just about maintained in the next season as well

Westpac economists believe the record returns likely coming to dairy farmers this milking season can be just about maintained in the next season as well

Latest monthly RBNZ figures show that in December the very brief flirtation with floating rate mortgages was replaced by a surge of interest in six month fixed rates

Latest monthly RBNZ figures show that in December the very brief flirtation with floating rate mortgages was replaced by a surge of interest in six month fixed rates

The Reserve Bank will have to deliver more interest rate cuts than it has signalled this year, or the risk of further job losses will only grow, Kiwibank economists say

The Reserve Bank will have to deliver more interest rate cuts than it has signalled this year, or the risk of further job losses will only grow, Kiwibank economists say

The decision by many homeowners to position themselves for expected interest rate cuts will see an average of over $30b a month worth of mortgages need refixing in the first six months of this year

The decision by many homeowners to position themselves for expected interest rate cuts will see an average of over $30b a month worth of mortgages need refixing in the first six months of this year

Stats NZ says high interest payments on mortgages continue to contribute 'significantly' to living costs

Stats NZ says high interest payments on mortgages continue to contribute 'significantly' to living costs

Capital Economics says the resulting surge in US inflation from the announced tariffs is going to 'come faster and be larger than we initially expected'

Capital Economics says the resulting surge in US inflation from the announced tariffs is going to 'come faster and be larger than we initially expected'

Labour market figures to be released in the coming week, could show unemployment hitting 5% for the first time since a brief spike during the pandemic, but David Hargreaves says with interest rates now coming down employment levels may start to settle

Labour market figures to be released in the coming week, could show unemployment hitting 5% for the first time since a brief spike during the pandemic, but David Hargreaves says with interest rates now coming down employment levels may start to settle

David Hargreaves examines mortgage figures for 2024 and compares figures over the 10-year timeframe that the detailed Reserve Bank data now covers

David Hargreaves examines mortgage figures for 2024 and compares figures over the 10-year timeframe that the detailed Reserve Bank data now covers

ANZ chief economist says perhaps reality is biting for businesses as it becomes clear falling interest rates will take time to 'work their magic'

ANZ chief economist says perhaps reality is biting for businesses as it becomes clear falling interest rates will take time to 'work their magic'

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway sees dominance of the 'traditional drivers of growth' in the New Zealand economy coming to an end

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway sees dominance of the 'traditional drivers of growth' in the New Zealand economy coming to an end

Latest Reserve Bank figures show of more than $8 billion of new mortgage commitments in December, over $2 billion was customers swapping loan providers

Latest Reserve Bank figures show of more than $8 billion of new mortgage commitments in December, over $2 billion was customers swapping loan providers

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the central bank will have to 'feel its way' as the OCR gets closer to its estimate of neutral and he doesn't see a return to 'ultra-low' rates seen during the early stages of the pandemic any time soon

RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the central bank will have to 'feel its way' as the OCR gets closer to its estimate of neutral and he doesn't see a return to 'ultra-low' rates seen during the early stages of the pandemic any time soon

Another monthly rise in the number of filled jobs in December may indicate that New Zealand's rate of unemployment is close to peaking

Another monthly rise in the number of filled jobs in December may indicate that New Zealand's rate of unemployment is close to peaking

HSBC economists expect the Official Cash Rate to be down to 3% by the third quarter of this year and see the economy growing 1.8% in 2025 and 2.5% next year

HSBC economists expect the Official Cash Rate to be down to 3% by the third quarter of this year and see the economy growing 1.8% in 2025 and 2.5% next year

BNZ chief economist Mike Jones says going short has 'tended to pay off' but he is 'compelled to offer a few competing viewpoints'

BNZ chief economist Mike Jones says going short has 'tended to pay off' but he is 'compelled to offer a few competing viewpoints'

Monthly retail spending figures ended the year on a stronger footing after much weakness in spending throughout 2024

Monthly retail spending figures ended the year on a stronger footing after much weakness in spending throughout 2024

Activity in NZ's services sector contracted further in December, matching a more contractionary performance in the month from the manufacturing sector as well

Activity in NZ's services sector contracted further in December, matching a more contractionary performance in the month from the manufacturing sector as well

David Hargreaves says the December quarter inflation figures to be released in the coming week should paint a 'so-far-so-good' picture, but further out the view looks rather more murky

David Hargreaves says the December quarter inflation figures to be released in the coming week should paint a 'so-far-so-good' picture, but further out the view looks rather more murky