Weak September quarter inflation points to more RBNZ stimulus

Consumer price index inflation undershoots RBNZ and market expectations in September quarter, coming in at 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year

23rd Oct 20, 11:11am by Jenée Tibshraeny

Image sourced from Pick Pik

Consumer prices didn’t increase as much as the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) and financial markets expected they would in the September quarter.

The latest Statistics New Zealand data shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% in the September quarter compared to the June quarter. This followed a -0.5% fall the previous quarter.

The CPI rose 1.4% in the September quarter compared to the September 2019 quarter - a drop from 1.5% in the June quarter.

The RBNZ, in its August Monetary Policy Statement, forecast a quarter-on-quarter change of 1.1% and an annual change of 1.8%. Bank economists were expecting readings of there-abouts or lower.

While the data is underwhleming, it's a little noisy as Statistics New Zealand did its three-yearly update on what's included in its CPI "basket of goods and services" and how these items are weighted.

'The case for more stimulus remains clear'

Nonetheless, ANZ senior economist, Liz Kendall, said: "A weak starting point for inflation has the potential to reinforce low inflation expectations, which are currently at dismal levels.

"And with the economic recovery set to stagnate, job losses expected to rise and a more challenging time ahead, inflation is set to be too low and unemployment too high. The case for more stimulus remains clear for now."

Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said the weak reading only supports the RBNZ's resolve to do more, early, to lower interest rates to boost inflation in an attempt to reach its 1% to 3% target range.

He expected the RBNZ to implement its Funding for Lending programme before the end of the year, and cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) into negative territory as early as February.

ASB economists, Mark Smith and Nick Tuffley, pencilled in a negative OCR from April next year.

The RBNZ in March 2020 said it would keep the OCR on hold for at least a year. However it doen't have a scheduled Monetary Policy Statement release planned for March 2021. So all eyes are on whether it will cut earlier.

Westpac senior economist, Michael Gordon, made the point the RBNZ has been aware the risks to its inflation outlook all lie to the downside, and extraordinary monetary policy support will be required for a long time.

Higher fruit and vege prices the main contributer

The data had a subdued impact on the New Zealand dollar, which fell from US66.8 cents to US66.7c.

Food was the main contributor to annual inflation, increasing 3.7%. This was driven by a 15% price increase in fruit and vegetables.

Housing and household utilities was another leading contributor, increasing by 2.6%. The rise in this group was influenced by higher prices for rents, purchase of housing, and property rates and related services.

Actual rentals for housing increased 3.1% nationwide. Regionally, rental prices increased 1.6% in Auckland, 5.1% in Wellington, and 1.6% in Canterbury.

Transport prices fell 3.9%, with private transport supplies and service.

'We forecast inflation to drop towards 0% next year'

Providing more commentary, Kerr said: "We forecast inflation to drop towards 0% next year.

"Our economy is likely to run well below its potential while our borders remain closed. The rising unemployment rate signals growing spare capacity in the economy, which places downward pressure on prices and wage growth.

"Domestically generated inflation (non-tradables) will weaken. The current environment is just not conducive to price hikes.

"Imported inflation (tradables) too will fall near-term. Because the Covid crisis has sapped demand not just here, but also around the world.

"The outlook has improved slightly for the global economy, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting an annual 4.4% contraction (previously -5.2%). However, that decline would still be the deepest since the 1930s Great Depression. And despite the upward revision, the IMF is projecting a longer and slower return to pre-Covid levels.

"The deflationary pressure on tradables of a more subdued recovery path also suggests that annual inflation will cool from here."

Consumer prices index

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Source: Statistics NZ

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111 Comments

by realterms | 23rd Oct 20, 11:14am 1603404872

Quick, more monetary stimulus!

Oh, wait, you mean that's doing something to asset prices...?

by Squishy | 23rd Oct 20, 11:23am 1603405437

Probably not a great move from a societal and, arguably, economic standpoint. None the less that's never dissuaded RBNZ before...

"Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes!" - David Farragut, American Admiral.

by Beanie | 23rd Oct 20, 12:27pm 1603409265

Can someone remind me why rampant inflation in asset prices is not enough to stop the sky from falling, we must debase our currency so we have inflation in food and other necessities too?

by J.C. | 23rd Oct 20, 12:54pm 1603410886

Can someone remind me why rampant inflation in asset prices is not enough to stop the sky from falling, we must debase our currency so we have inflation in food and other necessities too.

Good one Beanie. You get it. The real event happening is that money is being destroyed as a store of value and the price of human labour is also being decimated.

by Ezy | 23rd Oct 20, 3:42pm 1603420960

With all this MMT there'll come a time where it makes more sense measuring BTC in Gold https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-price-in-gold/

by pandanz | 24th Oct 20, 8:41am 1603482092

The Govt and Reserve bank need to show some imagination. These are hard times.
1) Give the reserve bank a housing inflation target.
2) Give it some tools to limit lending and money creation around housing investment, eg limit lending against assets to purchase price,
3) give banks some more parameters around housing lending - steer more into new builds
4) Steer more into business investment which would drive down interest rates to business

by lowercase capitalist | 23rd Oct 20, 3:43pm 1603421026

But the RBNZ isn't legally obliged to care about that so as far as they're concerned it doesn't exist. It really is a Micky mouse system.

by Squishy | 23rd Oct 20, 11:16am 1603404986

Mechanistically this makes sense in terms of discretionary spending. The asset price bubble in housing is probably drawing spending away from consumer goods which is causing CPI to slow. Consequently approaches that raise asset prices (ZIRP, NIRP, LSAP, FLP) likely have an inverse impact on CPI over the longer term. It's not that the prevailing prior logic wasn't true but that at its limits their model contains an oversight.

by J.C. | 23rd Oct 20, 12:57pm 1603411060

Mechanistically this makes sense in terms of discretionary spending.

I have mentioned this on interest dot before. If consumer spending is destroyed, the whole economy will cave in and asset prices 'should' collapse. This is counter-intuitive to what the ruling elite are thinking. That includes RBNZ.

by realterms | 23rd Oct 20, 1:18pm 1603412339

Well I think RBNZ would agree that they don't want destruction of consumer spending. How to go about that would be the difference I think.

by J.C. | 23rd Oct 20, 1:48pm 1603414121

Right. The RBNZ has explicitly stated that the 'wealth effect' mechanism is their bet.

by DoTheMath | 23rd Oct 20, 11:16am 1603404988

We need to revise the definition of inflation. It's not fit for purpose.

by Masher | 23rd Oct 20, 11:54am 1603407277

Funnily enough the definition of inflation used to merely be the increase in the money supply. Rising cost of goods, or what we now call inflation occurred as a result of this.

I'd say you'd have to go back a few decades to find economic text to reflect this however.

by donny11 | 23rd Oct 20, 12:27pm 1603409267

Most dictionary's still include mention to the money supply in its inflation definition. For example dictionary.com which is based on the Random house unabridged dictionary (from the 1960's) has the definition of inflation as: "Economics. a persistent, substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of currency"

The problem with inflation as gets discussed on this site every other day is that it measures "price rises of a constant, standard basket of consumer goods".
Is this a measure of inflation? Yes, certainly it is.
Is this a good measure of inflation? No, its a horrible measure.
Why?
1) By only including consumer goods, investment goods can be inflated at double digits (y/y), this inflation gets ignored by stats NZ & therefore by the RBNZ. This isn't good monetary policy. Creating a monetary environment that encourages double digit asset price inflation is not a good thing.

2) Further the "constant/standard" feature of the basket means that minions at statistics NZ can implement a array of quality & hedonic adjustments to drive the CPI number down. The extent to what this happens is impossible to know as Stat NZ doesn't provide the 'raw data" on the basket of goods. They only provide categories of goods.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 1:40pm 1603413653

Yip you look at M3 and visually, its more or less perfectly correlated with house price growth - well of course it is!

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/credit/money-supply

So we know that we have monetary inflation and its flowing into housing debt/house prices. Is that a good thing? I guess we're about to find out.

If you look at M3 growth - its averaged around 5-6% p.a. the last 10 years. So you could argue that we should have been raising rates, not dropping them as our core monetary inflation is quite high. But its not flowing into consumption items that are measured in the CPI which is what we argue is the reason why we have the OCR - but its broader than that, an this is why I think that model is flawed and will eventually be changed. And I think the Fed are starting to realise that with their comments about targeting more inflation because they can't find any in consumption prices.

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/credit/money-supply

by Nzdan | 23rd Oct 20, 11:17am 1603405020

What would the CPI be if House Price Inflation was included? Surely

by DoTheMath | 23rd Oct 20, 11:25am 1603405552

Its not just the omission of existing housing, it's how all of the variables are weighted. Housing in general only gets 15% of the total inflation impact.

by blobbles | 23rd Oct 20, 11:31am 1603405873

Exactly, where rents are increasingly making up between 30-50% of peoples income.

by J.C. | 23rd Oct 20, 12:59pm 1603411195

Exactly, where rents are increasingly making up between 30-50% of peoples income

The CPI is not designed to 'directly' represent the living costs of an individual.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 1:31pm 1603413084

But you can keep rent values relatively flat in terms of inflation by dropping interest rates and inflating the debt that supports the asset price increases for the rented property that are 10 0r 20% p.a.. Its a clever trick until interest rates hit zero.

by Flying high | 23rd Oct 20, 1:38pm 1603413522

Would you mind if it was the opposite, high inflation and companies charging more for goods and services ..

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 1:44pm 1603413871

You're a landlord right - would you not want to be charging more for your goods and services?

The problem we have is where the debt is and our ability to be able to service that in the future. If higher inflation means higher wages great - but could well now have deflation on our hands with high debt = high misery levels. i.e. no wage increases because the price level is falling but we still have debt to service. It will turn into a game of hot potato and the potato is the debt that can't be serviced and everyone will be throwing the potato at each other and saying 'yours'.

by lastredact | 23rd Oct 20, 11:52am 1603407138

I believe David Seymour is pushing for something along these lines.

by bw | 23rd Oct 20, 11:23am 1603405403

The lower % rates go, the lower any form of CPI will go. Wake up!

"Consumer prices didn’t increase as much...."
Of course!
Everyone is flat out paying more into the trapped debt of mortgage repayment! The cost of that debt; the % rate, is immaterial. It just gets capitalised.
Someone wrote this morning about $700k of value' having being created in the sale of a property they bought in 2012. One way or another, that's been translated into ....More Debt, Less Spending Power for someone.
Just imagine what that $700k could have done alternatively if the RBNZ etc hadn't 'encouraged' it to be tied up in property 'value'. Maybe even developed a business or two and employed people to go out and spend and increase the CPI! But we'll never know now.

by Andrewj | 23rd Oct 20, 11:31am 1603405884

turning into a basket case- slowly and then all at once.

Mankind has been here before

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2020/07/06/how-the-weimar-hyperinfl…

by fortunr | 23rd Oct 20, 11:39am 1603406371

Exactly right.
You know what was the latest inflation rate numbers in the EU, after so many years of zero / negative OCR ? 0.8% p.a.
And the latest inflation rate in Japan, after many, many years of super-cheap money ? 0.2% p.a.

The stupidity and the delusional thinking by the RBNZ that these very same measures will magically generate a different outcome in NZ are just eye-watering.

by J.C. | 23rd Oct 20, 11:55am 1603407315

The stupidity and the delusional thinking by the RBNZ that these very same measures will magically generate a different outcome in NZ are just eye-watering.

Well it could be different. Japan is a different animal. I remember when I first went there as a student, I was stunned to having to pay 500 yen for 20 envelopes from a local store. In 2011, you could buy 60 or so for 100 yen from Daiso. Food price inflation was flat for approx 10 years. Remember, Japan was the place where $10 coffees were reported during their epic bubble.

But there's something also really important. Japan is infinitely more productive and resourceful than NZ. They have been able to shift their economy to deal with the crippling effects of deflation. It aint pretty but companies like Uniqlo surfaced because of their economic woes.

But NZ and the Anglosphere seem to think they can do different and double down on bubble economics. I'm not yet convinced it can work.

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 12:27pm 1603409250

Hmmmmm....
Well it could be different. Japan is a different animal.

by J.C. | 23rd Oct 20, 1:56pm 1603414563

Audaxes, Japan might consider themselves lucky that they can't create asset bubbles with a few monetary adjustments. Their situation is quite dire but at least they have something to show for all the largesse (infrastructure). NZ and Australia seem to think they can do what Japan has done. I don't think so. We don't have the same industrial power and expertise nor do we have the private savings to draw on.

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 2:32pm 1603416760

The same as their peers I guess - Synchronized (still)

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 12:45pm 1603410313

Yip I think the Anglosphere has collectively become stupid and we're looking now at potentially centuries of subordination to Asia/China as a result.

This quote comes to mind:

“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

I think we have weak men in positions of influence (sorry stale, pale, males, but your in the firing line unfortunately as the shoe fits) who are in the process of creating hard times for those that follow them. We need men (and women!) to stand up and make the hard decisions now, not the easy ones. Because this can kicking is just going to make hard times for future generations. Lowering interest rates is the easy option in order to make the future harder. Its selfish and dumb (in my view...)

by Ezy | 23rd Oct 20, 3:58pm 1603421900

Agreed, and there's an uncomfortable conversation to be had about how we've lost our way in the West. We've chucked out the Judeo-Christian morals and values on which we built much of our society, and embraced post-modernism and relativism which have a lot to answer for. We need to wake up to the fact that there are hard and fast rules in this universe, and truth is not something you can just decide to be so.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 4:07pm 1603422458

Yes and anything that doesn't match one's own self interested narrative is 'fake news'.

by Quiet Desperation | 23rd Oct 20, 9:11pm 1603440702

Absolutely agree. I don't care for the hypocrisy of almost all organized religion, but this describes our current trajectory fairly well. Our society likes to think of itself as kind and charitable, but in truth most people are out to gain the most for themselves.

"We are moving toward a dictatorship of relativism which does not recognize anything as for certain and which has as its highest goal one's own ego and one's own desires." - Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger

“Gradually, the unthinkable becomes tolerable, then acceptable, then legal, then praised.” - Joni Eareckson Tada

by fat pat | 23rd Oct 20, 5:07pm 1603426061

I wonder if there's a risk of the NZD collapsing. All you'd need is a slight change in sentiment with more people wanting to get rid of their dollars before they loose more value. Slight uptick in money velocity with positive feedback. Jim Rickards says "once confidence in the dollar is lost it's very difficult to regain". I could be wrong but the NZD doesn't seem as stable as the USD, EUR, or JPY.

by brisket | 23rd Oct 20, 5:16pm 1603426579

I think the NZD will be resilient to outright panic because we have (relatively) strong and sane institutions. I don't think we could see Zimbabwe; but maybe, if confidence is dented, the kind of inflation we had in the 70s/80s, which would be quite painful enough at current debt levels.

by b21 | 23rd Oct 20, 11:26am 1603405582

Paying off debt is deflationary, less money for spending, we are a country deep in heaps of debt, as simple as that.

by HeavyG | 23rd Oct 20, 11:30am 1603405832

That's why you make the debt cheaper e.g. OCR cuts and FLP. We will get that CPI to 2% if it kills us (and by "us" I mean FHB's dreams).

by b21 | 23rd Oct 20, 11:45am 1603406727

I would not agree a 30y mortgage on a dump house that is not worth the wood is made of would make many FHB happy even if the rates fall to zero. Investors who don't have to live in it, maybe.

by Squishy | 23rd Oct 20, 11:34am 1603406081

I tend to thing the contraints on inflation have been driven by a lack of productivity and wage growth. Peak productivity for a New Zealand worker (GDP per hour worked) is almost a decade ago now.

“A country's ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker." - Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winning American economist.

by sparrow | 23rd Oct 20, 11:41am 1603406509

A decade... was that just before we started our mass tourism and mass population growth through immigration policies?

by VeryInterested | 23rd Oct 20, 5:04pm 1603425853

GDP grew but GDP per capita didn’t..... yet we were the rockstar economy.

by Te Kooti | 23rd Oct 20, 6:50pm 1603432252

The HSBC idiot who said that was full of himself, puddle deep analysis as you have quickly identified in 7 words.

by J.C. | 23rd Oct 20, 1:04pm 1603411491

“A country's ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker." - Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winning American economist.

I don't like this comment. While I somewhat agree with it, there's hints of slavery in how it can be put into practice.

by Nzdan | 23rd Oct 20, 1:38pm 1603413527

E.g. a 20% increase in pay across the board might translate to a 50% increase in worker output (albeit temporarily?). But if that doesn't translate into a 50% increase in workload, then you could have a 35% reduction in headcount.

Net result - individuals working harder and more unemployed.

by VeryInterested | 23rd Oct 20, 5:01pm 1603425706

We are in a world that is deep in heaps of debt. It has been growing since the Bretton Woods agreement turned us all into debt slaves after the second world war. The GFC could have bought this to an end but no one wants that decision on their hands. Instead it was decided to increase the debt bubble even further.

by HeavyG | 23rd Oct 20, 11:28am 1603405718

Computer says another OCR cut on 11 November. Do your job RBNZ.

by bw | 23rd Oct 20, 11:33am 1603405984

I believe the RBA has one of those as well - imaginatively called 'Martin', after the place they all work, Martin Place.
I wonder what ours is called? Whatever it is, Maxwell - as in Smart - isn't it.

by HeavyG | 23rd Oct 20, 11:36am 1603406197

Unfortunately it is likely a human computer on $500k a year, or likely a team on $3m a year. For a coffee and $1.50 I will whip up an app that could do the same.

by Noncents | 23rd Oct 20, 12:19pm 1603408780

Yes, it has always been the glaring issue with the theory that interest rates controlled inflation.

It that was true. It would indeed be a 5 minute coding job and a $200 smartphone, which could then pump out an answer each month.

by HeavyG | 23rd Oct 20, 12:27pm 1603409267

Modelling indicates OCR influences CPI, see https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/101245/rbnz-modelling-finds-economys-r…

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 12:46pm 1603410391

What happened here?

Oh - European "inflation"
Key ECB interest rates -currently -0.50%

by HeavyG | 23rd Oct 20, 12:45pm 1603410322

OCR to CPI graph please.

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 2:53pm 1603418016

The OCR has been cut in half five times since July 2008, when it was 8.0% to 0.25% today.

A basket of goods and services that cost $1.00 in quarter 2 of 2008 would have cost $1.21 in quarter 2 of 2020 - compound average annual rate 1.6% - courtesy of RBNZ inflation calculator.

by HeavyG | 23rd Oct 20, 1:58pm 1603414720

A bit shy of the 2% target (due to a large part to the failings of earlier RB Governor's to do their job i.e. cut OCR) but otherwise working as intended as in the 1-3% band.

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 2:41pm 1603417260

Exactly - I guess a continuous stream of OCR cuts are ahead of us to maintain the status quo of nearly near the target, until interest rates get so negative banks pass the costs to borrowers and more than likely favour purchasing government assets rather than extending credit to the private sector.

Except - Assistant Governor Hawkesby told Bloomberg that the RBNZ was thinking the same way as the Fed and would likely embrace a period of inflation above 2%.

And if that's not possible what will central banks think of next?

by Te Kooti | 23rd Oct 20, 2:17pm 1603415865

Directly buying houses and renting them out.

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 2:23pm 1603416223

The landlord is dead, long live the landord!

by Te Kooti | 23rd Oct 20, 2:55pm 1603418149

If the RBNZ buy houses directly, it least the tax payer benefits from higher prices in the future. No need to worry about CGT, all profit to the public purse.

by b21 | 23rd Oct 20, 3:04pm 1603418699

But that would be socialism! ;) Say no to making assets public if the people can benefit from it!

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 3:07pm 1603418823

This is what I've been thinking this year is that we (the Anglosphere) are moving unconsciously into communisim. Can we make it conscious now?

Central banks own everything and set the prices for everything. No free market.

by Te Kooti | 23rd Oct 20, 4:06pm 1603422398

I should be the new RBNZ Governor with this level of genius, plus I'm not pale IO, or stale.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 4:11pm 1603422696

Could change your name from Te Kooti to the modern day Karl Marx if you like? Do you have a beard?

by Te Kooti | 23rd Oct 20, 4:18pm 1603423084

No beard, the mask leaks diving.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 3:05pm 1603418757

We moving towards a communist state? Central banks/government have complete control over everything? The prices of houses, the prices of rent, the prices of airfares, the prices of food.

It looks like a slippery slope at the moment.

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 3:13pm 1603419223

Yep, the government could build houses and the RBNZ buy them - we could call it feudalism for houses as opposed to QE for sovereign bonds.
Vassals instead of citizens.

by treadlightly | 23rd Oct 20, 3:59pm 1603421977

The Reserve Bank is the government, Adrian Orr tells us, " the Reserve Bank balance sheet is just part of the Crown balance sheet" https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/114923477/why-reserve-bank-gover…
All spending attributable to the Treasury is paid for by the Reserve Bank creating currency on its behalf. Money is just typed into existence from a keyboard at the Reserve Bank despite whatever financial deception is used to try to disguise this fact, such as "borrowing".

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 4:53pm 1603425238

You better write to the Finance Minister to change the RBNZ's balance sheet format of asset claims on the government, less liabilities to same.

by treadlightly | 23rd Oct 20, 5:14pm 1603426454

It's just like the left hand owing money to the right hand of the same person. If you wish to understand government finance then study MMT, there are many good books on the subject. You won't learn anything useful from listening to mainstream economists they all suffer from "groupthink" as Prof Bill Mitchell tells us.

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 5:42pm 1603428164

Write another letter to the Minister of Finance to demand suspending the pretence of an independent central bank, suggest dissolving the RBNZ, and create a Treasury controlled regulatory body and let markets choose interest rate levels.

by treadlightly | 23rd Oct 20, 6:22pm 1603430555

Sure the Reserve Bank controls interest rates and that is monetary policy but that has nothing to do with fiscal policy and how the government finances itself. Politicians have made an undertaking not to influence the workings of the Reserve Bank but that doesn't make it less a part of the government. Is Adrian Orr wrong? Perhaps you should be writing a letter to him.

by Audaxes | 24th Oct 20, 11:16am 1603491389

Crown settlement account
Lastly, we act as the banker for the New Zealand Government. Like a normal bank, the Government can deposit surplus funds in their bank account with us, their Crown Settlement Account (CSA). It creates a liability on our balance sheet as it is money the Government can draw on. When the Government receives taxes, or sells a bond or bill, it produces an inflow into its bank account. Conversely, payments of welfare benefits, interest on Government bonds or repaying the principal of a bond as it matures, produces outflows from the CSA. Before COVID-19, the CSA typically had a positive balance up to $6 billion to manage the Crown’s cash flows.There was an overdraft facility available up to $5 billion, which has primarily been used by the Crown under normal circumstances to help manage very short-term mismatches created by large Crown cash flows, such as around a bond maturity.Link

by treadlightly | 24th Oct 20, 11:58am 1603493904

Economist Bill Mitchell tells us on his blog today "Of course, any central bank can purchase its own government’s debt – left pocket/right pocket stuff". " central banks buying the new debt, government buying and owning its own debt, end of story". "The debt issuance is a redundant part of the process and a hangover from past currency arrangements (pre 1971)". "The currency-issuing government neither has nor does not have currency as a ‘state’ variable. It just spends its currency into existence … boom, there it is – a number in a bank account".
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=46192

by HeavyG | 23rd Oct 20, 2:23pm 1603416210

QE.

by Audaxes | 23rd Oct 20, 2:46pm 1603417613

Exactly - banks piling into fixed interest government debt and exchanging it for floating rate government debt.

by VeryInterested | 23rd Oct 20, 5:10pm 1603426244

What a great example of the deflationary impact of improvements in technology. The technology = The App. Results in job losses and a reduction in pay as you just pay for the app and for someone to input the data and press a button.

by edw | 23rd Oct 20, 11:52am 1603407156

UBI UBI UBI

by jim hansford | 23rd Oct 20, 11:54am 1603407240

NZ.. the country that used monetary policy to swap its economy for a Housing market...That's no 8 wire intellect .... well done reserve bank

by Tradersam | 23rd Oct 20, 1:15pm 1603412149

Have said before there - there needs to be an insurrection on the Reserve Bank.

by Beanie | 23rd Oct 20, 1:36pm 1603413377

I think it used to be 10 years porridge for making a statement like that...think it was repealed tho??

by Squishy | 23rd Oct 20, 4:19pm 1603423166

If you give one dissenting man a bowl of nutritious gruel people will ask why schoolchildren must go hungry in a land of milk and honey. In many ways dissent is actually the least objectionable outcome of controlling a societal narrative, suppression of dissent would only create martyrs and cause more people to ask questions. Giving the public straw argument to desperately clasp at is a far easier mode of controlling what people think and feel. You are free but only in the frame which we have carefully created and curated. We want to give you the illusion of a freedom without creating a situation where you might feel compelled to do something so dangerous and foolish as genuinely excercise your own cognitive ability or stumble upon your own narrative. In reality the man who expresses dissent is no more free than a man in jail for a terrible crime or the child that is constrained by socioeconomically disadvantage.

by fortunr | 27th Oct 20, 5:02pm 1603771339

The issue is that they are a bunch of un-elected, unaccountable (supposedly "independent") bunch of incompetent plonkers who are free to wreck the financial system of NZ while pursuing reckless, short-sighted and one-sided "solutions" that have been repeatedly proven wrong overseas.

by Pusheen | 23rd Oct 20, 11:54am 1603407253

New/more team will take the govt pedestal soon, Jacinda have firm believe in one control mechanism (supply) then this November? RBNZ FLP 50bill, based on today's inflationary number? it could go to 75bill my estimate. OCR into 0, then minus by Q1 2021.
Here's a scene in regular A&E.. patient goes in/out unconscious, every parameters weaken, you see the frantic medics around try to do their bits, increase dosage of everything.. Confidence waning, everyone started to leave the room now...brave effort to all - but let's move on - Good luck.

by Noncents | 23rd Oct 20, 12:16pm 1603408613

I don't think we will see traditional inflation, rather we will see a reduction in range. Noticing it already. Things I could buy a few months ago are no longer "Imported" "Manufactured" or "stocked".

by GV 27 | 23rd Oct 20, 12:39pm 1603409971

You're close. Lower-end goods are now priced at mid-range goods. Mid-range goods priced at stonking premiums. And range is dwindling as to not stifle margin. Compare and contrast JB Hifi in Aus vs. JB Hifi in NZ; it's not just the ticket prices that are higher, but there's a fraction of their appliance range to choose from as well. Competition is good for consumers, but it's bad for business, so there is little incentive to compete on price.

by Roger Witherspoon | 23rd Oct 20, 12:42pm 1603410123

Yay, higher house prices. Er, that is good for everyone, isn't it?

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 12:46pm 1603410383

The higher they go the bigger the mess - so yay...sure?!

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 12:50pm 1603410619

“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

If we think we can keep avoiding our problems by lowering the OCR, we're simply making the future harder for ourselves.

We need much less debt relative to our GDP associated with residential property. Someone needs to have the balls to say this and actually take steps to make it so. Otherwise we're simply shitting in our own nest and expect it not to be uncomfortable or smell and wonder why the kids will hate us.

by fortunr | 27th Oct 20, 4:55pm 1603770904

the kids will not hate us.... the skilled and smart ones will simply leave NZ for better opportunities, as soon as things overseas get back to some normality. If I was young and skilled, I would definitely not stay around, with the prospect of mortgage-related or rent-related life-long servitude to the NZ housing Ponzi.

by bw | 23rd Oct 20, 1:11pm 1603411876

Of course! Silly me.....
It never was about Inflation, was it?!
The RBNZ; All of them, knew Inflation was never going to happen, so let's ask ourselves :
"What's all this 'stimulus' been about then?"
I guess we have to look at the results - Massive Gross Debt.
Usually, that policy goes with "Then we can inflate that Debt away with higher wages, that comes with more spending produced by a rising Inflation rate."
But they knew Inflation wasn't going to be the link in that chain to trigger wage rises. So what's been the purpose of all this Debt? Debt that never goes away, whatever is done to it - it just gets transferred.
TRANSFERRED. To me and you. By convincing us to assume it, for fear of missing out. By convincing us to give up the stores of hard savings put aside from spending foregone.
Then what, when the Gross Debt is all ours?
We already know. It's in theses latest CPI figures. It's what we all know; The RBNZ included, is coming one way or another. A Deflationary Bust. The Debt left for us all to pay without the comfort of asset prices supporting that debt. Then we can all work for less, to pay the debt we couldn't afford in the first place.
And what will be the clues it's all come to that? When those who currently hold the most expensive assets start to sell or, better, die off and pass it down to their inheritors; when all the share buy-backs have been funnelled into 401K's, retirement savings plans, and allowed the original owners to flee; when no one wants a bar of debt at any price (or lack thereof).
It's all been planned, and hidden under a false narrative of "But we must get Inflation up!".
That was never the intention; it was never going to happen and pretending it ever was is now obvious.
They have bought The System time, with our lives and our futures.
I thought it was going to be Bad, but I had no idea of the magnitude of Bad.

by alittle | 23rd Oct 20, 3:55pm 1603421712

They will keep on doing what they have been and coronavirus has given them a perfect excuse.

Need solution kickk them out for them to realize enough is enough. Time to reset.

by Fritz | 23rd Oct 20, 1:00pm 1603411255

Poor keep getting whacked. Big increases in fruit and veges will just further incentivise unhealthy diets.

by redcows1 | 23rd Oct 20, 1:32pm 1603413156

It's their own damn fault.
If they'd just get out there and pick them, the lazy sods, they wouldn't be poor would they.

by karl seastrand | 23rd Oct 20, 5:53pm 1603428810

Affects the poor more when alcohol, cigarettes and McDonalds go up

by stuart786786 | 23rd Oct 20, 1:30pm 1603413051

Low interest should help inflation but does it.

All it does is pump up asset price.

May be to control housing bubble may come with LVR to try and curb speculative demand.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 1:46pm 1603413988

I think we've seen enough now over the decades to say it could well be a false narrative/philosophy.

by linklater01 | 23rd Oct 20, 1:47pm 1603414020

According to the ANZ economist, what we need now, really really need now, IS MORE STIMULUS.

Is that so? What she means is that we need more cash pumped into the overheated property market. That's fine for all of us lucky enough to be property owners, but not so good for everybody else. It occurs to me that we need more fruit pickers and fewer economists.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Oct 20, 1:54pm 1603414499

Funny that eh - bank economists are sounding more and more like used car salesman. Got to keep selling that debt!

Anyone know what the typical bank econ gets paid?

by karl seastrand | 23rd Oct 20, 5:57pm 1603429020

I hear it is surprisingly low,($120K - 200K?) but the more you think about it the less surprising it actually is.

by Fritz | 23rd Oct 20, 7:39pm 1603435163

Chief economists north of 200k

by alittle | 23rd Oct 20, 2:23pm 1603416214

Half of small business in Europe may not survive..... Bloomberg News

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-22/half-of-europe-s-sma…

by rastus1 | 23rd Oct 20, 2:24pm 1603416275

Inflation. When you have to pay more for stuff. And these clowns think this is a good thing.
And the media or politicians don’t challenge it.
Tax by stealth as warren Buffett points out.

by realterms | 23rd Oct 20, 2:38pm 1603417098

... the politicians set the target

by fortunr | 24th Oct 20, 5:04pm 1603512275

Inflation of basic necessities like food, so that the poor will become poorer.
Inflation of assets, so that the rich will become richer.
Thanks to the RBNZ, we can now get them both for free. So a bunch of unelected bureaucrats at the helm of the RBNZ can freely wreck the social fabric of this country and trade what is left of our real economy for a gigantic Ponzi housing scheme (with all the associate risks of a dangerously unbalanced economy and compromised financial stability)... and nobody complains about it, including the Government.
Wow.

by mikekirk29 | 23rd Oct 20, 2:58pm 1603418333

QE works just look at Japan and EU
Just do some more
More stimulus blah blah
Pathetic

by JKB | 23rd Oct 20, 3:20pm 1603419612

The measure of inflation is clearly flawed.

by JKB | 23rd Oct 20, 3:20pm 1603419658

The measure of inflation is clearly flawed.

by alittle | 23rd Oct 20, 3:51pm 1603421504

In short more stimulus to push shares and housing prices up.

Well RBNZ has made its intention clear so not surprised as will find some reason to inflate the ponzi.

Anyway for them inflation is low but when one goes to the supermarket or any shopping ends up paying much more than than before and they say is low. Critearea to measure inflation has been to suit whom.

by Hummy | 23rd Oct 20, 7:06pm 1603433177

No rate cut. 0.7 % is going to push to 3%. Believe diesel kilometers registration did go up 5.7% on July 1.

by Pusheen | 23rd Oct 20, 10:36pm 1603445770

In Healthcare, medicine - the training is to use many tools necessary, sometimes contradict treatment but there's always the reason for it. Clearly the current RBNZ team is a predictable bunch, their approach is precisely what Mr. Orr stated in the early stage of worldwide pandemic.. becoming knee jerk reactionary. The team has the lever power to put things up, down, sideways, suspends, revoke, reinstate, stern warn the market, spook it. You name it, be creative - 2021 will be the year of striking for most Kiwis, simply will stop to support the top economic tier, pretend to be kind? yip, some of those young already pretend to do QR scan. No confidence in the policy started to bite.

by Alter Ego | 25th Oct 20, 9:58am 1603573099

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-state-goes-bankrupt-illinois-edit…

Does this sound familiar....as I always say....history repeats itself....and so do Politicians and Bankers.
Screw you Jack...I am alright is their motto....Unfortunately.

If the General Public have not woken up yet and found due cause for imprisonment, it serves them jolly well Right...and the Left is just as bad.

Theft is the only name for the scams of inflating away your debt for the Rich Tossers who have thrown you a bone to pick at.. while they sit all high and mighty and lawd it for a Knight Hood, or a Dame Hood. HOod used to be what a Gang Hang Out was called...how appropriate is that.?? Wakey Wakey World....All change, no change as they stole your coins and made a mint.....for yet another term. Middle for Diddle, is another.