Further large falls in dairy prices have economists predicting that the Reserve Bank will need to make more extensive cuts to official interest rates in response

Further large falls in dairy prices have economists predicting that the Reserve Bank will need to make more extensive cuts to official interest rates in response

By David Hargreaves

ASB economists are now picking that the Reserve Bank will completely unwind last year's interest rate hikes by October; that is they pick a further three consecutive cuts in rates between now and then.

And ANZ's economists also now think the RBNZ will drop the Official Cash Rate by a further three-quarters of a percent, but they pick the final reduction to 2.5% will take place in March.

The sharp re-evaluations from bank economists follow another dire night for New Zealand's dairy industry, with prices in the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction falling by 5.9%. Wholemilk power (WMP) plunged 10.8%.

That's the eighth consecutive fall in dairy auction prices, and the sharpest drop since the April 1 auction, taking prices to six-year lows. Last night's falls dashed hopes that prices might be starting to stabilise.

The latest result must put in jeopardy Fonterra's forecast milk price of $5.25 per kilogram of milk solids for the 2015-16 season, which had been seen by the market only weeks ago as a conservative estimate. ASB has now dropped its milk price forecast for this season to just $5 from $5.70.

ANZ, the country's largest dairy lender with about $11.3 billion loaned to the industry, is going even further and is now picking a milk price of just $4.50 for this season, down from its previous pick of $5-5.25. The breakeven point for farmers varies according to individual circumstances, but around $5.50 is often cited as a typical breakeven figure. If the economist's forecasts are right this will be two consecutive seasons of well-below breakeven returns.

Meanwhile Fonterra, which recently foreshadowed the axing of "hundreds" of jobs from its head office and support functions, had meetings of staff around the country yesterday. And today the company issued a non-committal statement, with no reference to overnight global developments, saying that it would "provide an update on the impact to its business structures following completion of consultation, which is expected later in July".

The New Zealand dollar was down about half a cent against the American currency overnight and has continued to slide today. The currency doesn't tend to react to dairy price movements as such. As much as anything, the fall in the value of the dollar will probably have reflected growing expectations that our interest rates will need cutting more sharply than earlier expected, more than a direct reflection of what happened in the auction itself. The US currency was also strong on the back of more upbeat news about its economy overnight. A short time ago the Kiwi dollar was trading just above US67c, which is a five-year low.

Key reasons for cuts

ASB economists have been close to the action in terms picking interest rate moves this year. They were the first of the big banks to publicly pick that there would be rate cuts. In a brief note issued this morning chief economist Nick Tuffley said the key reasons why the economics team were now picking three more interest rate cuts by October were:

  • Weakening business confidence
  • Weakening consumer confidence in dairy-focussed regions
  • Weak overnight dairy auction
  • A revised view to a slower recovery in dairy prices

"There are some uncertainties around when or if the last cut will be delivered.  The NZ dollar has already fallen substantially, and will also help prop up the economy and inflation.  And, low interest rates are already fuelling the housing market - further interest rate cuts will compound that strength (and macro-prudential concerns)," he said.

Tuffley and ASB rural economist Nathan Penny said the falling NZ dollar was partly offsetting some of the dairy auction price falls, but not by enough to prevent their downward milk price forecast revision.

"That said, we still view dairy’s long run prospects as largely positive.

"...The underlying demand growth from markets such as China is still there, but for the moment is being swamped by large (and mostly cyclical) increases in supply."

Among the big banks, ANZ economists have also been in the money in picking, particularly the timing, of interest rate action this year. They had recently picked a low-point for the OCR of 2.75% late this year, but now think a 2.5% bottom is likely - and they pick March for that.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie and rural economist Con Williams said the global dairy market was struggling to digest larger seasonal volumes from New Zealand, with many buyers’ immediate requirements covered.

'Little on the horizon'

"There is little on the horizon to suggest there will be a meaningful turnaround in international powder prices anytime soon."

They said that while the NZD/USD "is adjusting lower to the continued rout", dairy companies’ hedging policies meant the full benefit of a lower currency wouldn't all accrue to the 2015/16 milk price.

"At present we expect hedging will be around the early NZDUSD 0.70’s and given our expectations for milk powder prices this translates into a farm-gate milk price around the mid $4/kg MS mark. While cash-flow constraints are largely locked-in for farmers for the next 12 months, further forecast downgrades will extend these restrictions well into the start of 2017. This will of course further impact on confidence, investment, spending etc."

It was now clear that additional RBNZ monetary policy action (above and beyond previous expectations) was warranted. Bagrie and Williams said.

Worsening terms of trade

"At the June MPS [Monetary Policy Statement], the RBNZ felt that the outlook for the terms of trade (which it assumed troughed 13% below early 2014 peaks by the end of this year) justified around 50bps of easing. The NZD has of course moved lower since then, but the terms of trade look set to undershoot the RBNZ’s assumptions too.

"In fact, we believe the peak-to-trough fall in the terms of trade could be closer to 20%. All else being equal, a 1%pt fall in the terms of trade has historically knocked 0.15%pt off GDP growth over the subsequent 12 months. This therefore represents a 3% headwind to the economy. The NZD move of course provides some offset, but it is clear to us the economy will struggle to achieve the RBNZ’s current 3.2% growth forecast for the March 2016 year. This is of course at a time when inflation is already low."

The AgriHQ 2015-16 Farmgate Milk Price decreased 45c to $5.05 per kg milksolids following the latest auction. That now puts it below Fonterra’s 2015-16 milk price forecast of $5.25/kgMS.

AgriHQ dairy analyst Susan Kilsby said it would be "difficult for dairy commodity prices to increase significantly in the coming months as the quantity of milk powder available on GDT will rise with NZ’s seasonal increase in production”. 

 'Market underestimated the fall'

“The NZX Futures market anticipated whole milk powder (WMP) prices would fall overnight. However the market underestimated the size of the fall.

“The last time milk powder prices were this low was six years ago. At that time demand was limited due to the Global Financial Crisis.” 

As stated, Fonterra's official milk price forecast for the new season stands at a price of $5.25 per kilogram of milk solids, with $4.40 for the just-ended season - which compares with $8.40 a year ago.

In its latest Financial Stability Report in May, the Reserve Bank warned that financial stress in the dairy sector "could rise markedly" if prices remained at low levels in the 2015-16 season. The RBNZ says that despite many farms being in a position to manage down working expenses, around one-quarter of dairy farms are believed to have had negative cash flow for the 2014-15 season.

'Warning signs were clear'

Labour's finance spokesperson Grant Robertson said the "warning signs" were clear for everyone to see, "yet the Government continues to sit on its hands as more and more jobs and incomes are put at risk. Riding the wave of commodity prices was never going to be sustainable".

“Labour believes a responsible government would have made far greater efforts to build new industries, invest more in our regions and in Research and Development.

“National has squandered the opportunities of recent years and continues to deny the reality of an economy that is going from a stumble to a stagger,” Robertson said.

This is the full statement issued by Fonterra:

Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited today provided an update on the business review it announced in March this year.

Fonterra Chief Executive Theo Spierings said the purpose of the review is to ensure that Fonterra is best placed to respond to a rapidly changing global environment.

The initial phases had looked at the entire business in detail and had identified potential areas, including significant initiatives in procurement, business operations and working capital, where the Co-operative can unlock increased value for its owners.

The Co-operative’s leadership is now building these opportunities into defined plans that will drive further improvement across the business, allow Fonterra to fund its growth strategy and deliver stronger results.

“We have the right strategy and the long-term future of dairy is sound, however the world is changing and global dairy markets are increasingly volatile. To keep ahead of the game, we need to be more agile, reduce costs and generate value,” he said.

As part of the review, Fonterra has begun consulting staff on proposals to streamline its business structures. The consultation is being conducted globally starting with the Co-operative’s procurement, finance, information services, human resources, strategy and legal functions. Other parts of the business will follow in the coming months.

Fonterra will provide an update on the impact to its business structures following completion of consultation, which is expected later in July.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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Passing the grief to the lending side of the equation without a programme to clean out the over indebted farming peons seems short sighted. A demand for an immediate reduction in output would be a more logical knee jerk response.

When will our financial carnival barkers face the reality of this observation?

LOL - The unaddressed and unintended consequence of extend and pretend policy initiatives.

Prices haven't been helped by the news last week that New Zealand, the world's largest dairy exporter, had slashed interest rates, pushing its currency to a five-year low against the greenback.

A lower New Zealand currency means that farmers can endure lower global dairy prices before they have to cut herd numbers or reduce feeding, keeping milk supply ample Read more

its only an issue if one thinks it an issue
http://www.farmingshow.co.nz/on-demand/audio/john-key-the-pm-27/

“Labour believes a responsible government would have made far greater efforts to build new industries, invest more in our regions and in Research and Development."
OK Labour: What miraculous industries are these that you are talking about?

Yeah lets make this about the Labour party.
In the meantime most peoples income goes to interest payments to banks.....

In my part of the country -Canterbury the government could have made more efforts to address affordability in housing by making the local government and transport providing structures more responsive to residents needing new housing.

Affordable housing would have given households higher disposable incomes that could have been spent at local businesses and those same businesses because of lower housing costs would be able to attract more skilled staff without the same wage pressures.

All of this would have supported a diversified urban economy.

Instead the government has turned a blind eye to these problems. It has forced local institutions like the commissioner appointed Ecan into focusing on the rural economy, in particular to providing irrigation for the diary boom.

As Grant Robertson points out that was a 'put all your eggs in one basket' strategy and now the boom has busted it is looking pretty short sighted.

Labour is a JOKE they stood by and watched F&P move offshore costing over 1000 jobs. So easy for them to criticise but if they were in things would be the same if not worse.

How low could the dollar go? 60 cent US? or lower? The popularity of politicians will drop like a stone when cost of living goes up. The world economy is a time bomb.

The NZ$ could go to US 1.20, Tim! Take your last thought "The world economy is a time bomb". If it goes off, every man and their dog will want a lower currency to' help' their exporters, and the Big Dogs will get it......In the meantime? 60 cents or lower? A possibility. But if that was a certainty, it would be there...today....

While WMP is dropping you'll keep seeing it drop. doubt it'll go under 38, but the import prices of fuel with cause sticking around 55. As NZD drops consumer confidence will drop...and Auckland house prices will continue their meteoric rise as foreign money buys in cheap, although with a low dollar I think we'll see it spreading to other main centers as an eventual lift will be free money (in security) for the foreign and imported buyers. IMO.

That is a very good point. What overseas investor in their right mind would buy into Auckland right now? Sure, there could be a case if you just wanted a bolt hole, no expense spared. But if they are just an investor, it must be getting extremely risky now.

I think you fail to comprehend the Trillions of dollars that are sitting in China that they want to diversify into other assets outside their country. Large amounts of it is getting laundered into the NZ property market . I for one with access to large amounts of cash at my disposal would be buying as much property here as possible. You cannot beat turning what could be worthless paper into an asset.

What trillions of dollars? You mean, those that are already out there in The West? When China exports, it's exporters hold their payment off-shore, and buy assets. They've done that already. That's why asset prices are where they are. To spur production back home, those same exporters borrow local currency from their banks, to make their goods. ie: They have local debt matched by foreign assets. That's all well and good until that local debt gets called in! Given the performance of the China economy, arguably, that's not far away, if indeed it's not already here. As China slows and unpayable debts continue to rise, it's conceivable that funds will be repatriated; asset sold offshore, to make sure that local debts are repaid ( there are 'stiff' penalties awaiting anyone who doesn't pay!). The recent past of rampant corruption and debt financed China production may be ending with the current regime. It will take time, sure, so as not to upset the market. But is there room for more 'trillions' of local debt-for-foreign-assets swapping? Maybe not.

NO MORE INTEREST RATE CUTS! Time for NZ to live within its means, bite the bullet now and stop the Banks controlling us

Why? Would you like to see people suffer with higher interest rates?

There suffering now O.U. with low interest rates?

Apra will be requiring the aussie big four to hold more capital cutting margins so dont expect full cuts to be passed on

http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/anz-banking-group-dea...