The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50% as expected - but has surprised by indicating that this will be the peak, with no more rate rises seen.
The overall tone of the statement put out on Wednesday by the RBNZ was much more 'dovish' than expected. And it also indicated there was a split between members of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee as to whether there should be a 25 point increase to the OCR - or no increase at all.
The Kiwi dollar dropped sharply after the RBNZ announcement, quickly slumping from US62.5c to US61.7c. Wholesale interest rates, which have risen strongly in recent days, dropped very quickly also on the news.
Economists had increasingly expected the RBNZ would indicate a peak of perhaps 6%.
Instead, the central bank in its latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) has issued forecasts for the future level of the OCR that are quite similar to those issued in its previous MPS in February. It sees the OCR staying at 5.5% till the second half of next year before slowly declining.
Interestingly, the RBNZ indicated that its Monetary Policy Committee had considered two options - either raising the OCR by 25 points or by leaving it unchanged.
And for the first time since the MPC was established in April 2019 the record of its meeting sent out with the OCR records that the seven members of the MPC (four RBNZ staffers and three independents) actually took a vote. The vote result was by five to two in favour of the 25 point increase.
Previously the records of meeting have always shown members as 'reaching a consensus' on decisions.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner and senior strategist David Croy said they would call Wednesday's RBNZ decision "a conditional 'one and done' outcome, in that the RBNZ is now at its signalled peak, but what happens next depends on both incoming data and global events".
"Market pricing is still pricing in some risk of hikes, and we don’t expect that to change given the upside risks that we and other economists have been flagging. However, with the Summary Record of Meeting noting that MPC members were split 5-2 between hiking 25bp and pausing, it wouldn’t take much for markets to price out hikes altogether. But equally, if we were to see mortgage rates fall, markets might worry about that bringing the RBNZ back to the table, so to speak. In other words, expect more volatility," they said.
RBNZ plays down migration & budget
Two major concerns for the markets ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision were the potential inflationary impact of the recent surge in migration and also the impacts of the Government's Budget from last week, which economists have seen as potentially inflationary.
In the event, the RBNZ has played down both concerns.
Governor Adrian Orr said the MPC expects the pace of immigration to ease back toward pre-Covid-19 trend levels over coming quarters, with the current surge being temporary.
"While immigration has assisted to ease labour shortages, its net impact on overall spending is uncertain. The recent recovery in tourism spending, to around three-quarters of its pre-COVID-19 trend level, is also supporting demand.
"The repair and rebuild facing significant regions of the North Island — due to the recent severe weather events — will support economic activity, in particular the horizontal construction sector. The timing of this predominantly government investment will be spread over several years.
"Broader government spending is anticipated to decline in inflation-adjusted terms and in proportion to GDP.
"The Committee is confident that with interest rates remaining at a restrictive level for some time, consumer price inflation will return to within its target range of 1% to 3% per annum, while supporting maximum sustainable employment," Orr said.
In the record of the MPC meeting, the RBNZ said regarding the impact of Budget 2023: "Fiscal policy is projected to add to demand over the 2023/24 fiscal year, then dampen demand in subsequent years. Overall, fiscal policy will be contractionary on demand over the projection horizon. This reflects that government consumption, which is the larger share of government spending, is expected to fall as a share of GDP in coming years. Government investment is expected to continue to grow, in part due to the repair and rebuild work in the aftermath of the weather events. Fiscal policy is projected to be less contractionary than the Committee had assumed in February."
While the RBNZ was much less 'hawkish' than expected, the OCR is nevertheless now at its highest level since December 2008.
Wednesday's move followed a surprise 50 bps increase the RBNZ made at its last review in April 2023 and it means the OCR has been hiked by a whopping 525 bps from its record low emergency setting as of October 2021.
The speed of the rise is unprecedented. This is now the 12th consecutive increase to the OCR since the beginning of this tightening 'cycle' in October 2021 and it will mean the cash rate has been raised - at unprecedented speed - by a thumping 525 bps from its pandemic low of 0.25%.
Wednesday's increase follows eight consecutive hikes of at least 50 bps (with a 75-pointer thrown into the mix for good measure in November 2022).
The RBNZ is attempting to prompt a reduction in spending and to take heat out of an economy generating a lot of inflation. Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation peaked at 7.3% last year. While the latest CPI release for the March quarter showed a drop in annual inflation to 6.7% from 7.2% as of December 2022, this is still a long way outside the 1% to 3% range targeted by the RBNZ.
This is the statement from the Reserve Bank:
The Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 5.25% to 5.50%.
The Committee agreed the level of interest rates are constraining spending and inflation pressure. The OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future, to ensure that consumer price inflation returns to the 1% to 3% annual target range, while supporting maximum sustainable employment.
Global economic growth remains weak and inflation pressures are easing. This follows a period of significant monetary policy tightening by central banks internationally. International supply chain constraints have also eased following a period of disruption, and shipping costs have declined. The weaker global growth has led to lower export prices for New Zealand’s goods.
In New Zealand, inflation is expected to continue to decline from its peak and with it measures of inflation expectations. However, core inflation pressures will remain until capacity constraints ease further. While employment is above its maximum sustainable level, there are now signs of labour shortages easing and vacancies declining.
Consumer spending growth has eased and residential construction activity has declined, while house prices have returned to more sustainable levels. More generally, businesses are reporting slower demand for their goods and services, and weak investment intentions. Businesses report that a lack of demand, rather than labour shortages, is now the main constraint on activity.
There has been a return of net inward migration since international borders reopened. The Committee expects the pace of immigration to ease back toward pre-COVID-19 trend levels over coming quarters. While immigration has assisted to ease labour shortages, its net impact on overall spending is uncertain. The recent recovery in tourism spending, to around three-quarters of its pre-COVID-19 trend level, is also supporting demand.
The repair and rebuild facing significant regions of the North Island — due to the recent severe weather events — will support economic activity, in particular the horizontal construction sector. The timing of this predominantly government investment will be spread over several years. Broader government spending is anticipated to decline in inflation-adjusted terms and in proportion to GDP. The Committee is confident that with interest rates remaining at a restrictive level for some time, consumer price inflation will return to within its target range of 1% to 3% per annum, while supporting maximum sustainable employment.
Summary of Monetary Policy Committee meeting:
The Committee discussed recent developments in the New Zealand economy. The Committee agreed that monetary conditions are restricting spending and reducing inflationary pressure. However, current inflation remains high and spending will have to continue to slow to better match the supply capacity of the economy, so that consumer price inflation returns to its target range. While employment indicators reflect easing capacity pressures, they remain elevated.
Global economic growth has slowed below trend for most of our key trading partners. The Committee noted this weakness has been reflected in slowing demand for our goods exports, as seen in lower dairy and meat prices. For a number of years, COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have constrained global production, disrupted supply chains, and increased shipping costs. These global supply bottlenecks have eased and commodity prices – in particular oil prices – have remained below their peaks in early 2022. Overall, headline inflation is continuing to decline amongst our key trading partners. Nevertheless, core inflation remains elevated in most of our trading partner economies.
Members discussed developments in global financial markets. Recent banking stress in the United States and Europe has been contained by regulators so far but has added to financial market volatility, tighter credit conditions, and uncertainty regarding the global economic outlook. The impacts from these events on domestic financial conditions have been limited to date, and the New Zealand banking system is sound.
The Committee discussed domestic economic developments. Economic activity in New Zealand contracted by 0.6% in the December 2022 quarter. This contraction was unexpected. Business and residential investment and overall government spending contracted in the December 2022 quarter, and domestic spending remained flat. The near-term outlook for activity remains subdued.
In addition, annual CPI inflation was lower than assumed in the February Statement, easing to 6.7% in the March 2023 quarter. Short-term price pressure from recent severe weather events appears to have been less than initially assumed. Both annual non-tradables and tradables inflation were lower than expected, with a reduction in tradables inflation accounting for a larger share of the overall decline in inflation.
Members discussed the evidence that demand is slowing in those parts of the economy that are most sensitive to higher interest rates. The constraining impact of higher interest rates has been most visible in spending and economic activity related to housing. Residential investment has started to ease and falling consent numbers suggest it will continue to slow. Feedback from the industry suggests the pipeline of future building activity is subdued. The rebuild work following the recent floods is assumed to provide a small offset to this decline.
Members also discussed the impact interest rate increases were having on the housing market and household spending. House prices have continued to decline, while first home buyers were accounting for a larger share of new home purchases. Overall, current monetary policy is supporting a moderation in house prices to more sustainable levels. The wealth effects from this decline in house prices have contributed to slowing spending on durable goods since early 2022. In addition, the rate of credit growth for households has declined.
The Committee discussed evidence that elevated interest rates were constraining business activity. Businesses are reporting a general slowing in demand, a weaker outlook for investment, and business credit growth has declined. Businesses are also reporting that orders are now the main constraint on activity – after a period of it being labour availability.
The Committee noted that while the total number of international visitors remains below pre-COVID-19 levels, its recovery since the border was reopened has supported aggregate demand.
Members discussed the recent increase in net inward migration. The projections incorporate a stronger starting point for net inward migration. The Committee discussed what this stronger starting point for migration means for the economy. Overall, it suggests that spending and activity have been subdued, even in an environment of strong population growth. The increase in net inward migration is providing some relief in a very tight labour market, but the net impact on demand – including for housing – is uncertain, as is the impact on inflationary pressure.
Members noted this increase in migration is assumed to be temporary. Migration is assumed to fall back towards the average inflows seen in the years preceding COVID, and settle at an inflow of around 36,000 working age people per year. While the recent increase may partly reflect some pent-up demand to migrate to New Zealand, immigration rules have also been eased to alleviate acute labour shortages in some sectors. The Government recently made it temporarily possible for some migrants on work visas who had already been living in New Zealand for a period to apply for a special resident class visa. Given these new residents would have already been participating in the economy and the housing market as renters, it is expected this change will add only modest pressure to housing demand.
The Committee discussed likely economic impacts of recent severe weather events. Public infrastructure was significantly damaged. Clean-up, repair and rebuild work continues. While estimates are uncertain, the Committee assumes the recovery from these events will add about 1.5 percent to GDP spread out over a number of years.
Members discussed the impact of Budget 2023. Fiscal policy is projected to add to demand over the 2023/24 fiscal year, then dampen demand in subsequent years. Overall, fiscal policy will be contractionary on demand over the projection horizon. This reflects that government consumption, which is the larger share of government spending, is expected to fall as a share of GDP in coming years. Government investment is expected to continue to grow, in part due to the repair and rebuild work in the aftermath of the weather events. Fiscal policy is projected to be less contractionary than the Committee had assumed in February.
The Committee also discussed the functioning of the New Zealand Government bond market. This was particularly in the context of an expansion to the New Zealand Treasury’s bond issuance programme, and ongoing sales of bonds in the Large Scale Asset Purchase Programme portfolio. Overall, the market continues to function in line with historic norms. Notably spreads between government bond and swap rates have remained relatively stable.
The Committee discussed the New Zealand labour market. Employment is above its maximum sustainable level. The unemployment rate was 3.4% in the March 2023 quarter, still near record lows. However, same-job wage inflation was weaker than expected. The majority of maximum sustainable employment measures are now pointing to less labour market capacity pressure relative to March last year. Firms are reporting that labour is now less of a constraint to production. In addition, measures of skilled and unskilled labour shortages have eased.
Members discussed inflation expectations. Measures of the inflation expectations of businesses have eased, while household inflation expectations moved higher. It was noted that there was increasing evidence that New Zealand households were putting greater weight on recent past inflation outturns when setting their inflation expectations. This has likely contributed to persistence in domestic inflationary pressure as inflation has risen.
The Committee discussed evidence that monetary conditions are having a contractionary effect on the economy. Members were confident that the interest rates faced by firms and households have constrained spending and investment for some time. This reflects the significant increase in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) that has occurred since late 2021.
The Committee then discussed if monetary conditions were contractionary enough to get inflation back to the 1-3% target in a suitable timeframe. Overall, current mortgage rates and business lending rates were restrictive, supporting a further moderation in inflation. A normalisation in bank funding costs, including increases in retail term deposit rates, is expected to support the maintenance of current mortgage rates. Some households would further limit their spending as they rolled onto higher fixed mortgage rates. Debt servicing costs for households have risen from historically low levels during the pandemic, and are projected to rise further. In addition, the usual lags of monetary policy transmission mean that the full effects of past OCR increases will still take some time to occur.
Members discussed the key economic developments they would need to see in coming quarters to remain confident that lending rates around current levels remained sufficiently contractionary. The Committee noted that the projections incorporate a moderation in inflation and inflation expectations, a continued slowing in household spending growth, and a continued moderation in global inflationary pressure.
Members discussed the key risks to the outlook for activity and inflation. Views on the outlook for the inflationary impact of migration were mixed. Some members saw the risk that strong migration inflows could persist for longer than assumed in current projections and boost spending and inflation. Other members saw the risks as more balanced. In particular, there were not yet obvious signs that high rates of migration were affecting house prices and spending – and there were reasons to believe that current strength reflects pent up demand, and will prove temporary. In addition, migration could further alleviate labour shortages. There has also been a recent change in policy settings in Australia that eases the pathway to citizenship for emigrating New Zealanders. The effect of this on both the quantity and composition of net migration has yet to be seen.
Some members saw upside risk to tourism activity. New Zealand has already experienced a strong recovery in tourism. This has occurred at a time when the arrival of tourists from China has remained weak. A recovery in tourist arrivals from China would add demand in an already supply constrained sector.
The Committee discussed risks around the outlook for inflation expectations, notably the implications of evidence that New Zealand households were putting greater weight on recent past inflation outturns when setting their inflation expectations. Some members noted this could mean inflation expectations fall faster than in past cycles, as headline inflation declines. Others noted this behaviour could be asymmetric on the downside, and core inflation could prove stickier than currently assumed.
Members also discussed risks around the pass-through of past OCR increases to activity and inflation. Some members saw the risk of stronger than expected pass-through. Most notably, a large number of households are still facing the prospect of rolling onto higher fixed rate mortgages. This could constrain spending more than currently projected.
The Committee discussed the reaction to the April monetary policy review decision. The Committee’s view in April was that inflationary pressures were still elevated, with little risk of fallout from global bank failures. In addition, the Committee was of the view that rebuild activity following recent weather events would necessitate a rise in government investment. A 50 basis point OCR increase was seen as necessary to support retail interest rates, especially given the fall in wholesale rates that had occurred at the time.
The Committee discussed the stance of policy to be confirmed at this meeting and the outlook for the OCR. The Committee was comfortable with the projected forward path for the OCR. The Committee discussed the suitability of keeping the OCR on hold at 5.25% or increasing it to 5.50%. The Committee agreed that neither decision would cause unnecessary instability in output, interest rates, or the exchange rate.
Raising the OCR to 5.50% is consistent with the projections. This reflects the view that while monetary policy is having a moderating effect on demand at this point in time, a 25 basis point increase in the OCR will increase confidence that inflation falls back to the midpoint of the target band.
The case for keeping the OCR at 5.25% with the same forward projections rested on the recognition that monetary policy is having a sufficiently moderating effect on demand and inflation, and that we are yet to see the full effects of past tightening on the economy. A pause would also allow more time to assess the impact of the significant tightening, and the timing of any further increase that might be needed.
On Wednesday 24 May, the Committee took the decision to vote on the two options. By a majority of five votes to two, the Committee agreed to increase the OCR by 25 basis points from 5.25% to 5.50%.
The Monetary Policy Committee reached a consensus that interest rates will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future, to ensure consumer price inflation returns to the 1 to 3% target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment.
150 Comments
by HW2 | 24th May 23, 2:31pm 1684895511 - At the major trading banks?? Nope
That's because just yesterday you forecasted they were heading for zero..........again.
"When will we once again see house price rises exceed the prevailing rate of inflation?
by HW2 | 23rd May 23, 2:36pm
Ask yourself that question as your cash at bank returns zero percent.
Thanks Hemi. It will only be a short stay in the clubhouse per usual.
Good to see John Key and the ANZ Bank coming on board with the Teachings of the Prophet. Not quite there yet but very close.
Black Swan
Gee, really impressed that you know better than the Monetary Policy Committee.
"The Monetary Policy Committee reached a consensus that interest rates will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future, to ensure consumer price inflation returns to the 1 to 3% target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment."
"... the foreseeable future..."
Because you cannot have your cake & eat it.
"...labour market conditions will deteriorate, resulting in the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% by late-2024,..."
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/budget-economic-and-fisca…
I personally think 0.25 is the right call, they were slow to raise rates and no one wants them to overshoot and further wreck the economy, too many jobs will be sacrificed.
We have a manufacturing - engineering business and started to notice a decline in sales from mid Feb, we purchase goods from 8-10 suppliers, the slowdown becomes a chain reaction.
How can Orr guarantee that?
He can't, and didn't claim to either, despite some overly enthusiastic rhetoric from certain commentators.
He said an OCR peak of 5.5% was consistent with current projections. I would encourage everyone to go back and have a look what current projections were 12 months ago (I'll save you some time: it was an OCR peak of 4%).
Orr can guarantee no more rises, however I think the banks are more or less independent so anything could happen if it goes outside certain limits. We just continue to get smashed with inflation, which is pretty much what is happening anyway because the OCR is still way to low. We simply cannot afford a housing market crash its a simple as that for people that couldn't see this move coming.
Yvil
re: "NO MORE RISES, VERY WISE !!!"
If I had a mortgage or were looking to roll a term over I would be noting MPC comments - rather than that of the anonymous key board warriors claiming 0.5% next review - regarding the likely foreseeable future muted movement of the OCR and its consequent influence on mortgage interest rates.
While there is no certainty, in choosing a mortgage term I would be giving more weight to the signal from the MPC (and team of RBNZ economists' collective wisdom) who actually make the decisions of future OCR movements. While no certainties, we are likely to see some possible plateauing of mortgage rates for the near future.
HouseMouse
You make me laugh.
Here you were calling the ANZ economists fools who said that the OCR could go to 3.5% last year . . . you claiming it wouldn't go above 2% this cycle.
On the basis of not going above 2%. you said that mortgage interest rates would be back to 3% by the end of this year. That's been a really big ouch for you on your $400k plus mortgage . . . . you need to ensure that you don't let your ego keep tripping you up as you keep making numerous errors.
You really need to get over that inflated ego and start considering some of the comments by MPC, Treasury, and teams of bank economists rather than just simply outright dismissing them.
Cheers
RBNZ still sees 5.5 per cent as the peak for OCR. It anticipates cuts from the third quarter of 2024.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ocr-rates-to-rise-markets-braced-fo…
It's easy to assume we ain't seen nothing yet regards rising unemployment and tanking asset prices.
Onwards and upwards they say.
Didn't say that about the property market for the last decade?
"Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn."
Hello boomers!
- Chubbs
Oh Chubbs! don't go having a sook. Makes you sound like some sort of simpering whimp. As a boomer, I'm pretty happy to have a pile of assets! And get Govt super. You can thank us boomers for your hospitals, roads, Universities and schools, and the original infrastructure that you youngsters have failed to maintain some other time.....
Oh Vino - you've been tasting a little bit too much of your own product! Lay off it me old mate!
Hard to maintain the hospitals ya Boomers have filled up, or the roads being washed away so we can't see your ilk, the full Universities and schools - when the taxes that paid for said assets are not being paid for by your generation. Did you go to the 'University of Life'? Or was it the School of Hard Knocks?
And that paper money pile of assets you're on? Value diminishing by the day.
As Lebron once said "Aint no fun when the rabbit got the gun." You know who he is? The GOAT.
- Chubbs
Yeah not sure we can thank the boomers for anything, it was the prior generation we have to thanks for the roads, dams and other infrastructure that NZ does have. We can only “thank” the boomers for the 1980s financial reforms and other daft ideas that unleashed financial institutions and lead to rampant speculation, at the expense of investing for the future.
Signals the Reserve Bank IS:
- happy to see the NZD and its' purchasing power continue to decline
- keen to start providing a pathway for increased property speculation
A 100 basis point increase would have been reasonable, 50 basis points acceptable..
25 basis points is a signal the Reserve Bank is done fighting inflation.
Just think and remeber what happened when the NZD and what happened when it was the South Pacific peso. I had just brought 70 hectares for 135 000. Just out of Taupo all the intelligent ones said I was a fool the sky is going to fall NZ is f...Ed and we are all heading to Aus. Sound familiar. 18 myths later the dairy boom was full on. I could have sold that block for 800 000. Yet I held subdivided it up built houses on it and did way better over 20 yrs. So south Pacific peso is great
It was predictable they cannot afford to crash the housing market. Better that you keep paying inflated prices than the housing market going down further than it needs to. Its hold and wait, the question is WILL inflation eventually come down ? 6 months ? 1 year ? 2 years ?
Nah. House prices are done rising.
If people keep spending as now rates wont fall and FHBs cant afford to buy at the current rates and tons maybe 1/3 to 1/4 of mortgages will roll onto high rates before the end of 2024.
House prices will contiue to fall. Spend will drop further. Recession will come but likely in summer so at least the unemployed can hit the beach :)
I still reckon another .5 ocr hike to counter chippys budget but then the damage will sufgice. Maybe another 10 to 15% off house prices.
Mind u another black swan event and houses will be free with cornflakes.
Houses used to double every 10 years. This was due to stupid nimby zoning policies at all our major councils.
Thankfully now, central government has forced councils to accept far greater densities are required. So now we have the MDRS and NPS-UD overriding council foolishness. House prices won't double every 10 years for quite some some time. Maybe 20-30 years?
But sure - keep spouting the "houses double every seven years (guaranteed)" nonsense and I'll crow while you waste your money hoping for untaxed capital gains.
Where does it say this will be the last rise? I can't really even see it when reading between the lines and tea leave. They still leave themselves open to increase them again if inflation doesn't drop more. MY supermarket has increase a lot of their prices just in the last week. The banana index , average price of bananas, has also increased in my area.
I am not surprised. Th economy is definitely slowing down. One only has to read MSM to see that businesses are failing and people are being laid off. Agents and car dealers are doing it hard as the buyers are not there unlike during our fake boom years from 2020 to 2021. It was based simply on cheap finance. If you were silly or greedy enough to borrow too much at the emergency rates and are now in trouble financially then you can only blame yourself, in some cases your silly parents and the usual spruikers.
hmmm interesting. . . . I wonder if they will have to eat those words? there is an argument for housing to resume its upward trend from mid 2024. i.e. positive migration, higher wages and falling interest rates. there are obviously also arguments for the opposite. i.e. rising unemployment, recession, deficit etc. who really knows? What I can say is, with RBNZ's forward guidance, i'm not as nervous to shop for a rental property now, but perhaps its a stitch up? thoughts?
I suspect we could be at the peak of the cycle. Mortgage pain is only now really starting to bite and it's going to cause a big slowdown in the economy.
Just last week a friend in our street was saying how their mortgage is resetting and jumping by $1,000 per fortnight. They have no idea how they are going to manage that with a young family, but to start, all excess spending immediately stops. No coffees, no lunches out, no buying anything but necessities.
How many more people are going to be in the same boat?
A lot.
Businesses are in the same boat. The zombie businesses that survived on cheap credit are getting crunched. Both IRD and major banks are putting businesses into receivership and liquidation quickly follows. Unemployment will eventually rise. 2024 Will be awful.
Lest we forget that the Bank of Canada paused their rate hikes at 4.5% in January and had signaled cuts by year end.
Now inflation is on the rise again from the expected April figure of 4.1% to an actual 4.4%. (this is on top of 4.8% in April 2022)
So now it seems the BOC will raise rates again to at least 4.75%.
The Canadian govt, meanwhile, allowed banks to extend mortgage terms from a limit of 30 years, to up to 90 years (NINETY YEARS). Thus preventing any sustained meaningful drop in home prices.
About 30% of Canada mortgages were on floating terms that went from rates of 1.50% to 6.50%
It is insane. The Candian l Trudeau govt is insane (beaten on the insanity stakes only by the "podium of truth" TM).
Its a hangover from telling everyone what is best for them during Covid. Now it has spread to everything. The Canadian government realized, at the beginning of the reserve bank rate increases, that about 20% of mortgage holders would be underwater and have to sell. So to put this off they created a new law that allowed mortgages to be extended to infinity and beyond. Rather than the previous max of 30 years.
Thus protecting people from their own excessive borrowing and also protecting the banking system (Canada has 5 massive banks that are too big to fail -heard that somewhere before haven't we).
Canada also has the CMHC - a govt entity that insurers mortgages that started with less than 20% equity. (The buyer tacks on a 2% to 3% one off premium payment to their mortgage. That premium goes to the CMHC who then guarantee the loan with any big Canadian bank).
The bomb — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate
There are more examples. Very funny how the MSM have been silent on this front. If people had not posted copies of their mortgage documents I would not have believed it.
Banks staying very quiet also.
"Second, the Bank of Canada has given credence and authority to the Bay Street warning that there’s a ticking time bomb in household finances and the real estate market. Yes, variable-rate borrowers have had their payments stabilized because lenders have pushed out amortizations to 30, 50, 70 or even 90 years. But when renewing, loans must be reset to 25 years and the borrowed amount could be higher thanks to unpaid interest. Monthly payments could jump by 40%, Desjardins estimates."
The bomb (maybe) — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate
Yeah nah, nowhere does he say they won't be raising rates further.
All he said was, in support of raising to 5.5 - that that meet's their peak expectations - he doesn't even say that that IS the peak - just that that meets the expectation and that rates will stay restrictive for some time.
People really do hear whatever they want and then bleat it as if it were fact.
Let's see what the next round of inflation and immigration numbers say eh?
I do agree with other posters though - despite that - this is definitely a blink from Orr - I was expecting a .5 and a 'thou shalt not spend' type directive to the govt... but this is anything but.
Agreed, I couldn't see either, where Orr stated that this was the last rise for the foreseeable future. David Hargreaves, can you please point out what the RBNZ stated which made you write that "this will be the last rise" in the title of your article ? Thank you.
Agreed. This site is normally good on this but this is similar to the article were Jenne wrote "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says she would like to see small increases in houses prices" which was then used by commentators on here to claim the government would not let prices fall.
I've listened to that press conference and the PM never said that.
Property investors will be loving this. Massive immigration and slowly falling interest rates will soon start adding noticeable pressure on the housing stock. It’s going to feel like our economy has done nothing since 2017 except tick up a once unbelievable amount of debt while swapping a few hundred thousands Kiwis for immigrants.
Question for the crowd - despite expecting weak international demand and instability... The Reserve Bank are expecting massive export growth, while also predicting a flat GDP and fast rising unemployment. Does anyone have an idea of how those things can all co-exist?
He's careful with his wording, he actually says we in the middle of the crash so I guess another half again to fall yet
Economist Tony Alexander told AM on Wednesday only in hindsight will we know when the market has bottomed out. "We're somewhere in the middle of it at the moment"
He has been saying for a while that house prices have not reached the bottom yet and has been saying that for a long time. I have to agree with this as long as interest rates keep rising. IMO. What is happening in Australia is interesting as they have massive incoming migration and their interest rates havn't risen as much as NZs. But they have more competition. We seem to be paying a high price due to the lack of competition in NZ.
Yvil I have been correct in all my forecasts you on the other hand wrong most of time and tell huge story’s about making extra million by cutting down some trees. We all know to laugh at your comments why don’t you go and see that financial advisor, no point being bitter if you are over leveraged getting professional advice will help you
China’s most-traded Iron Ore futures contract in Dalian tumbled more than 4% to drop below 700 yuan/ton.
If iron ore prices continue to fall, the chance that the AUD falls further increases significantly, which would increase the risk of importing inflation.
What a day.
agnostium : You need to have a lay down and a cup of tea mate! Your time line for 9 comments tonight in 26 minutes 6.47pm 6.50pm 6.52pm 6.55pm 6.56pm 7.04pm 7.07pm 7.11pm 7.13pm, must have had dinner then a 10th comment at 8.56pm. Thanks for all your well thought out opinions you obviously had a bit to get off your chest!
US Fed Chair J Powell.
The buck, literally, stops and starts with the 16th Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank. His is the responsibility for the health of the Americans – and consequently the global economy. Yet, like a brain surgeon with a butter knife and a hammer, Powell’s got the bluntest of instruments to deal with the most complex of problems.
He has all the power, none of the control.
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