Coronavirus
David Hargreaves has a crunch of inflation expectations in which he points out that getting people to predict what they think inflation will be in future is not about whether they can pick a correct number or not
10th Aug 22, 8:30am
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David Hargreaves has a crunch of inflation expectations in which he points out that getting people to predict what they think inflation will be in future is not about whether they can pick a correct number or not
Influential RBNZ survey shows significant fall in expectations of inflation in two years time - but the fall is unlikely to deter the central bank from another 50 point OCR hike next week
8th Aug 22, 3:33pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows significant fall in expectations of inflation in two years time - but the fall is unlikely to deter the central bank from another 50 point OCR hike next week
Roger J Kerr says the markets are potentially under-estimating how quickly inflation could reduce over the second half of the year and, in turn, prompt central banks to ease their foot off the tight monetary policy brake a lot sooner than most imagined
8th Aug 22, 8:25am
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Roger J Kerr says the markets are potentially under-estimating how quickly inflation could reduce over the second half of the year and, in turn, prompt central banks to ease their foot off the tight monetary policy brake a lot sooner than most imagined
Roger J Kerr says instead of harking for an independent enquiry into past RBNZ past decisions, our energy and intellectual horsepower is better off addressing changes we could make that result in us being less vulnerable to boom/bust cycles
1st Aug 22, 8:29am
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Roger J Kerr says instead of harking for an independent enquiry into past RBNZ past decisions, our energy and intellectual horsepower is better off addressing changes we could make that result in us being less vulnerable to boom/bust cycles
Collapse in residential construction sentiment highlights another gloomy ANZ Business Outlook Survey
28th Jul 22, 1:17pm
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Collapse in residential construction sentiment highlights another gloomy ANZ Business Outlook Survey
Roger J Kerr says the reversal in US bond yields is telling us that the sentiment and expectations from both bond investors and borrowers is that they see lower inflation and lower interest rates in the future
25th Jul 22, 8:10am
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Roger J Kerr says the reversal in US bond yields is telling us that the sentiment and expectations from both bond investors and borrowers is that they see lower inflation and lower interest rates in the future
Roger J Kerr says US inflation has not quite peaked yet, but the peak is not far away
18th Jul 22, 8:17am
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Roger J Kerr says US inflation has not quite peaked yet, but the peak is not far away
David Hargreaves attempts to caution us against talking ourselves into a lingering economic downturn
12th Jul 22, 12:42pm
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David Hargreaves attempts to caution us against talking ourselves into a lingering economic downturn
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the June quarter did see a rebound in consumer spending, but thanks to inflation, the growth in dollars spent is outpacing the volume of transactions
11th Jul 22, 10:57am
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the June quarter did see a rebound in consumer spending, but thanks to inflation, the growth in dollars spent is outpacing the volume of transactions
Roger J Kerr asks: Why would the NZ dollar be on the same footing as the Japanese Yen?
11th Jul 22, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr asks: Why would the NZ dollar be on the same footing as the Japanese Yen?
ASB economists say tackling labour shortages looks to be the key to mitigating inflationary pressure
6th Jul 22, 8:00am
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ASB economists say tackling labour shortages looks to be the key to mitigating inflationary pressure
Kiwibank economists say the Reserve Bank may soften its tone around the outlook, acknowledging the waning strength in forward economic activity indicators
4th Jul 22, 2:40pm
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Kiwibank economists say the Reserve Bank may soften its tone around the outlook, acknowledging the waning strength in forward economic activity indicators
Roger J Kerr says just why New Zealand would be taking up such an aggressive foreign policy stance against our largest export/import trading partner, China, beggars belief
4th Jul 22, 8:29am
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Roger J Kerr says just why New Zealand would be taking up such an aggressive foreign policy stance against our largest export/import trading partner, China, beggars belief
ANZ economists say firms are increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for activity and profitability; cost and inflation pressures remain high; profit expectations have sagged to low levels similar to those seen after the GFC
30th Jun 22, 1:27pm
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ANZ economists say firms are increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for activity and profitability; cost and inflation pressures remain high; profit expectations have sagged to low levels similar to those seen after the GFC
Roger J Kerr says some cracks are starting to appear in the 'mighty US dollar' story
27th Jun 22, 8:31am
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Roger J Kerr says some cracks are starting to appear in the 'mighty US dollar' story
Roger J Kerr says the Fed appear to be unbelievably slow in reading the lead indicators for the US economy
20th Jun 22, 8:26am
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Roger J Kerr says the Fed appear to be unbelievably slow in reading the lead indicators for the US economy
[updated]
The economy shrank in the three months to March, contrary to the expectations of the Reserve Bank, which had forecast 0.7% growth
16th Jun 22, 10:54am
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The economy shrank in the three months to March, contrary to the expectations of the Reserve Bank, which had forecast 0.7% growth
NZIER's latest consensus forecasts show GDP growth in future years of only about 2%, while inflation's expected to now be more persistent
13th Jun 22, 2:33pm
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NZIER's latest consensus forecasts show GDP growth in future years of only about 2%, while inflation's expected to now be more persistent
This week's release of March quarter GDP figures is likely to reflect the impact of the surge of Omicron - but the immediate prospects are for a future slowdown in any case
13th Jun 22, 10:16am
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This week's release of March quarter GDP figures is likely to reflect the impact of the surge of Omicron - but the immediate prospects are for a future slowdown in any case
Roger J Kerr says the expected 'V' shaped recovery in the NZD/USD rate to 0.6800 has had a set-back with this latest US inflation result
13th Jun 22, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says the expected 'V' shaped recovery in the NZD/USD rate to 0.6800 has had a set-back with this latest US inflation result
David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and outlines the big issues, hopes and worries for the rest of 2022
12th Jun 22, 6:00am
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David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and outlines the big issues, hopes and worries for the rest of 2022
Roger J Kerr sees the NZ dollar sustaining its upward momentum. He also wants to see the RBNZ's remit extended to encourage proactivity in tackling the non-tradable inflation drivers
6th Jun 22, 9:15am
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Roger J Kerr sees the NZ dollar sustaining its upward momentum. He also wants to see the RBNZ's remit extended to encourage proactivity in tackling the non-tradable inflation drivers
ANZ's big profit, BNZ's super low cost to income ratio, and milestones for ANZ & ASB's mortgage books features of the big five banks' March quarter
1st Jun 22, 9:18am
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ANZ's big profit, BNZ's super low cost to income ratio, and milestones for ANZ & ASB's mortgage books features of the big five banks' March quarter
[updated]
The downbeat results from the ANZ Business Outlook survey suggest that the RBNZ may have to rethink its OCR hiking plan, according to BNZ economists
31st May 22, 1:24pm
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The downbeat results from the ANZ Business Outlook survey suggest that the RBNZ may have to rethink its OCR hiking plan, according to BNZ economists
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ is demanding respect and credibility - but it needs to earn it
30th May 22, 8:37am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ is demanding respect and credibility - but it needs to earn it