Business Confidence
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows an overall lift in business sentiment - but activity indicators in residential construction have hit a fresh low
29th Sep 22, 1:30pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows an overall lift in business sentiment - but activity indicators in residential construction have hit a fresh low
Roger J Kerr explains the changed Fed stance, why the Japanese intervened in currency markets, why NZ monetary policy needs to be tighter, and why the NZD has fallen more than some peers
26th Sep 22, 9:22am
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Roger J Kerr explains the changed Fed stance, why the Japanese intervened in currency markets, why NZ monetary policy needs to be tighter, and why the NZD has fallen more than some peers
Roger J Kerr points to evidence that rising interest rates have already 'smashed' the US housing market and inflation will soon follow sharply lower
19th Sep 22, 8:39am
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Roger J Kerr points to evidence that rising interest rates have already 'smashed' the US housing market and inflation will soon follow sharply lower
Roger J Kerr questions whether the historical paradigm that the USD currency value has a reliable inverse price relationship with crude oil prices is broken
12th Sep 22, 8:41am
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Roger J Kerr questions whether the historical paradigm that the USD currency value has a reliable inverse price relationship with crude oil prices is broken
Roger J Kerr says until there is a change in direction to lower US bond yields and higher US equity markets, the NZD/USD exchange rate will struggle to make meaningful gains
5th Sep 22, 8:40am
Roger J Kerr says until there is a change in direction to lower US bond yields and higher US equity markets, the NZD/USD exchange rate will struggle to make meaningful gains
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a lift in business sentiment - but inflation indicators remain 'far too high'
31st Aug 22, 1:27pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a lift in business sentiment - but inflation indicators remain 'far too high'
Roger J Kerr says given the much more stable food and energy prices, the US Fed’s inflation problem is already solving itself
29th Aug 22, 8:26am
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Roger J Kerr says given the much more stable food and energy prices, the US Fed’s inflation problem is already solving itself
Roger J Kerr says the markets are potentially under-estimating how quickly inflation could reduce over the second half of the year and, in turn, prompt central banks to ease their foot off the tight monetary policy brake a lot sooner than most imagined
8th Aug 22, 8:25am
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Roger J Kerr says the markets are potentially under-estimating how quickly inflation could reduce over the second half of the year and, in turn, prompt central banks to ease their foot off the tight monetary policy brake a lot sooner than most imagined
Roger J Kerr says instead of harking for an independent enquiry into past RBNZ past decisions, our energy and intellectual horsepower is better off addressing changes we could make that result in us being less vulnerable to boom/bust cycles
1st Aug 22, 8:29am
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Roger J Kerr says instead of harking for an independent enquiry into past RBNZ past decisions, our energy and intellectual horsepower is better off addressing changes we could make that result in us being less vulnerable to boom/bust cycles
Collapse in residential construction sentiment highlights another gloomy ANZ Business Outlook Survey
28th Jul 22, 1:17pm
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Collapse in residential construction sentiment highlights another gloomy ANZ Business Outlook Survey
BNZ economists see unemployment rate falling further and say unless there are soon signs 'the worm is turning' the RBNZ will have to contemplate 'a more aggressive interest rate track'
25th Jul 22, 3:07pm
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BNZ economists see unemployment rate falling further and say unless there are soon signs 'the worm is turning' the RBNZ will have to contemplate 'a more aggressive interest rate track'
Roger J Kerr says the reversal in US bond yields is telling us that the sentiment and expectations from both bond investors and borrowers is that they see lower inflation and lower interest rates in the future
25th Jul 22, 8:10am
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Roger J Kerr says the reversal in US bond yields is telling us that the sentiment and expectations from both bond investors and borrowers is that they see lower inflation and lower interest rates in the future
Roger J Kerr says US inflation has not quite peaked yet, but the peak is not far away
18th Jul 22, 8:17am
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Roger J Kerr says US inflation has not quite peaked yet, but the peak is not far away
Roger J Kerr asks: Why would the NZ dollar be on the same footing as the Japanese Yen?
11th Jul 22, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr asks: Why would the NZ dollar be on the same footing as the Japanese Yen?
ASB economists say tackling labour shortages looks to be the key to mitigating inflationary pressure
6th Jul 22, 8:00am
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ASB economists say tackling labour shortages looks to be the key to mitigating inflationary pressure
QSBO survey shows confidence about wider economy at lowest since first Covid lockdown; NZIER says survey unlikely to budge RBNZ from fast hiking plans
6th Jul 22, 6:54am
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QSBO survey shows confidence about wider economy at lowest since first Covid lockdown; NZIER says survey unlikely to budge RBNZ from fast hiking plans
Kiwibank economists say the Reserve Bank may soften its tone around the outlook, acknowledging the waning strength in forward economic activity indicators
4th Jul 22, 2:40pm
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Kiwibank economists say the Reserve Bank may soften its tone around the outlook, acknowledging the waning strength in forward economic activity indicators
Roger J Kerr says just why New Zealand would be taking up such an aggressive foreign policy stance against our largest export/import trading partner, China, beggars belief
4th Jul 22, 8:29am
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Roger J Kerr says just why New Zealand would be taking up such an aggressive foreign policy stance against our largest export/import trading partner, China, beggars belief
ANZ economists say firms are increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for activity and profitability; cost and inflation pressures remain high; profit expectations have sagged to low levels similar to those seen after the GFC
30th Jun 22, 1:27pm
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ANZ economists say firms are increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for activity and profitability; cost and inflation pressures remain high; profit expectations have sagged to low levels similar to those seen after the GFC
Roger J Kerr says some cracks are starting to appear in the 'mighty US dollar' story
27th Jun 22, 8:31am
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Roger J Kerr says some cracks are starting to appear in the 'mighty US dollar' story
Roger J Kerr says the Fed appear to be unbelievably slow in reading the lead indicators for the US economy
20th Jun 22, 8:26am
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Roger J Kerr says the Fed appear to be unbelievably slow in reading the lead indicators for the US economy
Roger J Kerr says the expected 'V' shaped recovery in the NZD/USD rate to 0.6800 has had a set-back with this latest US inflation result
13th Jun 22, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says the expected 'V' shaped recovery in the NZD/USD rate to 0.6800 has had a set-back with this latest US inflation result
Roger J Kerr sees the NZ dollar sustaining its upward momentum. He also wants to see the RBNZ's remit extended to encourage proactivity in tackling the non-tradable inflation drivers
6th Jun 22, 9:15am
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Roger J Kerr sees the NZ dollar sustaining its upward momentum. He also wants to see the RBNZ's remit extended to encourage proactivity in tackling the non-tradable inflation drivers
[updated]
The downbeat results from the ANZ Business Outlook survey suggest that the RBNZ may have to rethink its OCR hiking plan, according to BNZ economists
31st May 22, 1:24pm
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The downbeat results from the ANZ Business Outlook survey suggest that the RBNZ may have to rethink its OCR hiking plan, according to BNZ economists
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ is demanding respect and credibility - but it needs to earn it
30th May 22, 8:37am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ is demanding respect and credibility - but it needs to earn it